“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement,” JD Vance said, after 21 hours of negotiations with Iranian diplomats in Pakistan. “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”
According to Vance, the main issue remains the nuclear program. The US wants “an affirmative commitment that [Iran] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” he said.
“The simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon, not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long-term?” Vance went on. “We haven’t seen that yet, we hope that we will.”
No long after, Air Force Two rolled down the tarmac with Vance on it, and that was that.
According to Iranian media, “various issues” remain unresolved, including Iran’s “nuclear rights.” One person close to the Iranian delegation told Fars the US “was looking for an excuse to leave the negotiating table.” State television accused Vance of “demanding too much.”
Some reports suggested Donald Trump wanted a “zero enrichment” promise from Iran and demanded the country surrender its uranium stockpile. The same reporting said the US wanted joint-management of the Strait of Hormuz on Trump’s terms and blamed Vance for not offering sufficient assurances that Israel will stop attacking Lebanon.
While the talks were unfolding, Benjamin Netanyahu said that as long as Iran possesses enriched uranium, Israel has unfinished business with the country.
There was no word on what might be next. Vance said only that the deal on the table in Islamabad — which he described as “a very simple proposal” — constitutes Trump’s “final and best offer.” “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” he added.
Shortly thereafter, Fars indicated Tehran doesn’t plan to schedule another round of talks. Tasnim said the Iranian team tried “to steer the American side toward reaching a common framework,” only to be rebuffed by Vance. The US delegation, Tasnim chided, allowed “greed” to “hinder their rationality and realism.”
Earlier in the day, Trump feigned indifference to Vance’s efforts in Pakistan. “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” he said. “We’ve won. We beat them militarily.”
When Vance delivered the somber news from Islamabad, Trump and Marco Rubio were at a UFC fight in Miami.
The fate of Bagher Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is now unclear. Two weeks ago, Trump reportedly asked Netanyahu to hold off on assassinating the two men so Washington would have someone to negotiate with.
Although some Iranians who still support the regime were against the talks in the first place, plenty of locals, particularly in the besieged capital, were ready for the war to end.
The New York Times quoted a text message from a Tehran resident after Vance said the talks ended with no deal. “May God help us,” it read.
Interesting to see if the US Navy continues to send ships in and out of the Gulf on an ostensible de-mining operation or “freedom of navigation” mission, and if Iran attacks them.
My cynical belief is that both Iranian leaders will be assassinated so that Trump can deal with the next in line. Also, the next in line will know they will be assassinated if they don’t come to a deal.
But what if no one steps up as (or has enough clout to be) next in line?
What if the next in line isn’t much of a talker then what? Do we have the stomach for actual war? The type that leads to tens of thousands of casualties? No shot.
It’s conceivable that Israel could assassinate enough people to force them to negotiate via actual members of the civilian government, where “actual” means people like Masoud Pezeshkian. But I don’t think that’s a viable plan. You can’t kill every hardliner. You really need to keep negotiating with someone who has real sway with the Guards and someone who knows how to toe the line between hardliner and diplomat. That’s Ghalibaf and Araghchi. You need to keep them alive. That’s your last, best chance at a Delcy outcome. Anything else is just a crapshoot.
And not for nothin’, but Ghalibaf and Araghchi should say as much to Trump if they haven’t already. Like, “Listen, if you kill us, we genuinely don’t know what happens next, so do your worst, but don’t say we didn’t warn you.”
ultimately if your opponent doesn’t believe in your will to fight a prolonged war then by default that’s the winning strategy…for your opponent.
I am very much concerned about the message we’re sending to our allies and foes alike. That we just don’t have it in us to get dirty and fight. And to be clear, this isn’t some sort of desire for war on my part. Far from it. But weakness will invite war. More of it.
And now the orange manchild announced a blockade. Stupid idea. He won’t be able to hold that either once WTI ramps over 120.
So another desperate bluff.
God help us all. Or as Trump would say, Allah help us all.
Since Iran can bear the cost of humanitarian suffering of the War as long as Trump cannot decide to destroy the entire civilian infrastructure as he threatened; Iran has time and money on its side. Every week that s&p 500 falls and oil&gas climbs, a better future deal will be forming in the background unless the US army puts many boots on the ground. Trump cannot risk the markets to make New YTD lows and oil YTD highs as investors and traders will be much more suspicious of things settling for the good the next time talks of a deal arise.
Also as long as Hormuz is reopened and cleared of mines; having a well enriched uranium stockpile is the only leverage for the IRGC. If they give it up incentive does the US and Israel to stop attacking again and killing their top politicians and generals?
The only alternative would ve paying a very very large lump sum War reparation upront for delivery of the uranium; which is something definitely noone can stomach.
The first question you have to ask yourself in a negotiation is “Is the other side negotiating in good faith? If their ‘word’ is part of the negotiation, can I trust them?”
Trump NEVER negotiates in good faith. Everyone knows he always changes the terms after the negotiation. That’s if he doesn’t bomb you in the middle of the negotiation.
Iran probably reasonably feels that if they give up the uranium, the one bit of leverage along with the SOH, then Tehran will end up looking like Gaza. What assurance do they have that Israel won’t raze their cities? Trump’s word? Would anyone reading this trust their life to a Trump promise?
I went to Home Depot and bought 3, 5 gallon jerry cans and filled them and my tank while the getting is good. I figured if there’s rationing at some point a few extra gallons can’t hurt. My brother laughed at me a week before the Covid crash. I earned a 150% in 2020 mostly from the dump. He went and bought some jerry cans, too.
Iran announced another change in payment terms for their toll. It’s now rial instead of Bitcoin/Tether/World Liberty crypto.
I wonder when the USS Bush and USS Boxer are arriving in the theater.
Amazing where things are now when the US ‘won’ this war on day six. Tells you everything you need to know about the strategic thinking capability of a ‘stable genius’. Somebody just ask Claude how we get out of this mess. Better yet, get five 10 year olds each from Iran, Israel and the US and see what they come up with.
The vast majority of the oil transiting the Strait goes east, not west. As of 2025, less than 10% went to Europe and USA, combined. China can’t be happy because they want to continue to be able to receive oil, as they have been, so it will be interesting to see how China responds. Now I read that Trump is threatening China with tariffs if they sell/provide arms to Iran.
If US blockades the Strait, this has to severely impact the money flow to IRGC. I have read that Iran now wants tolls paid in Iranian rials. I no idea if this is true, but I would not be surprised. They can’t last long without money to pay their employees.
Not so slow death?
This idea invite ps more state capitalism as Trump prohibits Exxon and Chevron from selling barrels to EU at a premium. To suggest onlynthe East will suffer ignores capital markets.
Where do we go now. You can’t allow IRAN to control that Strait they will use it as leverage whenever they want something.
Boots on the ground and austerity at home.
Will we go after Pakistan’s nukes next?
And/or North Korea? He could justify it by citing their very successful crypto hacking and theft. Afterall, crypto is an industry we need to nurture and protect!
But there is a low probability that we go after those two countries because they are ruled by friends of the president. I guess having a strongman in charge offers aa country some protection.
H you said there was going to be a lot of noise. Is it possible this is just noise? Both sides pretty good at made for tv movies.