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Featured

‘Vol Cubed’ Explodes, Eclipsing ‘Even Volmageddon’

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Trial Balloon

    November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

No Deal

April 11, 2026April 13, 2026

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement,” JD Vance said, after

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18 Comments on No Deal

When In Pakistan…

April 11, 2026April 12, 2026

This weekend, a US delegation led by ostensible “America First”er JD Vance had an opportunity to

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3 Comments on When In Pakistan…

Weekly: All Eyes On Islamabad

April 10, 2026April 12, 2026

Generally speaking, it’s not a good bet that benchmark US equities will fall six weeks

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9 Comments on Weekly: All Eyes On Islamabad

The Home Sellers Are Desperate

April 10, 2026April 11, 2026

In the US housing market, sellers are desperate. Amid an enormous imbalance favoring buyer leverage,

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5 Comments on The Home Sellers Are Desperate

15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low

April 10, 2026April 12, 2026

Congratulations to Donald Trump: He’s now the proud owner of the lowest consumer sentiment readout

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2 Comments on 15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low

Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge

April 10, 2026April 11, 2026

Headline inflation in the US jumped sharply last month, as surging oil prices pushed the

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6 Comments on Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge

Confusion Reigns As Netanyahu Sends Mixed Signals On Lebanon

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Or not. Under what I imagine was intense pressure from The

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6 Comments on Confusion Reigns As Netanyahu Sends Mixed Signals On Lebanon

Cursed

April 9, 2026April 9, 2026

I   “Monks, suppose this great earth were totally covered with water, and a man

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17 Comments on Cursed

Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

Underlying US inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure was uncomfortably warm for a third month

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2 Comments on Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth

Lebanon As Linchpin

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

“Israel’s right to defend itself does not justify inflicting massive destruction.” So said Kaja Kallas,

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13 Comments on Lebanon As Linchpin

Day One Violations

April 8, 2026April 10, 2026

If you were still unclear as to who’s actually in charge in Iran — and

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18 Comments on Day One Violations

Iran’s MIA Uranium And A ‘Beautiful Thing’

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

We’ve all heard enough from Pete Hegseth, but considering he’s America’s war czar and the

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12 Comments on Iran’s MIA Uranium And A ‘Beautiful Thing’

Mechanical Stock-Buying In Play On ‘Face-Ripper’ Rally

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

By now, all regular readers should be able to write their own script re: mechanical

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Leave a Comment on Mechanical Stock-Buying In Play On ‘Face-Ripper’ Rally

V-Day (Everybody’s A Winner!)

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

Risk sentiment was predictably buoyant Wednesday, as markets around the world cheered a two-week ceasefire

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8 Comments on V-Day (Everybody’s A Winner!)

Apocalypse Later

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

Donald Trump’s a peacemaker at heart. No, he never won a Nobel Peace Prize, but

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21 Comments on Apocalypse Later

‘Genocidal Lunatic’: Did Trump Finally Go Too Far?

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

“This is sickening.” So said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk on Tuesday

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11 Comments on ‘Genocidal Lunatic’: Did Trump Finally Go Too Far?

War Spreads Beyond Pump Prices For Anxious Americans

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

The biggest domestic political risk for Donald Trump from the war in Iran is obviously

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2 Comments on War Spreads Beyond Pump Prices For Anxious Americans

Dear Iran: Just Cut Trump In

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

“Way” back on March 14 — technically that was less than four weeks ago, but

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28 Comments on Dear Iran: Just Cut Trump In

‘Please Keep Bombing!’ Trump Says Iranians Beg For Airstrikes

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Fearing the world hadn’t met its daily crazy quota, Donald Trump convened an afternoon press

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33 Comments on ‘Please Keep Bombing!’ Trump Says Iranians Beg For Airstrikes

Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Bad news. (I know, I know: “What other kind of news is there these days?”)

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2 Comments on Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot

Doomsday Deadline

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Ibrahim Zolfaghari was back at it Monday. If America strikes Iran’s civilian infrastructure, “subsequent phases”

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8 Comments on Doomsday Deadline

Oh Hell

April 5, 2026April 7, 2026

Judging by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, this could be an “interesting” week, to employ a polite

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9 Comments on Oh Hell

Team 6 Mythos Grows In Wild Airman Rescue

April 5, 2026April 6, 2026

Who you gonna call? The missing American Wizzo whose plane was shot down during a

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19 Comments on Team 6 Mythos Grows In Wild Airman Rescue

Weekly: Back To Normal

April 4, 2026April 6, 2026

I realize many (most?) readers don’t like this framing, and in a lot of important

Read More

14 Comments on Weekly: Back To Normal

Downed Fighter Jet Is A Reminder: It’s Time To Go

April 3, 2026April 6, 2026

Take the win and go home. There’s only downside from here. Don’t say I didn’t

Read More

35 Comments on Downed Fighter Jet Is A Reminder: It’s Time To Go

US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.

April 3, 2026April 5, 2026

Overall hiring across the world’s largest economy reaccelerated dramatically last month after a sharp decline,

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2 Comments on US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.

The Dow Was 50,000

April 2, 2026April 5, 2026

They do ring bells at the top. You just have to listen. On February 11,

Read More

10 Comments on The Dow Was 50,000

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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