Oil pushed higher on Monday as markets assessed the situation in Yemen, where new reporting suggests the Houthis’ lightning offensive to capture strategic coastal real estate near the Bab al-Mandab Strait was aided by inside information.

The group, which controls mobile networks around the capital, Sanaa, used the cell phones of captured rivals to “listen in on calls between their opponents’ commanders, giving them insight into their plans,” according to The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal‘s sources also said the Houthis used the phones to “speak directly to rival fighters on the ground, urging them to surrender.” Brent was back near $110 to start the week on the prospect of de facto Iranian control over both Mideast maritime energy chokepoints.

As the figure shows, Brent’s gunning for a third consecutive weekly advance and a fifth in six.

Late last week, the Saudis closed the East-West pipeline responsible for moving crude across the Kingdom to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, which Riyadh uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That line came under attack recently by drones flying from Iraq, where PMF militia, including the remnants of Kata’ib Hezbollah, still project on behalf of the IRGC, even as the Quds don’t exert the same level of operational control as they once did.

Details regarding the scope of damage to the Saudi line remain sparse, but sources who spoke to Reuters said Riyadh “will run out of oil stocks for exports” if it doesn’t restart the pipeline “within days.” The same sources suggested repairs could take weeks, although the conduit could be partially operational sooner. Up to 4% of global supply’s at risk.

Between the Houthis’ advance in Yemen and the Iraqi militias’ successful attacks on the Saudi pipeline, the Quds are serving notice that Qassem Soleimani’s “Axis of Resistance” isn’t completely defunct after all, even as Hezbollah “proper” (i.e., Lebanese Hezbollah) and Hamas will never be what they were prior to the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel.

I’d modestly (and gently) suggest it’s past time to offer the Houthis far more than they’ve been offered previously in peace deals aimed at establishing a unity government in Yemen. Critics would argue they’ve turned down “good” offers before, but given that they control the capital, the Red Sea coast and, now, the Bab al-Mandab, the “rebel” label’s an anachronistic misnomer.

Ironically, the best way to diminish Iranian leverage in Yemen might be to give the Houthis their “due,” because as I’ve emphasized repeatedly, they aren’t just puppets. They do have aspirations to govern in their own interests separate and distinct from Tehran’s, and they’re not really “terrorists” on most conventional definitions of the term.

The Journal article mentioned above notes that although the US provided the Saudis with targeting and logistical assistance for recent operations in support of anti-Houthi forces in Yemen, Donald Trump refused to participate directly in military operations.

Over the weekend, Trump said the group appealed to the US directly, telling him “the situation would be worked out and everything would be fine,” as the Journal put it.