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33 Out Of 36
The first of this week's key US macro updates suggested factory activity across the world's largest
“Consensus was looking for 49.5.”
I’ve often wondered how the forecasts of ISM readings or U/P Claims are conjured up. The old straight ruler method or?
Yeah, and not to be abrasive about it, but imagine someone like me — where that means someone who writes things like that “Eternity” Monthly — sitting here looking at something as mind-bogglingly trivial as a PMI and as hopelessly asinine as a median projection for a metric which purports to summarize a set of survey anecdotes. The juxtaposition between the daily stream of content here and the Monthlies is becoming amusingly vast.
Yep. And concisely expressed.
It’s a burden partly of your own making.
Yeah, it is. It’s just that frankly, I ran up against the limits of what there is to know about “macro-markets” about two years ago. With apologies to everybody for whom this stuff’s still interesting, it’s an inherently limited field of inquiry. There just isn’t that much there. Certainly not compared to, say, cosmology and philosophy or even something like sociology. Don’t worry: I’ll continue to document every macro-market twist and turn as long as I draw breath, but I implore everyone: Broaden your horizons. Because when it comes to expanding your mind, this (macro-market “stuff”) ain’t it.
Because I make the majority of my retirement income from the markets, I value your insight as well as many of the regular commentors here that might help me keep from getting too off base in my personal market decisions, but that stuff has gotten to be pretty much the same old, same old. I do appreciate your other writing and that is what I look forward to these days especially because I tend to be a pessimist that is rarely disappointed in life but also sometimes pleasantly surprised by the way things turn out.
Thank you. Like most of your diligent readers I appreciate your reporting on those oh-so-important macro nuggets. At the risk of insulting you, I’ll say that they are much better than AI!!
“but I implore everyone: Broaden your horizons. Because when it comes to expanding your mind, this (macro-market “stuff”) ain’t it.”
Where’s the damn clapping emoji when I need it?
The bulk of the tariffs are basically a government revenue source, to shift tax burden to consumer and companies, from . . . you can guess. As such, they will be difficult to reverse. A minority of the tariffs are a simplistic and clumsy attempt at industrial policy, which is mostly failing since businesses need predictability to make long-term decisions.
Weren’t the majority of the tariffs negotiated by Trump himself? Are the negotiations a matter of public record? Is there a possibility that one of the results of all these deals was a quid pro quo that personally benefited the Trump family? If so, then it really shouldn’t matter to Trump if the tariffs are reversed or not, or how hard that process would be.
Maybe when he sees this he will double the tariffs, still too low !