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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Resignation

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

The friend   I checked into the Perry Lane in downtown Savannah on December 5

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9 Comments on Resignation

For Gold, Silver: Black Friday

January 30, 2026February 2, 2026

Well, you can’t say they weren’t due for a pullback. By “they” I mean gold

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13 Comments on For Gold, Silver: Black Friday

Two Wild Charts Show Scope Of Gold Frenzy

January 30, 2026February 1, 2026

Gold’s “getting bubbly.” And, along with silver, it’s “nutty overbought.” The quotes are from BofA’s

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2 Comments on Two Wild Charts Show Scope Of Gold Frenzy

Kevin Warsh Wins World’s Worst Job

January 30, 2026February 1, 2026

When Kevin Warsh was last in the running for the big seat at the Fed,

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7 Comments on Kevin Warsh Wins World’s Worst Job

Don’t Look Now, But Wholesale Inflation’s Heating Up In America

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

Don’t look now (because no one else will on a day when flashier headlines predominated),

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Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

“Way” back in October, Tim Cook said iPhone sales and also total revenue at Apple

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4 Comments on Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

Riding The Bubbles

January 29, 2026January 31, 2026

There’s some nascent unwind risk emanating from the CTA universe. I realize that’s a little

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2 Comments on Riding The Bubbles

Trump’s Right About US Borrowing Costs. But He Misses The Irony

January 29, 2026February 1, 2026

You’ve heard it before, in some cases from me: There’s something inherently absurd about the

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7 Comments on Trump’s Right About US Borrowing Costs. But He Misses The Irony

Trump Again Considers Striking Iran After US Missile Demands Refused

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

It’s been 38 years since Donald Trump published “The Art of the Deal,” a collaborative

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6 Comments on Trump Again Considers Striking Iran After US Missile Demands Refused

Meta, Microsoft Beat As AI Costs Scrutinized

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

Meta and Microsoft both beat estimates in results released after the bell on Wall Street

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4 Comments on Meta, Microsoft Beat As AI Costs Scrutinized

Jerome Powell’s Got Nothing For You

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

Jerome Powell has nothing for you. On anything. Or at least not on anything you

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7 Comments on Jerome Powell’s Got Nothing For You

Waller Joins Miran In Dovish Dissent As Fed Holds Rates

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as widely expected. Stephen Miran naturally dissented, but

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‘With Speed And Violence’: Iran Regime Change Back In Play

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

It’s hard not to laugh, dire though these times of ours most assuredly are. I’m

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11 Comments on ‘With Speed And Violence’: Iran Regime Change Back In Play

The Poli-Sci Catalyst Behind Gold’s Epic Rally, Dollar’s Deepening Disaster

January 28, 2026January 28, 2026

The paradox of power for America vis-à-vis the dollar-based financial architecture which grew out of,

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8 Comments on The Poli-Sci Catalyst Behind Gold’s Epic Rally, Dollar’s Deepening Disaster

As Mag7 Results Begin, This Is The Most Important Question…

January 27, 2026

As Mag7 results roll in, the most important question for the world’s most important companies

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Leave a Comment on As Mag7 Results Begin, This Is The Most Important Question…

US Population Growth Plunges On ‘Historic’ Immigration Decline

January 27, 2026January 28, 2026

It’s working. The Trump administration’s sweeping effort to curb immigration, I mean. New estimates from

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10 Comments on US Population Growth Plunges On ‘Historic’ Immigration Decline

American Mood ‘Collapses’

January 27, 2026January 28, 2026

“Collapsed.” That’s the word the Conference Board used on Tuesday to describe the month-to-month change

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9 Comments on American Mood ‘Collapses’

Real US Home Values Keep Shrinking. Deal Cancellations Soar

January 27, 2026January 28, 2026

Home prices are still rising in America, but real housing wealth contracted a sixth month

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5 Comments on Real US Home Values Keep Shrinking. Deal Cancellations Soar

Dollar Bears Everywhere!

January 27, 2026January 28, 2026

I spent a lot of time early this week lamenting the rampant uncertainty engendered by

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1 Comment on Dollar Bears Everywhere!

Insurrection Act Rumors, Civil War Fears Spread Amid Minneapolis Melee

January 26, 2026January 27, 2026

The images plastered across the front page of every mainstream media outlet in America on

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20 Comments on Insurrection Act Rumors, Civil War Fears Spread Amid Minneapolis Melee

What Immigration Crackdowns And De-Dollarization Have In Common

January 26, 2026January 27, 2026

Rule of law. It matters. In fact, it’s the only thing that matters in the

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6 Comments on What Immigration Crackdowns And De-Dollarization Have In Common

Gold Soars Above $5,000 As Chaos Rally Goes Parabolic

January 26, 2026January 27, 2026

I love the smell of flaming fiat in the morning. On Monday, gold added to

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4 Comments on Gold Soars Above $5,000 As Chaos Rally Goes Parabolic

What To Expect From 2026’s First FOMC Meeting

January 25, 2026January 26, 2026

Jerome Powell, spendthrift renovator, will defy Donald Trump’s calls for more rate cuts at this

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1 Comment on What To Expect From 2026’s First FOMC Meeting

Is Another US Government Shutdown Coming?

January 25, 2026January 27, 2026

Who’s ready for another US government shutdown? Or martial law in America? Or both? Senate

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14 Comments on Is Another US Government Shutdown Coming?

Weekly: The Existential Threat To US Treasurys

January 24, 2026January 26, 2026

I’m pretty sanguine about the outlook for risk assets but… BUT. At the end of

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11 Comments on Weekly: The Existential Threat To US Treasurys

Remember: ‘The Markets Have No Heart’

January 23, 2026January 26, 2026

I’ve said it a few dozen times before and I’m sure I’ll say it at

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4 Comments on Remember: ‘The Markets Have No Heart’

White House Gets Rare Reprieve From Marquee Macro Mood Poll

January 23, 2026January 25, 2026

The Trump administration caught a rare break on the domestic economic sentiment front Friday, when

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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