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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Bond Vigilantes Beat Down The Door In Japan

January 23, 2026January 25, 2026

I wouldn’t say this was an “all’s well that ends well” week for the Japanese

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3 Comments on Bond Vigilantes Beat Down The Door In Japan

The Stocks Are Fine. The ‘Fake’ Polls, Not So Much

January 23, 2026January 24, 2026

If you’re a politician and your poll numbers aren’t great, there are a couple of

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1 Comment on The Stocks Are Fine. The ‘Fake’ Polls, Not So Much

Missiles, Mining And Military Bases: Greenland Deal Comes Into View

January 22, 2026January 23, 2026

By Thursday afternoon in the US, which is to say around 24 hours after Donald

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7 Comments on Missiles, Mining And Military Bases: Greenland Deal Comes Into View

Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Still Tame (Read The Fine Print)

January 22, 2026January 23, 2026

“Refer to ‘Technical Notes’ for information on how the BEA imputed missing BLS prices.” That

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3 Comments on Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Still Tame (Read The Fine Print)

Since 1969: US Jobless Claims Average Nears Milestone

January 22, 2026January 23, 2026

Another week, another rock-bottom — which is to say completely benign — read on US

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4 Comments on Since 1969: US Jobless Claims Average Nears Milestone

The ‘Infinite, Forever Deal’ For Greenland

January 22, 2026January 23, 2026

As it turns out — and I doubt this’ll surprise anybody — what Donald Trump

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9 Comments on The ‘Infinite, Forever Deal’ For Greenland

Greenland, Lisa Cook Saved As Rutte, SCOTUS Come Through

January 21, 2026January 22, 2026

Donald Trump’s not going to invade Greenland nor, apparently, is the Supreme Court prepared to

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14 Comments on Greenland, Lisa Cook Saved As Rutte, SCOTUS Come Through

Trump Says US Won’t Invade Greenland

January 21, 2026January 22, 2026

Donald Trump’s speech in Davos on Wednesday was very difficult to entertain and I wouldn’t

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7 Comments on Trump Says US Won’t Invade Greenland

Seller-Buyer Imbalance Goes Vertical As Pending Home Sales Plunge

January 21, 2026January 22, 2026

A mid-week update on the marquee gauge of contract activity across America’s still-beset resale housing

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Leave a Comment on Seller-Buyer Imbalance Goes Vertical As Pending Home Sales Plunge

Unhedged Pros Perilously Exposed To Stock Drawdown

January 21, 2026January 22, 2026

If nothing can go wrong, I suppose you don’t need hedges. I’m reminded of an

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Leave a Comment on Unhedged Pros Perilously Exposed To Stock Drawdown

Uber-Bullish Fund Managers Expect A ‘Boom’

January 21, 2026January 21, 2026

Professional money managers have virtually never been more bullish. Because what on Earth could go

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Leave a Comment on Uber-Bullish Fund Managers Expect A ‘Boom’

Denmark De-Dollarizes

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

“We are taking no action based on rhetoric alone.” So said Anders Schelde, CIO of

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5 Comments on Denmark De-Dollarizes

‘Take A Deep Breath,’ Bessent Says, As Dollar Dives

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

If you’re a developed nation, you don’t want to see your currency sell off at

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3 Comments on ‘Take A Deep Breath,’ Bessent Says, As Dollar Dives

Trump Goes All-In On Greenland As Macron Decries ‘Blood Politics’

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

Tariff Man’s losing the plot a little bit. Or maybe, as the most powerful person

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14 Comments on Trump Goes All-In On Greenland As Macron Decries ‘Blood Politics’

Japanese Bond Market Implodes On Takaichi Power Play

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

There’s trouble in bond land and the epicenter’s Tokyo. Three months into her tenure, Japanese

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4 Comments on Japanese Bond Market Implodes On Takaichi Power Play

Nobel Giftee Trump ‘No Longer Obliged To Think Purely Of Peace’

January 19, 2026January 20, 2026

Donald Trump’s bid to acquire (or seize or steal or whatever verb you prefer) Greenland

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13 Comments on Nobel Giftee Trump ‘No Longer Obliged To Think Purely Of Peace’

China Just Had A Very Tough Year Economically

January 19, 2026January 20, 2026

Late last month, Xi Jinping described 2025 as an “extraordinary” year for China economically. It

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Leave a Comment on China Just Had A Very Tough Year Economically

The Great Irony Of China’s Record-Low Birth Rate

January 19, 2026January 20, 2026

Say what you will, but at least they escaped the Malthusian trap. Behind China’s much-ballyhooed

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13 Comments on The Great Irony Of China’s Record-Low Birth Rate

Stocks, Credit Ignore A World Ablaze

January 18, 2026January 19, 2026

It’s a holiday week in the US and there isn’t a lot on the compressed

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8 Comments on Stocks, Credit Ignore A World Ablaze

Transatlantic Union Nears Collapse As Trump Demands Greenland

January 18, 2026January 20, 2026

Part of me’s surprised Donald Trump didn’t threaten to rain “fire and fury” on Copenhagen

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13 Comments on Transatlantic Union Nears Collapse As Trump Demands Greenland

Weekly: Fiat Fatigue And A World On Fire (Why Gold Keeps Rising)

January 17, 2026January 20, 2026

The never-ending rally in gold’s no different from any other phenomenon in being unamenable to

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13 Comments on Weekly: Fiat Fatigue And A World On Fire (Why Gold Keeps Rising)

Did Trump Just Announce The Next Fed Chair?

January 16, 2026January 19, 2026

Donald Trump may spare us the humiliation of Fed Chair Kevin Hassett. As recently as

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4 Comments on Did Trump Just Announce The Next Fed Chair?

Builder Mood Worsens As Down Payment Burden Sidelines Home Buyers

January 16, 2026January 18, 2026

Forlorn US homebuilders weren’t feeling any better about their plight as 2026 dawned. The last

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7 Comments on Builder Mood Worsens As Down Payment Burden Sidelines Home Buyers

Trump Will Force Big-Tech To Subsidize Expensive Power Bills

January 16, 2026January 18, 2026

By every outward appearance, Donald Trump’s very concerned about his inflation polling headed into the

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9 Comments on Trump Will Force Big-Tech To Subsidize Expensive Power Bills

How Scary Is The Ramp-Up In Tech Sector Debt?

January 15, 2026January 17, 2026

Investors harbor a veritable obsession with hyper-scaler capex and for good reason. As discussed here

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4 Comments on How Scary Is The Ramp-Up In Tech Sector Debt?

AI Capex Spree Points To Lower Returns On Capital

January 15, 2026January 16, 2026

Get ready for lower returns on capital from the largest, most important companies on the

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4 Comments on AI Capex Spree Points To Lower Returns On Capital

Jobless Claims Don’t Want To Hear Your Recession Narrative

January 15, 2026January 15, 2026

Jobless claims: They’re low in the US. And that’s an understatement. With the caveat that

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3 Comments on Jobless Claims Don’t Want To Hear Your Recession Narrative

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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