Iran’s prepared to stop impeding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the US stops blockading the country’s ports and agrees to “postpone” nuclear enrichment negotiations.
That’s according to an Iranian proposal described by a US official and a pair of other sources familiar with the discussions, all of whom spoke to Axios following Abbas Araghchi’s “very fruitful,” as he described it, trip to Pakistan.
Diplomatic niceties aside, not much came of Araghchi’s Islamabad stopover nor, apparently, of a meeting with Haitham bin Tariq in Muscat on Sunday. He was in Moscow Monday to meet with Vladimir Putin, who I’m sure has all sorts of bad ideas about next steps for the conflict.
Donald Trump, who canceled Jared Kushner’s weekend trip to Islamabad (“There is tremendous infighting and confusion within [the Iranian] ‘leadership,'” Trump said. “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call.”), isn’t especially likely to leave the nuclear issue unresolved, but as I noted last week, the Iranians seem insufficiently apprised of the extent to which Trump would accept a nuclear “deal” that’s long on promises and short on binding specifics.
Virtually none of Trump’s “great” trade deals are binding, nor enforceable. They’re not even deals. They’re (famously) “MOUs.” There’s every reason to believe he’d accept a similarly vacuous MOU around Iran’s nuclear program, at least as a bridge that stops the fighting and reopens the Strait on the way to something more substantive down the road. What he probably won’t do, though, is let it go without some manner of headline he can sell, however disingenuously, to the American public as a “win.”
“The United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” The White House said, in a short statement responding to Iran’s latest proposal.
On Sunday, in an interview with Fox, Trump braved a technical explanation for the persistence of the US blockade. Here’s what he said:
When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them — they have no ships because of the blockade — what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth. It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.
It’s possible, albeit not likely, that I know even less about the specifics of hydrocarbon extraction, storage and processing than Trump, but my guess is that’s not precisely how it works.
Technically accurate or not, Trump’s overarching point is just that with no way to move product, Iran will be in the same boat as its neighbors: Forced to shut-in wells. That’s no good, and some say those shut-ins could start this week.
Apparently, Araghchi told everyone involved in the mediation process — Islamabad, but also Cairo, Ankara and Doha — that there’s no chance of a near-term consensus among what he called “the Iranian leadership,” regarding Trump’s list of demands.
At this point, the leadership is Guards chief Ahmad Vahidi, security boss Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, military coordinator Ali Abdollahi, Bagher Ghalibaf and, I guess, Masoud Pezeshkian, who I assume gets to voice an opinion even if it doesn’t count for anything.
Given the urgency of resuming energy flows through the Strait, Iran wants Trump to agree to a reciprocal unblocking of the waterway and a non-aggression pact that gives competing power bases in Tehran a chance to coalesce around a nuclear counter-offer.
While I don’t agree with Trump’s contention that Iran has “no cards,” they don’t have an especially strong hand. They have no access to hard currency and they’re staring down energy shut-ins.
Ghalibaf’s social media account — as distinct from Ghalibaf the person, who plainly isn’t writing his own material anymore — was back at it Monday. “They brag about the cards,” his account said. “SOH (partly played)+BEM(unplayed)+Pipelines(unplayed)= Inv Release (played)+Demand Destruction (partly played)+More Price Adj (to come). Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US!”
Meanwhile, some market commentators remain highly skeptical of the current conjuncture. “A properly functioning market would not be wagering on becoming the most expensive market ever amidst geopolitical uncertainty,” JonesTrading’s Mike O’Rourke said, noting that the S&P’s currently trading on a multiple that ranks 95%ile going back 72 years. “If markets continue to reward the depletion of energy stockpiles, those stockpiles will continue to shrink,” he added.
“Iran wants Trump to agree to a reciprocal unblocking….” Haven’t seen that reported anywhere else, but hope it’s accurate. Do you think that’s a good deal and Trump might accept it, or that there is more to it, like lifting sanctions?
I remember when he was planning to get out of the JCPOA, Trump would always say “It’s a terrible deal” but he could never explain why it was a terrible deal. He was never able, and never forced by reporters to answer, what exactly was so bad. So how is he going to explain how is new deal is better?
Oh, I now see that offer by Iran, as stated by Araghchi. Trump should take it.
Explosions ? I think I heard that Trump likes to see pictures. Listening to a long explanation of the damage shut in wells would experience, and how the whole system of getting the crude loaded on ships, once halted, would be an enormous challenge to anyone, probably would put him to sleep. So he is told ” Imagine a huge explosion that takes a long time to repair”. Trump has watched cartoons, he know explosions. That is what he meant.
light crude stagnant in a pipeline can increase pressure to the point exceeding that of the pipe. However for that to happen many things must go wrong and it is not likely all those things go wrong. Wishful thinking on someone’s part that the Iranians do not know how to manage pipelines I think. He could be subjected to those fantasies by the accolytes he surrounds himself with however. Which points to a potential cascading decision making failure events train that is starting to surface.
