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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Goldman’s Equities Traders, Morgan’s Debt Bankers Make It Rain

January 15, 2026January 16, 2026

Goldman’s equities traders did some trading last quarter. Notwithstanding a slight miss to consensus when

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2 Comments on Goldman’s Equities Traders, Morgan’s Debt Bankers Make It Rain

A Word On Donald Trump’s Credit Card Crusade

January 15, 2026January 16, 2026

The handwringing over Donald Trump’s credit card interest rate cap looks overdone and comically so.

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15 Comments on A Word On Donald Trump’s Credit Card Crusade

US Housing Perks Up As Industry Debates Trump’s GSE Gambit

January 14, 2026

A “tough” year for the resale US housing market ended on a high note, data

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For The Islamic Republic, It’s All Over But The Crying

January 14, 2026January 15, 2026

Iran would hate to have to pretend to shoot at US troops again, but they

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11 Comments on For The Islamic Republic, It’s All Over But The Crying

US Retail Sales Solid, Wholesale Prices Benign

January 14, 2026January 15, 2026

The Census Bureau finally got around to tallying US retail sales for November which is,

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Bank Of America’s Fine, In Case You Were Wondering

January 14, 2026January 15, 2026

Brian Moynihan, like Jamie Dimon, is bullish on the US economy. He said as much

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China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Papers Over Deflation Crisis

January 14, 2026January 15, 2026

The final numbers are in. When it was all said and done for 2025, China’s

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1 Comment on China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Papers Over Deflation Crisis

McElligott Explains Why Stocks Don’t Care About Powell Drama

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

If you’re old enough to remember 2018, the year Jerome Powell took the reins at

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6 Comments on McElligott Explains Why Stocks Don’t Care About Powell Drama

Greenland’s Future May Be ‘Sovereignty Twilight’

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

Early this week, a piece appeared in Foreign Affairs called “How Greenland Falls.” It’s by

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3 Comments on Greenland’s Future May Be ‘Sovereignty Twilight’

US Employers Were Hiring As The Calendar Flipped

January 13, 2026January 13, 2026

Another week, another decent read on a high-frequency proxy for private payroll growth in the

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BLS Hands Trump Decent Inflation Report

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

Well whaddya know, core inflation in the US was cooler than expected last month. Fancy

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9 Comments on BLS Hands Trump Decent Inflation Report

Dimon Upbeat On US Economy As JPMorgan Tops Estimates

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

JPMorgan kicked off big bank earnings in the US on Tuesday with a set of

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1 Comment on Dimon Upbeat On US Economy As JPMorgan Tops Estimates

Trump Has World On Tenterhooks Again As Iran Strike Rumors Swirl

January 12, 2026January 13, 2026

On the off chance anyone’s interested in JD Vance’s opinion, America’s vice president isn’t convinced

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2 Comments on Trump Has World On Tenterhooks Again As Iran Strike Rumors Swirl

First They Came For Jay…

January 12, 2026January 13, 2026

As any long-time reader can attest, I spent years (literally) warning on the clear and

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14 Comments on First They Came For Jay…

‘Mark Z’ Taps Trump-Endorsed ‘Goldman Diplomat’ To Head AI Buildout

January 12, 2026January 13, 2026

Dina Powell McCormick’s “uniquely suited to help Meta manage [its] next phase of growth.” She’s

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Potential Powell Indictment Casts Pall Over Inflation Data

January 12, 2026January 12, 2026

To the extent the Trump administration’s concerned about restoring the market’s faith in the reliability

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6 Comments on Potential Powell Indictment Casts Pall Over Inflation Data

Facing Criminal Indictment, Powell Finally Stands Up To Trump

January 11, 2026January 13, 2026

Jerome Powell’s finally had enough of Donald Trump. In an extraordinary statement accompanied by an

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12 Comments on Facing Criminal Indictment, Powell Finally Stands Up To Trump

Is Another US Military Strike On Iran Imminent?

January 11, 2026January 12, 2026

The death toll in Iran’s rising. And Donald Trump’s patience, which is thin on stoic

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8 Comments on Is Another US Military Strike On Iran Imminent?

The Virtues And Risks Of Trump’s Foreign Policy

January 11, 2026January 12, 2026

In some perverse sense, Donald Trump may deserve credit for jettisoning post-World War II decorum

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4 Comments on The Virtues And Risks Of Trump’s Foreign Policy

Weekly: The Diosdado Cabello Question

January 10, 2026January 12, 2026

Late Friday, Delcy Rodriguez, in her capacity as interim president of Venezuela, said her country’s in

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12 Comments on Weekly: The Diosdado Cabello Question

American Workers Screwed Like Never Before, Key Metric Shouts

January 9, 2026January 11, 2026

Remember when labor, as an economic actor with clout, was back? No? Me neither, but

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4 Comments on American Workers Screwed Like Never Before, Key Metric Shouts

‘Vibecession’ Lives On As Poor Sentiment Belies Red-Hot GDP Tracker

January 9, 2026January 11, 2026

“Kitchen table issues.” That’s what Americans are concerned about, not so much which Chavistas are

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2 Comments on ‘Vibecession’ Lives On As Poor Sentiment Belies Red-Hot GDP Tracker

Trump Resorts To Gimmicks To Revive Moribund US Housing

January 9, 2026January 11, 2026

It’s a good thing Donald Trump’s going to rescue the US housing market by “asking”

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7 Comments on Trump Resorts To Gimmicks To Revive Moribund US Housing

US Hiring Tepid After Sharp 2025 Slowdown

January 9, 2026January 10, 2026

The first “clean” (that probably needs more scare quotes) read on the US labor market

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In Iran, A Moment

January 9, 2026January 9, 2026

The chickens are restless in Iran. Video footage verified and geolocated by multiple mainstream international

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1 Comment on In Iran, A Moment

Donald Trump, Peace Prize Hopeful, Wants A ‘Dream Army’

January 8, 2026January 9, 2026

If the Department of Defense is the Department of War now, does that mean defense

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11 Comments on Donald Trump, Peace Prize Hopeful, Wants A ‘Dream Army’

Potential Vs Kinetic Energy: Goldman Sees 2026 Stock Rally Despite Risks

January 8, 2026January 9, 2026

Did I mention that Goldman expects meaningful gains for US equities in 2026? Maybe. Probably.

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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