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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

The US Stock Market’s Officially Too Big To Fail

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Late last week, I called the US economy a Potemkin village and not for the

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7 Comments on The US Stock Market’s Officially Too Big To Fail

Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Where can one find some cheap stocks? Put differently, where are the bargains in the

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3 Comments on Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct

How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

If investors can overcome the psychological albatross that is “pure tariff chaos” and assuming cold-hearted

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5 Comments on How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up

The Tariff Ruling Isn’t About Tariffs

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Donald Trump’s Customs and Border Protection agency said they’ll stop collecting trade duties implemented under

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9 Comments on The Tariff Ruling Isn’t About Tariffs

‘A Real Mess’: US Consumers, Trade Partners Face ‘Pure Tariff Chaos’

February 22, 2026February 23, 2026

“To be very frank, it’s a real mess.” So said Itsunori Onodera during an interview

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4 Comments on ‘A Real Mess’: US Consumers, Trade Partners Face ‘Pure Tariff Chaos’

Funds Who Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs Face Stark Choice

February 22, 2026February 24, 2026

On Friday, while regaling reporters following the unfavorable Supreme Court ruling which crumbled a key

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10 Comments on Funds Who Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs Face Stark Choice

Weekly: Is Blue Owl The Private Credit Canary?

February 21, 2026February 23, 2026

Four months ago, when a couple of bankruptcies in the auto sector riled regional lenders

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8 Comments on Weekly: Is Blue Owl The Private Credit Canary?

Trump Castigates Supreme Court, Promises Even Higher Tariffs

February 20, 2026February 23, 2026

Donald Trump on Friday presided over an irritable, rambling press conference after the Supreme Court

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10 Comments on Trump Castigates Supreme Court, Promises Even Higher Tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Emergency Gets Thumbs Down From SCOTUS

February 20, 2026February 22, 2026

Illegal. That’s Donald Trump’s tariffs. At least when levied under The International Emergency Economic Powers

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8 Comments on Trump’s Tariff Emergency Gets Thumbs Down From SCOTUS

Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left

February 20, 2026February 21, 2026

Inflation’s not tamed in America. The Fed knows it. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting,

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3 Comments on Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left

Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth

February 20, 2026February 22, 2026

The US economy expanded at just half the expected pace during the final quarter of

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2 Comments on Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth

America’s ‘Jobless Boom’ Risks Becoming Techno Potemkin Village

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

Earlier this week, while editorializing around minutes from 2026’s first FOMC meeting, I said we’re

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15 Comments on America’s ‘Jobless Boom’ Risks Becoming Techno Potemkin Village

If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

How much faith do you have in large companies’ capacity to remain exceptionally profitable over

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1 Comment on If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell

‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

Donald Trump’s fond of boasting about being “locked and loaded” militarily, a threat he’s aimed

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16 Comments on ‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

Another Day, Another Terrible Read On US Housing

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

If you were looking for signs of life in the US housing market, you won’t

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2 Comments on Another Day, Another Terrible Read On US Housing

Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

“Most participants” at 2026’s first FOMC meeting judged that inflation in the US is still

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3 Comments on Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed

‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

Don’t look now, but “no landing” has (very quietly this time) become the consensus global

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6 Comments on ‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way

Will Trump Take The War Plunge In Iran?

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

Hesitant. That’s me when it comes to parroting an Axios report that a major war

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2 Comments on Will Trump Take The War Plunge In Iran?

Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

It’s a familiar dynamic: Mortgage rates in the US fell, prompting an uptick in refis

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2 Comments on Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle

Dispersion Trade ‘Cash-In’ Risks Index Vol Spike

February 18, 2026February 18, 2026

Last week, I highlighted a history-making bout of dispersion across large-cap US equities. Between an

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3 Comments on Dispersion Trade ‘Cash-In’ Risks Index Vol Spike

The Great Human Capital Devaluation Is Upon Us

February 17, 2026February 18, 2026

People. Who needs ’em? Not me. Or so I thought when I went into self-imposed

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22 Comments on The Great Human Capital Devaluation Is Upon Us

Somebody’s (Badly) Wrong About Software Stocks

February 17, 2026February 18, 2026

With US software stocks down — checks notes — 30% in four months, it’s fair

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8 Comments on Somebody’s (Badly) Wrong About Software Stocks

It’s Really, Really Rough Out There For Homebuilders

February 17, 2026February 18, 2026

Guess what? Unaffordable housing’s weighing on consumer psychology in America. Imagine that: When shelter’s unattainable,

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Leave a Comment on It’s Really, Really Rough Out There For Homebuilders

In Historic Shift, Money Managers Say Companies Are ‘Over-Investing’

February 17, 2026February 18, 2026

The title of this week’s first daily mailer was “How much is too much?” The

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Leave a Comment on In Historic Shift, Money Managers Say Companies Are ‘Over-Investing’

$1.5 Trillion In Two Years: AI Spending Forecasts Just Keep Rising

February 16, 2026February 17, 2026

I told you so. Not that you needed to be any sort of seer to

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2 Comments on $1.5 Trillion In Two Years: AI Spending Forecasts Just Keep Rising

Credit ETF Short Interest Explodes Amid Big-Tech Debt Binge

February 16, 2026February 17, 2026

You don’t have to look very far these days for evidence that banks and investors

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Leave a Comment on Credit ETF Short Interest Explodes Amid Big-Tech Debt Binge

‘Magnificent’ Mega-Cap Margins Mask ‘Surging’ C-Suite Expense Angst

February 16, 2026February 17, 2026

How profitable are the largest US companies? That’s kind of a trick question. The answer,

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1 Comment on ‘Magnificent’ Mega-Cap Margins Mask ‘Surging’ C-Suite Expense Angst

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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