The biggest domestic political risk for Donald Trump from the war in Iran is obviously the dour prospect of flag-draped coffins.

Trump’s famously “Teflon,” but as I’ve suggested repeatedly in recent days, putting “regular” Marines (as opposed to special operators) on the ground in Iran’s very likely to be his political Waterloo.

His political instincts (which, on some important vectors, are quite good) advise against any sort of proper invasion, and I assume those instincts will win the day.

The next (i.e., second-) biggest domestic political risk is a renewed bout of inflation that doesn’t abate quickly.

The figure above’s a reminder you scarcely need assuming you drive a vehicle that requires gasoline: Gas prices are up a staggering 42% since the start of the war.

The national average was $4.14 on Tuesday. A year ago, it was $3.24. Should’ve bought a Tesla I guess. Or voted for Kamala. (“Just kill me,” someone said. “I’d rather die than either.”)

Although pump prices are the most visible manifestation of affordability risk from the conflict, they aren’t the only one.

At the local peak late last month, 10-year yields were up almost 50bps, and with the caveat that “oil shocks” isn’t a category of events that allows for apples-to-apples comparisons, there could be more where that came from if past is precedent.

The figure above, from BMO’s Ian Lyngen, gives you some context.

“Not all oil shocks are the same — they have occurred against vastly different economic backdrops and the fragility of the US employment and consumption profiles have arguably limited the market’s perception of the durability of the oil-driven selloff in Treasurys,” Lyngen wrote, in the accompanying note. “[But] history suggests there’s ample capacity for the bearish channel pattern to continue.”

Last Friday was the 25th trading session of the war. As Lyngen went on to say, after 50 sessions during five previous oil shocks, benchmark US borrowing costs were, on average, 70bps higher.

That average suggests another 30bps of upside from current levels, and while that might not sound like a lot (actually it does, but to a layperson it’s Greek), it’d be insult to injury for millions of Americans struggling to afford their first home.

Note that the median US monthly mortgage payment rose early this month from the same period a year ago, to $2,742. Although the uptick, just 0.4%, was small, it nevertheless counted as the first YoY increase in six months.

“Housing payments are climbing because the Iran war and rising oil prices have pushed the weekly average mortgage rate up,” Redfin’s Dana Anderson warned, noting that at one point last week, the daily average rate was nearly 6.65%.

But hey, if you’re an American whose finances are caught in the figurative crossfire, just remember it could be worse: You could be in Iran, where “crossfire” is literal.