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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Takaichi Landslide Spotlights Japanese Assets Amid Spending Worries

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Sanae Takaichi’s gamble paid off. When Japan’s first female prime minister called a snap legislative

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Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

February 7, 2026February 9, 2026

In August of 2020, amid a late-summer melt-up in high-flying US tech stocks (remember “The

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4 Comments on Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

February 6, 2026February 9, 2026

This was the week Anthropic took the lead in the AI race. Or at least

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23 Comments on Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

“Way back” Tuesday, I noted that street forecasts for full-year hyper-scaler spending on the AI

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3 Comments on Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

Fear The Steepener?

February 6, 2026February 7, 2026

Don’t fear the inversion, fear the steepener. Although a bit “inside baseball” vis-à-vis the casual

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Happy Or Sad? It Depends On The Size Of Your Portfolio

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

The Trump administration enjoyed some additional, minor relief on the consumer sentiment front Friday, when

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Amazon’s $200 Billion Capex Guide May Scare Investors

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

It was all about AWS when Amazon reported results after the bell on Wall Street

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11 Comments on Amazon’s $200 Billion Capex Guide May Scare Investors

McElligott Has Unified Theory For Bitcoin, SaaS Plunge, Gold Rally

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

If you’re searching for a unified, Occam’s razor-friendly theory to explain gold’s meteoric rise over

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7 Comments on McElligott Has Unified Theory For Bitcoin, SaaS Plunge, Gold Rally

‘Trustless’ Bitcoin Confronts Another Confidence Crisis

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

Money, like faith, is the product of the human imagination. — David McWilliams in The

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14 Comments on ‘Trustless’ Bitcoin Confronts Another Confidence Crisis

Terrible Trio Of US Labor Market Updates ‘Dims Expectations’

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

All around bad. That’s an apt description of the trio of US labor market indicators

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4 Comments on Terrible Trio Of US Labor Market Updates ‘Dims Expectations’

White Collar Job Openings Evaporate In America

February 5, 2026February 5, 2026

The hits just keep comin’. Shortly after a trio of private-sector updates cast a pall

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Alphabet Posts Strong Growth In First Quarter As AI Leader

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

The stakes were high and, thanks to the company’s furious comeback in the race to

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5 Comments on Alphabet Posts Strong Growth In First Quarter As AI Leader

How AI Went From Tailwind To Headwind For Stocks

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

Earlier this week, I mentioned that forecasts for hyper-scaler capex in 2026 are up more

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1 Comment on How AI Went From Tailwind To Headwind For Stocks

‘Loan-ageddon’ Looms As SaaS Scare Menaces Private Credit

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

“Well what the hell are we supposed to do with it?” “I dunno. Should’ve thought

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2 Comments on ‘Loan-ageddon’ Looms As SaaS Scare Menaces Private Credit

US Services Sector Steady, But Stagflation Lingers

February 4, 2026February 4, 2026

The US services sector’s generally fine. In case you harbored any doubts on that front.

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Trump Tariffs Triggered Dramatic Hiring Slowdown, New Data Shows

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

Mind the revisions! Private sector hiring in the US was far slower than expected last

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1 Comment on Trump Tariffs Triggered Dramatic Hiring Slowdown, New Data Shows

Anthropic Threat Sparks ‘SaaSpocalypse’

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

It won’t be painless. The AI revolution, I mean. I can’t say I’ve consulted the

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12 Comments on Anthropic Threat Sparks ‘SaaSpocalypse’

Tech Still Has An Oracle Problem

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

Oracle’s down 50% from last year’s vertiginous highs. Did anyone else notice that? I’m not

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14 Comments on Tech Still Has An Oracle Problem

Gold And Silver Are More Meme Stocks Than Money

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

I’ll say it again: Excessive volatility can negate store of value considerations when it comes

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6 Comments on Gold And Silver Are More Meme Stocks Than Money

Credibility Is America’s Real ‘Deficit Problem’

February 2, 2026February 4, 2026

It’s a good thing there’s no viable alternative to the dollar and US Treasurys, because

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5 Comments on Credibility Is America’s Real ‘Deficit Problem’

The Housing Market Is One Giant Antinomy

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

There are two ways to describe the US housing market. One says this remains among

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Fine Print Throws Cold Water On Wild US Factory Rebound

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

“We are so back.” Factory activity in America picked up dramatically at the beginning of

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2 Comments on Fine Print Throws Cold Water On Wild US Factory Rebound

Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

How’s earnings season going so far in the US? That’s a trick question. Don’t answer

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4 Comments on Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?

Precious Metals Carnage Spills Over, Bleeds Crowded Trades

February 2, 2026February 2, 2026

It got worse for precious metals on Monday if you can believe it. At one

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1 Comment on Precious Metals Carnage Spills Over, Bleeds Crowded Trades

What The Gold Bubble Says About The Nature Of Money

February 1, 2026February 2, 2026

What are the desirable characteristics of money? It’s a straightforward question, and it’s tempting to

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10 Comments on What The Gold Bubble Says About The Nature Of Money

US Jobs Trajectory Questioned Amid Partial Government Shutdown

February 1, 2026February 2, 2026

As of this moment, right now, it isn’t entirely clear what, if any, impact the

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Weekly: The Decade Dogma Died

January 31, 2026February 2, 2026

Over the four decades we associate with the onset and perpetuation of shareholder capitalism, hyper-globalization,

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12 Comments on Weekly: The Decade Dogma Died

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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