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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Americans Are Very, Very Worried About Their Jobs

February 16, 2026February 17, 2026

Not to belabor the point or otherwise lampoon a man who doesn’t take especially well

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5 Comments on Americans Are Very, Very Worried About Their Jobs

Hedging The Hyper-Spenders

February 15, 2026February 16, 2026

They’re the most creditworthy entities in the history of capitalism. And on many accounts, they’re

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4 Comments on Hedging The Hyper-Spenders

Does The 90% Crash In US Jobs Growth Guarantee A Recession?

February 15, 2026February 16, 2026

It’s a good thing payrolls are (allegedly, purportedly, suddenly) growing again in America, because if

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4 Comments on Does The 904 Crash In US Jobs Growth Guarantee A Recession?

Bonds, Consumers Doubt BLS Jobs Narrative With GDP Due

February 15, 2026February 16, 2026

Market participants will find out this week how quickly the world’s largest economy expanded during

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3 Comments on Bonds, Consumers Doubt BLS Jobs Narrative With GDP Due

Collapsing Competition Metric Reveals Rapid Pace Of American Monopolization

February 14, 2026February 16, 2026

There’s a raging, secular bull market in analysis of US corporate dominance. Just when you

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4 Comments on Collapsing Competition Metric Reveals Rapid Pace Of American Monopolization

Loan Growth In China Plunges To New Record Low

February 14, 2026February 15, 2026

Someone suggested this week that China will exit deflation in 2026. That’s not a strawman.

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1 Comment on Loan Growth In China Plunges To New Record Low

Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

February 13, 2026February 15, 2026

You wouldn’t know it from the main index levels (“The Dow is over 50,000 dollars!

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19 Comments on Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat

February 13, 2026February 14, 2026

Friday’s inflation report out of the US looked like a non-event at first blush, with

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2 Comments on US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat

Strategist Spots ‘Next Great Market Rotations’ For A ‘New World Order’

February 13, 2026February 15, 2026

It was Walter — not Wayne — Gretzky who coined the maxim, “Skate to where

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15 Comments on Strategist Spots ‘Next Great Market Rotations’ For A ‘New World Order’

Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Russia wants back in. To the club of US dollar users. There are two main

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5 Comments on Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

February 12, 2026February 14, 2026

If you own an equity index fund that tracks a cap-weighted, large-cap benchmark which doesn’t

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8 Comments on Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

America’s foremost housing cheerleader is “disappointed.” It’s hard to blame him. At the (considerable) risk

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Leave a Comment on Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

The American (Pipe) Dream

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Good news for America’s 45 million renter households: Thanks to lower mortgage rates and, secondarily,

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4 Comments on The American (Pipe) Dream

‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

If it feels to you like a lot’s happening across US equities in 2026 to

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3 Comments on ‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Remember when Donald Trump and the GOP were going to cut the deficit, pay off

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6 Comments on New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

China’s Still A Snowball

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

The Party in Beijing still has a lot of work to do warding off the

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3 Comments on China’s Still A Snowball

What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Somehow, the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, a veritable miracle relative both to

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6 Comments on What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Congratulations to Americans: They managed to score new records both for overall credit card debt

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4 Comments on Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Xi Jinping wants a “powerful” currency. Just ask him. He’ll tell you. In January of

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Leave a Comment on China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Don’t look now, but US labor costs just decelerated again, where “again” means that for

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Leave a Comment on US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

February 10, 2026February 10, 2026

The US consumer’s stumbling. Or at least that was the message from the Commerce Department

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3 Comments on American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Maybe the investment grade primary market will eventually balk at absorbing a deluge of big-tech

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4 Comments on Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Who’s bearish on the world’s largest economy? Overtly bearish, I mean? Nobody. The answer’s nobody.

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2 Comments on Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Given how ubiquitous the hyper-scaler capex debate is in 2026, it’s probably dawned on a

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5 Comments on The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

It’s not just Danish pension operators. More often than not in recent years, the de-dollarization

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1 Comment on Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Spend it if you got it! Or hell, spend it even if you don’t. Lord

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3 Comments on In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

America’s Tarnished Statistics Agency Takes Center Stage

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Barring another US government shutdown (don’t laugh: the situation inside the Beltway’s even more dysfunctional

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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