“Since this war started, nothing makes sense.”
So said Margarita Robles, the Spanish defense minister on Monday. She was referring to the US military’s impending blockade of Iranian ports and the country’s coastline.
Following Donald Trump’s weekend escalations, the Pentagon clarified that the US Navy’s efforts will focus on “Iranian ports and coastal areas.” The US won’t “impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports.”
The blockade on Iran-controlled installations along the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman will be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing,” CENTCOM said.
So, this is designed specifically to choke off Iranian barrels, which the US not only allowed to exit the Gulf during a month of war, but in fact unsanctioned as part of an effort to limit the fallout from a supply shock which nevertheless pushed oil prices near their Ukraine invasion highs and drove a record increase in US gasoline prices.
Bagher Ghalibaf had a message for American motorists and vacationers. “Enjoy the current pump figures,” he said, captioning a Google maps image showing gas prices at stations around The White House. “With the so-called ‘blockade,’ soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
For their part, the Guards said “NO PORT in the region will be safe” if the US Navy goes ahead with the blockade. I’d note that every port in the region save Iran’s was already under, or even on, fire, so I’m not sure the IRGC’s saying anything new there.
In hindsight, the previous US strategy — letting Iran sell its oil unimpeded even as the Guards prevented anyone else from moving product through the Strait — made little sense. Now, Tehran’s financial lifeline’s severed.
Both Trump and Iranian officials appeared to leave the door open to further negotiations, even as Trump continued to feign indifference. “I don’t care if they come back or not,” he said. “If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”
He also told Fox that if there’s any truth to rumors that Beijing’s in the process of sending MANPADS to Tehran, China will face a 50% US tariff.
“I hear news reports about China giving [Iran] the shoulder missiles. I doubt they would do that, but if we catch them they get a 50% tariff,” he said.
Trump’s still scheduled to visit Beijing next month. China’s the largest buyer of Iranian crude. The new blockade, if enforced as advertised, would bar those sales.
America’s allies, and the Europeans specifically, don’t seem excited about the blockade. “In my view, it’s vital we get the Strait fully open,” Keir Starmer remarked.
In the same interview cited here at the outset, Robles called the blockade “another episode in the downward spiral the world has been dragged into.”
I did research China’s fuel reserves. With their own production and storage facilities, they appear to be in a position where they would not need imports for 2 to 5 years.
“At no point (not for one single, solitary second) over the next two weeks will either side be in complete compliance. It’s entirely possible that an entire ship blows up at some point. But that doesn’t mean the deal’s off. Even if Trump calls it off, it’s not off. This is just the tariffs, only with missiles instead of trade duties. We should all know how this works by now. It looked briefly late Monday and early Tuesday like Trump had lost it entirely, but now we’re back to “Trump 101,”
-Comment from ‘Day One Violations’
Is this still where we are? Blockade is just noise and we should expect a benign resolution, or are we on a different course than the tariffs?
They should have done a blockade from the beginning.
Rare earth minerals + soybeans = China = end of oil blockade.
I suppose the Russian sanctions still need to be lifted? (Eyes rolling out of my head)
Imagine the Cuban blockade scene from Thirteen Days, but instead of McNamara trying to avoid war, we have “Pistol” Pete Hegseth urging every naval vessel to use overwhelming violence.
What happens when a Chinese ship pays the toll, sailing to China. Are the US going to blockade a Chinese ship?
We’ll see. China has publicly warned the US against interfering with Chinese trade and cargoes. I guess there are levels – i) ship carrying cargo allegedly destined for China, ii) Chinese (owned or flagged) ship, iii) Chinese ship escorted by a PLA destroyer. I would bet the US willingness to interdict likely stops at ii), maybe even i), and obviously iii). After all, Russian oil and Chinese rice are being delivered to Cuba, with the US standing aside.