Donald Trump has an idea.
When that’s the starting point, things tend to get dicey in a hurry.
That’s not to say the outcome’s always bad. A decade on from his usurpation of the world’s highest office, we’re still here to fret about his decisions. That says a lot considering how many times critics have predicted the imminent apocalypse.
The list of caveats (i.e., what comes after “however”) could fill a library, though, and on Sunday, Trump announced two dramatic escalations in the standoff with Iran following peace talks in Pakistan which failed to produce a lasting truce.
First, the US Navy’s taking matters in the Strait of Hormuz into its own hands, where that means all traffic into and out of the waterway will henceforth be “directed,” for lack of a better word, by US warships.
“At some point,” Trump said, everyone will be allowed to “go in and go out,” but for now, the Strait’s subject to a US blockade. That presumably means Iran won’t be allowed to sell its oil.
Tehran’s extorting the world by saying, of the Strait, “‘There may be a mine out there somewhere,’ that nobody knows about but them,” Trump complained. Love him or hate him, that’s an accurate description of this situation.
The US is set to initiate an operation aimed at removing any mines the IRGC might’ve laid. In the event Iranian military assets fire on US vessels conducting de-mining operations, those assets will be, to use Trump’s language, “BLOWN TO HELL!”
Unlike last week’s genocide warning, that’s not a threat. That’s a promise, which is to say those orders are surely already in effect. So, if you’re the IRGC and you’re going to fire on a US de-mining convoy, you better “stick and move,” so to speak.
In addition — this is the second escalation — Trump ordered the US Navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran” to pass through the Strait.
So, that racket’s over. Or at least until, as I’ve repeatedly suggested, Iran’s willing to share those tolls with Trump in some manner of joint security deal. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump said.
That threat’s likewise credible. The US pursued, boarded and seized multiple vessels last year in the lead-up to the raid to capture Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.
“Iran will not be allowed to profit” from the Strait, Trump said, summing things up and adding that the US is “LOCKED AND LOADED” and prepared to “finish up the little that is left of Iran.”
Trump repeated what JD Vance said after 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad: The real issue here’s the nuclear program and specifically Iran’s refusal to forswear a weapon.
If I were Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, I’d be asking if there’s any room left in whatever hole they’re hiding Mojtaba’s hospital bed. Because this sounds like a green light to Israel, not necessarily to start bombing Iran’s infrastructure again, but perhaps to carry out one or two additional “decapitation” strikes.
It has never made much sense for the US Navy to be allowing Iranian-linked ships to pass freely, carrying Iranian oil, Chinese weapons, etc. while Iran blocks other shipping.
I think Trump wanted to keep oil prices down, was afraid of angering China, and thought bombing alone would achieve his goals, whatever they were.
It’s oil. If Iranian barrels are blocked and presumably Houthis attach the bab al mandab then we’re royally screwed.
To be seen, what happens if
– Houthis close off the Red Sea
– China sends PLA destroyers to escort Chinese tankers through the US blockade
The blockade is a good move. Been waiting for this card to be played.
How so?
Things will get interesting if Trump truly sends the US Navy after the Chinese tankers that have filled up with Saudi and Iraqi oil. No matter what Hegseth says, I doubt we’re ready to open a second front with the second largest navy in the world.
We would be giving China a good reason to supply Iran with some sort of anti-ship weapon, no? Short-term, Russian oil sales may benefit from the U.S. closing the Strait, but farther out they too may prefer assisting Iran with arms, as any Iranian success would keep oil prices high and demand for Russian oil “stronger for longer.” (It also would give Putin a bargaining chip with which to seek concessions in regards to Ukraine.) That could potentially put us in “world conflict” territory (which is exactly what you should expect when you pursue mercantilist, imperialist policies.)
My thoughts precisely.
Screw Taiwan.
Is the Drumphie/Xi standoff going to happen in the Persian Gulf?
Are we in the midst of looking at the Persian (Tonkin) Gulf incident?
Stay tuned.
If you mean any confrontation between the U.S. and China should come to a head sooner rather than later, I can at least understand the point. If you mean that the U.S. should abandon Taiwan entirely I disagree.
The nuclear thing is getting old. We get it, it polls the best out of a bad bunch, but it’s such B.S..
Blockading the blockade and no tolls unless we collect tolls, is mad man stuff.
Image waking up in the U.S. today and reading that China booked the strait. That how China is waking up today. Not a good P.R. Move there. Feels like it’s a green light to answer bad behavior with bad behavior.
The assumption (accidental, implicit, or otherwise) in some of these comments that Xi Jinping’s somehow excited about this situation is misguided. What he’s seen out of the US military over the last month isn’t comforting for the PLA. This is a military (America’s) which, however constrained in its capacity to achieve goals historically unachievable by air power alone, apparently retains unparalleled targeting capabilities for a whole helluva lot of fire power that can be brought to bear very quickly against a conventional force anywhere in the world. If you’re the PLA, it would’ve been nice to see a misstep somewhere in the actual execution of the air and naval campaign (i.e., forgetting whether Trump did or didn’t achieve his Iran-specific goals, and setting aside what Iran’s been able to do in the Strait). There hasn’t really been any such misstep. The US war machine’s functioning at a very high level. I would’ve expected more than a couple of lost planes at this juncture even considering Israel’s previous efforts to degrade the IRGC’s air defenses.
Wouldn’t the downed pilot rescues possibly qualify? I don’t know what to believe anymore, but the heroic rescue of the downed weapons officer had a distinctly Jessica Lynch vibe if you ask me. Some critiques/analyses I’ve read have suggested that even if the rescues were as described, they were extraordinarily costly – especially the second one, which has alternately been speculated to have been an aborted/failed enriched uranium raid dressed up as a rescue.
I don’t know anything about military hardware or operations, but the hyperbolic description of the rescues (by Hegseth mostly) despite the mundane sacrificing of expensive aircraft and deployment of large numbers of personnel does seem fishy to me, especially since neither of the returned airmen has had any public exposure that I am aware of. I mean if Trump and Hegseth wanted to distract from how things are actually going, wouldn’t these guys (or their reps) be soaking up valuable news coverage and further inquiry? The media seems completely disinterested in who they are or even how they are doing. Instead, all we know is that as far as Easter miracles go, this ranks right up there.
That is an interesting point: we have seen little or nothing of the downed airmen.
Worth a glance. (Not quite Axios, but maybe at least similar standing).
https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-one-not-even-beijing-getting-through-strait-hormuz#:~:text=The%20closure%20has%20also%20left,trapped%20in%20the%20Persian%20Gulf.
Chiner going to get a bye getting it’s ships out of the Gulf?