Oh Hell

Judging by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, this could be an “interesting” week, to employ a polite euphemism.

A few hours after posting sparse details of a SEAL mission to rescue a US airman stranded on a mountain range in Iran, Trump delivered a followup message on social media which felt surreal even in the context of Trumpian bombast.

Tuesday, he said, “will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran.” He was referring to his own deadline for the regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

On the off chance anyone was unclear as to what Trump wants and how his temperament’s holding up, he provided a window into the mindset of a self-described “stable genius.” “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards,” Trump said. “[O]r you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

Suffice to say Ibrahim Zolfaghari‘s got nothin’ on Trump in the absurdist bluster department. To reiterate a familiar talking point, this is why Trump’s immune to satire. As I put it last week, it’s borderline impossible to conjure fake Trump quotes funnier (or crazier) than real ones.

If your question’s whether he’s bluffing, I don’t have an answer. I doubt he does either. My guess is he’ll figure a way not to raze Iran’s critical infrastructure — he’s known for extending self-imposed deadlines, after all, particularly when the stakes are existential. But he sounds unserious enough to be serious, if that makes sense.

Plainly, the price action across markets will turn on whether Trump follows through. He’s threatening an irrevocable escalation with unknowable consequences. Well, unknowable beyond the obvious: Iran would consider everything and everyone within range of their remaining missiles and drones fair game.

That’s the geopolitical backdrop against which the BEA will deliver an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure for February, followed immediately by the BLS’s CPI report for March.

The latter’s expected to show a steep rise on the headline index for obvious reasons: Gas prices rose 36% last month.

As the figure shows, consensus is looking for a 1% month-to-month gain on the headline CPI index accompanied by a tamer 0.3% advance for the core measure.

Although the war’s too young to find its way into underlying price growth, it’ll get there eventually, energy being an input for everything and oil for most things.

I won’t call Thursday’s PCE readout irrelevant, but it’ll be overshadowed by the next day’s BLS release. “The timing of February’s core PCE being only one day ahead of the March’s core CPI limits the window of tradability for the former,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked, adding that “uncertainties and unknowns for the real economy created by the conflict in the Mideast will remain relevant for the forward path of Treasury yields as the specter of a meaningfully higher floor for oil prices will remain a touchstone for the bond bears.”

Indeed. That’ll be especially true in the event Trump goes ahead with sundry “stone age” threats on Tuesday, when his 48-hour deadline for a deal, a reopening of the Strait or both, expires.

In addition to the inflation updates, the March FOMC minutes are due Wednesday and the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment Friday, shortly after CPI.

On Sunday evening, Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s de facto head of state, responded to Trump’s threat(s).

“Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands,” Ghalibaf said. “Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes.”


 

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9 thoughts on “Oh Hell

  1. In the event that Trump actually follows through on his threats, what are the odds that prosecutors in the Hague bring him up on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity?

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