It’s still early (sort of), but 2026 is shaping up to be a helluva year for 25/25/25/25.

Regular readers will recognize that as a reference to an asset allocation alternative to the vaunted 60/40 split.

The post-pandemic macro zeitgeist, defined as it is by higher rates and elevated inflation, hasn’t been kind to bonds, which’ve become a source of portfolio volatility, undermining the most sacred of all correlation assumptions: That which says bond and stock returns are negatively correlated.

Better, this decade anyway, to split your capital evenly between equities, bonds, commodities and cold, hard cash the yield on which, it’s worth noting, is higher than headline and core inflation in many advanced economies.

There’s the chart. It’s from BofA’s Michael Hartnett, a “permanent portfolio” advocate for the better part of this decade (credit where it’s due).

As you can see, 25/25/25/25’s annualizing a 26% return this year, thanks in no small part to the commodities allocation. (If you’re curious, or haven’t checked, the S&P GSCI’s up 33% so far this year.)

Not only would 26%, if it held, count as the best year for 25/25/25/25 in a century, it’d also represent one of the best relative years versus 60/40 in history.

There’s the chart for that, also from Hartnett. Only in 1946 and 1973 did 25/25/25/25 outperform 60/40 by a wider margin than 2026 is currently tracking to produce.

Note that 2022, when raw materials were bolstered by the war in Ukraine and cash by panicked central bank rate hikes, currently counts as the third-best year on record for relative 25/25/25/25 outpeformance.

This allocation — i.e., according commodities and cash equal “respect” as bonds and stocks — is “obviously” not for everyone, Hartnett said. But this year’s returns, and the 2022 experience, may “force allocators to raise low exposure to commodities” and otherwise “buy natural resources.”