Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
War With Venezuela Has Nothing To Do With Cocaine
Donald Trump's probably going to bomb the Venezuelan mainland. By the time you read this, he might'v
I’ve always assumed this Venezuelan venture is about the oil, not the drugs.
Trump’s style of authoritarianism is to take the first step and, if no one yells too much, then take the second. So just start taking out a few boats. There’s not too much pushback because how is anyone going to pushback. All they can do is make a fuss in the media, but other than that there really isn’t much leverage anywhere (amazing how much taking of life the US is free to do outside its borders). Phase 2 might be a CIA targeted assasination by smart bomb. It might actually work if Trump’s buddy Bibi lends a hand. Voila, regime change and no one is going to complain even, judging by Gaza standards, if there is collateral damage. And Trump gets a secondary boost because he’s able to push Epstein further towards ancient history. As much as I dislike these people, you have to admit that the Project 2025 rollout is going well. Librarians thinking ahead should save some room next to Mein Kampf.
I will admit to feeling conflicted about this. Having been born in Venezuela and still maintaining a close connection with people there (family and folks that work for me), I can attest to the following: the triumvirate of power in Caracas, composed by Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and Padrino Lopez are definitely involved and facilitating drug traffic but they are not the Western Hemisphere Al Qeada as you point out, far from it. Also, most cocaine transiting through Venezuela is indeed destined for Europe and mostly intended for distribution by the Ndragheta in Calabria and from there to the rest of the old continent. That said, I know from folks connected to the regime that Maduro has been offered an off ramp more than once and declined, same for Diosdado, who many see as the actual power behind Maduro. They decided to call Trump’s bluff, I don’t blame them because I also thought it was a bluff. Now it looks like actual military action will happen.
I can also attest to the fact that most people in Venezuela will welcome a strike against the regime and someone hurting Maduro, at least so long as they do not fall victims to any military action. I feel pretty confident predicting that if (when) Maduro falls there will be major celebrations in Caracas, Maracaibo, Valencia and every major city in the country, what comes after will likely not be pretty, but things in Venezuela are essentially unsustainable already, the regime has stayed in power using increasing violence and repression against any opposition and lately against citizens in general. I despise what Trump represents and how he is dismantling the US, and there is no honest rational basis for an invasion or an attack, but at this stage if something good comes out of Trump’s daily madness and somehow Maduro and his cronies pay for their campaign of crime and misery against their own people I will for once celebrate. I have zero sympathy for Maduro and his clan, if he is reduced to dust Soleimani style by a US drone the planet will be marginally better, so will Venezuela, even if it does not last for long.
Nothing beats an insiders view. Any thoughts on how a power vacuum there might eventually be filled?
I am less concerned about a power vacuum than the ability of a legitimate government to maintain stability and peace. There is actually a network of people, business folks, and even individuals currently in the payroll of the regime that have been preparing for a transition, the leader of this group is the recent peace Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado. My best guess is that the guy who actually won the elections last year (Edmundo Gonzales) will initially assume power and include Machado in any transition government, she will eventually become president. I have to assume (not a safe assumption given we are talking Trump) that if the US really intends to effect regime change that they will coordinate with Machado and Gonzales. There is also a significant presence of advisors and support already in Venezuela (or ready to arrive on short notice) from El Salvador and Argentina, a lot of former and exiled Venezuelan opposition activists work for Bukele and Milei. The real problem is that Venezuela is a failed state, even Maduro and the regime do not control all areas of the country, they control the cities, but in rural areas, poor neighborhoods and in the amazon actual crime gangs have more power. Tren de Aragua is not fictional, they do exist and control portions of the country, and they do not respond or take orders from the regime, even if they collaborate for convenience and to facilitate criminal enterprises, like cocaine flow. Anyway, once Maduro is gone Machado will have to deal with these lawless, well armed and organized crime syndicates, it could get really ugly.
Thank you for your insight.
Agree. Very insightful. I learn more from H’s articles and the commentary than I do from mainstream sources.
My thought was that Trump going to war with Maduro was a way to distract voters from what’s going on at home that does not reflect well on him.
Singer & Citgo
Singer originally backed Rubio 2016