“I guess, on [a] scale from zero to 10, I would say the meeting was at a 12,” Donald Trump said Friday. Eat your heart out Nigel Tufnel.
Trump was, of course, describing his first in-person meeting with Xi Jinping since returning to office. I doubt Xi would use the same glowing language to describe the chat, which lasted around an hour and a half. They met, somewhat inauspiciously, at a military base in South Korea.
Mere minutes before shaking Xi’s hand, Trump said on social media the Pentagon (the rechristened Department of War) will restart nuclear weapons tests “because of other countries testing programs.” It wasn’t clear who he was referring to nor what, exactly, he meant.
The US isn’t a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which ostensibly means Trump could actually detonate nuclear bombs. But he didn’t specify whether he intends to do so. Neither Russia nor China has detonated a weapon in decades.
It’s possible Trump was just posturing for Vladimir Putin, who delights in boasting, KCNA-style, about Russia’s nuclear-capable missile arsenal. Still, the timing of the announcement wasn’t an accident. As multiple media outlets noted, Trump appears to have posted about the nuclear tests while on a helicopter en route to meet Xi.
China’s in the process of achieving nuclear weapons parity with the US and Russia. It’ll be there by 2035 on most estimates. Xi’s not especially amenable to binding China’s hands before then. Even if Trump were triggered (no pun intended) Thursday by something Putin said, he surely knew the announcement would back-foot Xi, and I gotta say (with sincere apologies, because this is uncouth), I’ve heard worse strategies.
And so, under the long shadow of nuclear armageddon, the US and China agreed Thursday to extend and pretend on trade. According to the Chinese Commerce Ministry, Trump and Xi will stick with the tenuous truce that’s largely held since May and Beijing will for now postpone implementation of the sweeping rare earth restrictions which rankled Trump and rattled markets earlier this month.
The White House will cancel or otherwise rescind a bevy of punitive measures on Chinese companies and Trump will cut in half the tariffs he applied in connection with what his administration insists is China’s instrumental role in supplying fentanyl precursor.
Further, Beijing will restart purchases of US farm products, including soybeans (just ahead of the meeting, China booked its first known soybean purchases of the season, ending a boycott which infuriated Trump) and Xi said he’s ready to “resolve” any outstanding issues related to TikTok. Trump exhorted American farmers to “immediately go out and buy more land and larger tractors.” (Dear farmers: Don’t do that.)
Ultimately, it isn’t clear what was actually accomplished on Thursday other than an agreement not to proceed with this month’s escalations. That’s “not nothin’,” as they say, and it’s welcome news that Trump and Xi decided to break what the latter described as a “vicious cycle of mutual retaliation.”
But from what I can tell, the overall US tariff rate on China will still be near 50%. That’s not an embargo, but I don’t think it’s sustainable when you’re talking about trade flows of this magnitude between the world’s two largest economies.
Levies near 50% are punitive almost by nature, and they’re certainly (avowedly) disciplinary in this context. Setting aside his pretensions to friendship with Xi, Trump’s rhetoric around trade with China is openly hostile. Hostile rhetoric and a 50% (or damn near) average tariff rate isn’t conducive to an amicable economic relationship.
Markets will probably take it, where that means be satisfied that the truce was extended, even while knowing full well that new escalations (or at least new threats) are just a matter of time.
Assuming there’s not a nuclear war between now and spring, Trump will visit China in April and Xi may come to the US at some point after that. “You know, just the whole relationship is very, very important,” Trump went on, regaling reporters aboard Air Force One. “I think [the meeting] was very good.”
Do you think Xi encouraged Trump to pursue his dream of regime change in Caracas while they were together?
“immediately go out and buy more land and larger tractors”, What an idiot.
Like they’re just sitting on millions of dollars in cash in boxes waiting on the right moment to cart it down to the tractor dealership. “I want eight new tractors and I want them immediately. Also, who owns this land? I want that too.”
Love that movie! I haven’t seen the sequel yet, but doing so is “on my list”.
Who owns this land? Good question- among largest owners, who might be use the farmland for soy beans- and not for ranching, nuts, citrus, grapes, etc. of our over 880 million acres of farmland, are Bill Gates and the Mormon Church! My cousin is a farmer in Illinois- he does grow soybeans, but his total acreage doesn’t even add up to a rounding error. Furthermore, much of his wealth has come from trading commodity options related to whatever he is growing. His John Deere tractor is self driving, so he can trade options simultaneously.
