Donald Trump’s a peacemaker at heart.
No, he never won a Nobel Peace Prize, but he does have one. And he’s the only person ever to receive the FIFA Peace Prize.
It thus came as no surprise when, a little over an hour before a self-imposed deadline for destroying “a whole civilization” in what some feared might be one fell nuke, Trump’s better angels won the day.
“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran,” I agree to suspend the bombing and attack for a period of two weeks, Trump said.
Asim Munir, Pakistan’s real power broker, received an obligatory name drop. The detente’s contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, a concession Pakistan presumably secured. Trump called the reprieve “a double sided CEASEFIRE!”
The Islamabad off-ramp was in works all day Tuesday, when Trump faced across-the-board opprobrium abroad and bipartisan condemnation at home for menacing the Iranian people with genocide.
The US, Trump said, has “already met and exceeded all Military objectives” in Iran. That raises this obvious question: Why hasn’t he already declared victory and gone home? He also said negotiations for a “definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE” are “very far along,” a claim Iran hasn’t endorsed and likely won’t confirm.
According to Trump, Iran put forth a 10-point peace proposal. That’s not new, exactly. A five-point plan from Tehran was made public last week. What is new is Trump’s description of that proposal, which he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
As it turns out, the two sides have already resolved “almost all points of past contention.” That makes Trump’s armageddon threat sound even more irrational than genocide threats are by their very nature.
Put as a question: So it was all done but the formalities and you were going to destroy their civilization forever because of a few uncrossed “t”s and un-dotted “i”s?
Trump went on to say he expects Islamabad’s two-week timetable will be sufficient to get the deal “finalized.”
He then expressed gratitude for the opportunity to help facilitate a lasting peace agreement, said it’s been his “honor” to participate in the process and signed off as usual by thanking everyone for their “attention to this matter!”
What can you say? A lot. But to quote America’s 45th president in a parallel reality, “What difference, at this point, does it make?”
I can’t stop chuckling at this Rolling Stone headline: “‘A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight,’ Warns Nobel Peace Prize Hopeful”
?
Meanwhile J.D. is off trying to save Orban. If a multiverse exists, we’ve definitely branched off on a bad timeline.
As my euro colleagues almost joyfully like to point out , USA voted for this person to be their leader.
” We have met the enemy and he is us”
Can we just get everyone to tell him that he won so he can get back to curtains and China patterns for his ballroom?
“Coffee is for closer”
Don’t sell Sharif short. He’s extremely well connected, sharp, and experienced. The language he was using in some of those messages was a master class in old school diplomatic finesse.
Pakistan saved the day by giving both Trump and Iran the face saving off ramp (even as Israel tried to stop it with their bridge bombings today) both wanted but couldn’t give.
So back to $65 barrel by tax day? Just in time for earnings…
You missed the best part of his statement! I want to know who will be doing the consummating of this agreement!
He’s a peacemaker for wars he starts? Yeah I guess that’s pretty easy, I take my overwhelming force in and beat the hell out of you, then declare victory and claim only ever wanted peace. Obviously the parents who lost children, service members, and loved ones won’t see it that way; but this is America and we don’t care about those people.
It does feel like we are getting punked right now so I give you credit for calling it.
The “peacemaker” thing was a joke. Surely you noticed this entire article, and particularly the first three sentences, are dripping with sarcasm. And then the first comment I made quoting the Rolling Stone headline.
China recognizes their substantial loss of discounted crude oil for their refineries if US takes Kharg, or if the export terminal is damaged by Iranians defending it with drones and missiles. Therefore they have deployed their proxy Pakistan, to encourage Iran to allow more ships to transit thru the strait and de-escalate, for a 2 week reprieve of further attacks and subsequent extension of diplomacy and delays. No harm for US to acquiesce to a few more days of diplomatic kabuki and misdirection, to optimize our force posture and allow our assets into final position for the likely assault on Kharg that appears likely this weekend.
Your sarcasm is most of America’s truth though. My frustrated comments are rarely about what you are writing but more so about how blindly we the people walk with our cognitive dissonance.
Nothing that is palatable about Trump has ever been palatable before. I hate that I’m living inside a cult and that dear leader is able to shove the no consequences he feels in our face. I am truly disgusted by the time we are living in.
Sounds like we are about to find out what the word “open” means.
Really hard to know exactly what has been going on- as I’m starting to read reports that some vessels have been and/or might be planning to turn off their AIS transponders as they transit the SofH.
Iran’s exact quote is, “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
We’ll have to see tomorrow. This appears to have been in the works for weeks and involved Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt and Turkey as well as coordination with China. Iran appears to have initially been the bigger stumbling block (over demanding).
Pakistan has proposed starting peace talks in Islamabad on Friday. Luckily the Sharif boys and their “accountant” the FM are highly adept at greasing palms and laundering money. They just might be the fellas to bring our star crossed lovers together.
Looks like nobody is using the SOH yet – at least not with their AIS turned on. https://www.vesselfinder.com/
Sometimes, if not frequently, your articles are like puzzles. Small nuggets dropped in for us to tie out. Love the Hillary reference. Although the referenced hearing was not her finest moment.
I wonder how Israel will feel about this nascent ceasefire?
From what I can tell there’s still no real change in the attitude of Iran’s current leaders de jure towards Israel. Nor does it looks like the war did much for the popularity of the west with the Iranian populace. No sign of a popular uprising against the latest version of an Islamic Republic who has a platform statement around eradicating Israel. Seems to me that Iran has now demonstrated their ability to close Hormuz anytime they feel like it. And killing Revolutionary Guard leaders feels like pulling weeds by hand – kill one, two more pop up.
Can’t see how this off ramp does that much to reduce Iran as an existential threat to Israel. I wonder does Netanyahu feels about this?
Maybe he’ll become an existentialist. After all, anxiety absurdity and meaninglessness are exactly what an existentialist needs.
The key question is if Iran will continue to toll the SoH during this two weeks. Which is quite unclear. Some claims of “yes”, no clear confirmation of “no”.
As far as oil goes, the loaded tankers trapped in the Gulf will leave as fast as they can, remains to be seen if new tankers are willing to enter and risk getting trapped. Production has been shut-in, it takes weeks for wells to be inspected and restarted. Potentially all you get is the floating barrels. I’m thinking crude storage and terminals are pretty intact, but damaged refineries and petrochemical won’t be repaired in weeks.
Basically, a two week cease fire with a fully open, toll-free SoH should slightly ease the global oil situation, but only that. If it is a open-to-all but tolled SoH, then I don’t think Saudi will use it, maybe not UAE, so the benefit to oil supply will be that much more slight.
The “joint venture” comment with Strait of Hormuz tolls is just pure Trump. Turn anything into a “deal”.
Yeah, and that’s another “I told you so” moment for me. This is all laughably predictable.