The official macro docket’s pretty light in the US this week, but the next several days will nevertheless be eventful.

Most obviously, traders will remain on knife-edge for headlines out of the Mideast, where an already shaky ceasefire will be tested by the failure of US and Iranian negotiators to make a two-week truce permanent during talks in Pakistan.

Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday left the door open to another round of talks. Sort of. “We have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side,” he said. America “ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.”

Not to be morbid, but Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi are on borrowed time as far as Israel’s concerned. If Donald Trump will let them, the IDF’s probably inclined to assassinate Ghalibaf and Araghchi.

Over the weekend, Benjamin Netanyahu told the Israeli public the war with Iran isn’t over, to say nothing of the war in Lebanon, where the IDF continued to bomb on Sunday.

Back at the ranch, it’s IMF-World Bank week. Finance chiefs, central bankers, famous economists and sundry luminaries will gather in D.C. to debate the trajectory of the global economy. At last year’s meetings, the locus of concern was Trump’s tariff blitz. This year, it’s Trump’s war on Iran.

New global growth forecasts are likely to reflect downgrades to account for the conflict. In January, the IMF said global growth would likely be 3.3% this year.

“We were on the way [to] upgrading our growth projections,” Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg last week. “Given the impact of the war, we are going to downgrade them.” Her advice: “Buckle up.”

The marquee release in the US is PPI for March. The headline will reflect a sharp energy-related advance. Consensus expects a 1.1% month-to-month jump.

Note from that chart that wholesale inflation was already reheating. So, this is a “bad situation worse” sort of situation.

Thankfully, last week’s CPI release was benign if you don’t count the near record-large increase on the energy gauge. Economists will parse the PPI figures on Tuesday for clues as to whether sharply higher oil prices are already working their way into core PCE inflation which, you’ll recall, remains uncomfortably warm.

Also on deck in the US this week: Existing home sales, builder sentiment and big bank earnings.

Overseas, the NBS will release China’s Q1 GDP tally on Thursday, alongside activity data covering March.

The geopolitically-inclined will also watch Hungary, where Viktor Orban was ousted in a dramatic rebuke of so-called “illiberal democracy.”