This is a good reminder of just how many fields (Har!) you need to be an expert in to be a farmer.
1) Botany. You have to be a master of horticulture. From the chemicals, the genetics of your seeds, pests, soil composition, micro-nutrients, you name it.
2) Meteorology & Climatology. Not just rain, but also temperature.
3) Chemistry. How do you know if you’ve got enough potassium in your soil? Do you know how to adjust it?
4) Machinist & Mechanic. Hiring a repairman is expensive. So much of the repair work (and all of the basic maintenance) needs to be done in-house.
5) Commodity trading & Finance. If you don’t understand futures & actively manage your exposure, you aren’t going to make it. That’s to say nothing of real estate finance, equipment finance, margin exposure, loans, insurance, you name it.
6) Business & Administration. You almost certainly have employees. You have to make payroll. Hire seasonal labor. Balance the books. Move product to distribution points. Manage relationships with buyers, distributors, processing, etc. You have enough spare time left over for all that, right?
7) Legal. I mean, you’re going to need to hire a lawyer, but you need to understand what they’re telling you & whether they’re doing their job.
And all that just to get blown up at the end of the season because the president decided to get in a pissing match with your biggest customer.
Optional: 7) Zoology & Veterinary science. Oh, you want to be a rancher too?
My favorite farmer is Jeremy Clarkson. So funny!
I thought I had lost any capacity to be surprised by anything the Big Man on Campus said. Was I wrong. My anxiety level skyrocketed upon reading about his nuclear proclamation. Him and Pete Hegseth will be the death of us.
So far T2 is running at at at least one serious mistake per day. Messing with the bomb while his minion keeps the House closed would be existential and Donald of the Very Tiny Hands will only get to make that kind of mistake once — no mulligan.
On watching the film ‘Idiocracy’ years ago I considered it as a cautionary tale. The current administration is Idiocracy’s Idiocracy.
A lot of attention has been focused on the (absurd) 90,000 sq ft ballroom being constructed on the former site of the East Wing. From the beginning my question has been – what’s underneath it? Maybe a bunker?
Maybe a brothel.
The Hill has a good summary of the East Wing’s history.
And yes, there’s been a bunker there since WWII, it was not a secret.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5570380-white-house-east-wing-razed-theater-bunker-first-lady-offices/
Time to watch “House of Dynamite” movie.
I do consider North Korea as part of China, from a nuclear perspective.
Maybe I’m being too “judgie” … So what exactly has been accomplished by the trade war with China?
? – public and private leaders lavish false praise and gifts to curry favor
? – Western countries form trade pacts without US involvement
? – US businesses (ex-mag10 ai tribe) are struggling
? – all time high for the number of people who make less than $50k yr and deeply care about the wellbeing of billionaires
Bessent makes a sort-of-deal with China, Trump feel emboldened, starts imposing new tariffs/fees on China (shipping, TikTok) and promising others (AI, semis), China brings out the soybean boycott and rare earth embargo, Trump bluffs with 100% tariffs then runs to a hasty meeting with Xi, devoid of pomp and gifts, where he is force-fed tacos.
US cuts tariffs on China by 10 ppt and, I suspect, backs off or will back off on shipping, AI, semis, etc. In return China buys some US soybean cargos and returns REE controls to prior levels.
I expect China to briefly loosen REE controls to choke out fledgling Western REE startups, then tighten them again, when Trump next gives them a pretext. And he will. He can’t help himself and plenty of people in the Administration want a full-out trade war anyway.
Indeed, the US has deferred, for a year, the port fees on Chinese built cargo ships that were a central part of its plan to revive US shipbuilding. Pretty obvious who is wearing the pants.
Wow, I did not know Trump’s buddy was as tall as he is…..
Would love to see a view of the shoes Xi is wearing. I don’t believe he is 6′ so am guessing he is getting a lift.
When I first heard about Russia’s new “nuclear torpedo,” I was immediately reminded of the ending of Stanley Kubrick’s classic film, “Dr. Strangelove”: “Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!” I sincerely thought we had learned this lesson already: