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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Bonds Jolted As Risk Of Global Energy Crisis Grows

March 3, 2026March 4, 2026

Although I’m of the opinion that the near-term, war-driven spike will fade more quickly than

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10 Comments on Bonds Jolted As Risk Of Global Energy Crisis Grows

Gas!

March 3, 2026March 4, 2026

The last time European gas prices were this insane, Vladimir Putin’s hordes of enlisted convicts

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3 Comments on Gas!

Trump Says Iran War Ahead Of Schedule, But May Take A While

March 2, 2026March 3, 2026

Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine may not know what America’s doing in Iran, but Donald

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11 Comments on Trump Says Iran War Ahead Of Schedule, But May Take A While

This Is Not Iraq, Hegseth Promises

March 2, 2026March 3, 2026

It’s not Iraq, but it’s not an overnight, quick fix either. That was the message

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9 Comments on This Is Not Iraq, Hegseth Promises

Key Factory Price Metric Soars Most Since 2020

March 2, 2026March 2, 2026

Surprise! I’m surprised anyway. Activity across the US manufacturing sector managed to expand for a

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1 Comment on Key Factory Price Metric Soars Most Since 2020

Oil To $100?

March 2, 2026March 3, 2026

Markets are, I’d argue, largely desensitized to geopolitical conflict. Part of that’s the 24-7, “always

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9 Comments on Oil To $100?

Chaos Reigns As Mideast War Widens

March 2, 2026March 3, 2026

The death toll in Iran rose near 600 on Monday, as US and Israeli strikes

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21 Comments on Chaos Reigns As Mideast War Widens

Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week

March 1, 2026March 2, 2026

Hard as it’ll be to focus on macroeconomic data amid the fallout from the weekend

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1 Comment on Jobs Report Collides With Iran War In Pivotal Week

After Khamenei, Who’s Next?

March 1, 2026March 2, 2026

As the bombs kept falling across Iran on Sunday, remaining high-level officials in the capital

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6 Comments on After Khamenei, Who’s Next?

The End Of Ali Khamenei

February 28, 2026March 2, 2026

He died as he lived: Tilting at windmills and waxing grandiloquent about the inevitable destruction of

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19 Comments on The End Of Ali Khamenei

Oil Moves To Front Burner With Iran On Fire

February 28, 2026March 2, 2026

If you’re worried about oil supplies in the long shadow of America’s latest effort to

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4 Comments on Oil Moves To Front Burner With Iran On Fire

Khamenei’s Demise Adds To Cost Of Putin’s Ukraine Folly

February 28, 2026March 1, 2026

On Saturday, as shell-shocked Iranians pondered Donald Trump’s generous bombing of their country, Dmitry Medvedev

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8 Comments on Khamenei’s Demise Adds To Cost Of Putin’s Ukraine Folly

Commencing ‘Operation Epic Fury’

February 28, 2026March 1, 2026

“Major combat operations in Iran.” Who’s excited?! Pete Hegseth, surely. I don’t know about anybody

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12 Comments on Commencing ‘Operation Epic Fury’

Weekly: Return Of The Roach Panic

February 27, 2026February 28, 2026

This time last week, I conjured October’s “roach” scare in the course of suggesting that

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9 Comments on Weekly: Return Of The Roach Panic

Uh-Oh! Trade Service Margins Soar Most Ever In PPI Scorcher

February 27, 2026February 28, 2026

It was hot in January. It usually is in the US post-pandemic. I’m referring to

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2 Comments on Uh-Oh! Trade Service Margins Soar Most Ever In PPI Scorcher

Asian Stocks Boom Amid Seoul ‘SUVU’

February 27, 2026February 28, 2026

Emigration figures suggest many Americans no longer view the US as the best place to

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Leave a Comment on Asian Stocks Boom Amid Seoul ‘SUVU’

Have You Heard The Good News?

February 26, 2026February 28, 2026

Have you heard the good news? There’s a Jesus joke there, but I’ve learned over

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6 Comments on Have You Heard The Good News?

On Nvidia. And A Lot Of Other Things.

February 26, 2026February 27, 2026

Full disclosure: I own Nvidia outside of an index fund. I bought it around $120.50

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6 Comments on On Nvidia. And A Lot Of Other Things.

Some Empire…

February 26, 2026February 27, 2026

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal ran a feature piece called “Americans Are Leaving

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13 Comments on Some Empire…

Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

February 25, 2026February 27, 2026

The high drama around Nvidia’s Q4 report was amplified on Wednesday afternoon in the US

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4 Comments on Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales

February 25, 2026February 26, 2026

Boy, I’ll tell you what: US housing’s in a bad, bad way. I realize this

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1 Comment on Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales

How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options

February 25, 2026February 26, 2026

“Doomers and boomers.” That’s the US equity options space in a nutshell. The description comes

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3 Comments on How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options

Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’

February 25, 2026February 26, 2026

SocGen’s Albert Edwards knows a thing or five about macroeconomic apocalypses, having predicted all of

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17 Comments on Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’

On Citrini’s 2028 AI Dystopia

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

I used to wonder if the genius, multilingual Bulgarian provocateur who taught me the tricks

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22 Comments on On Citrini’s 2028 AI Dystopia

Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

While painstakingly reviewing the dystopian near-future novella that destabilized markets early this week, I wrote,

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15 Comments on Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

Real US Home Values Are Still Shrinking

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

Real home values in America just shrank for a seventh consecutive month. “Just” isn’t quite

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3 Comments on Real US Home Values Are Still Shrinking

Lipstick On A Pig

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

Could’ve been worse. Seriously. It really could’ve been worse. One of this week’s only two

Read More

2 Comments on Lipstick On A Pig

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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