Capping and uncapping wells is also a very delicate process. If not done properly, and very slowly, the flow of the well can be ruined or lost completely.
true but that is different from pipeline failure. It is clear both require thoughtful plan. A plan that i believe is within the capability of the Iranian engineers who by many measures are some of the best in the world.
Iran’s fields are lower pressure.
The best documentary of the Trump presidency will be a satirical comedy. The good screenplay writers/actors will have a field day and there is no way that AI will ever be able to capture this level of absurdity and dark humor.
Maybe you could write a screenplay in your spare time? Combine your talents and interests.
WTF is new about any of this. Who cares about agreements anyway. Do they ever last. It’s stunted diplomacy that politicians use to hoodwink and confuse the masses. Unless I’m mistaken, once upon a time the US and Iran had an agreement that committed Iran to never having a nuclear weapon. And then the US tore it up, not because it wasn’t holding but on a political whim. What rational nation with some historical perspective would ever believe in an agreement with the US. If you’re uncertain, ask the First Americans how it went for them. US agreements, alliances and treaties are only good until a new administration takes over.
The real fly in the ointment is the Bomb. Of course Iran wants one as does every country that has an enemy who has one. All it gets them is assured, but not mutual, destruction if they ever used it. Many will be horrified by the thought of Iran with the Bomb because look how crazy they are. Maybe they’re crazy because they’ve been under constant attack since their last revolution. Iraq under Saddam Hussein with the help of the US used conventional and chemical weapons to kill hundreds of thousands of Iranians. If the Bomb could keep your mad neighbors in check who wouldn’t want one. Insanity is a relative term. If there are intelligent aliens out there observing planet earth, they know the whole place is crazy.
John, maybe you should adjust your news filter. Try adding some of this:
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/san-francisco-sea-lion-pier-39-chonkers-145628c0?st=u3fzrK&reflink=article_copyURL_share
That video about halfway down is too much. “Get tha’ f-ck up out tha’ way, Chonkers comin’ through!”
We had some guests in town last weekend and took them to Alcatraz then pier 39 where we saw Chonkers. Had no idea he had a name, but he is an absolute unit. I have no idea how he catches enough food to support that much mass.
Right? Like how does it even catch anything? Like in the fish afterlife, there’s an aquatic Saint Peter saying to Chonkers’ latest meal, “Yeah, not really sure how you didn’t see that one coming.”
The truth is Trump doesn’t really care about Iran’s nukes. Bibi does care and he is calling the game, with our money. He wants Iran dead, their people dead, Israel surrounded by a steel fence and nukeless neighbors, oh, and no more Hezbollah.
What is Bibi without an existential threat.
In jail
H is exactly right. Trump doesn’t care about anything other than a PR win for himself. Give him something he can ‘sell’ as a win and he’ll go back to napping and dreaming about the biggest gold ballroom in the world. After all, how good is an agreement with a country where no one is clearly in charge. And is any agreement valid if the person who signed it dies the next day. Iran, just write a one sentence statement that you’ll never have or use a nuclear weapon, attach it to some nuclear dust and Fedex it to the White House in a golden box.
Problem is that it is likely Iran sees this stailmate as a win. They are not having bombs rained down on them. They can access reserves adn restart production. Their cash flow from weapons sales can resume. Their primary enemies, Isreal and financier USA ,are flirting with global economic challenges that could in time sink king dollar. This could be seen as a once in a lifetime opportunity to change their fortunes for the better. Why stop?
Wow..did you see the comments that German Chancellor Merz just made about Iran humiliating the U.S.? Seems like he is lashing out because Germany is being hit hard by the energy shortages. I can’t wait to see what “Truth” post is about to be blasted out about NATO and Europe.
I’ve heard iterations of one idea for ending the war from various foreign policy experts that makes so little sense to me that I can’t understand how it is published with a straight face. Here’s how William Burns put it last week:
“At the heart of any good deal will be tight nuclear inspections, an extended moratorium on the enrichment of uranium and the export or dilution of Tehran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for tangible sanctions relief for Iran.”
On what basis could Iranian leadership think that if they give up all their existing enriched uranium, any “tangible” sanctions relief would be lasting?
Gambling analogies appear to be favored in DC. Think back to February when the president told Zelenskyy “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now.”
“ Iranians seem insufficiently apprised of the extent to which Trump would accept a nuclear “deal” that’s long on promises and short on binding specifics.”
I’m not so sure of this. I’d suggest they are aware of it, they are being advised by the Kremlin after all. I see this as a negotiating gambit by Iran. In an effort to burn time, they want to give the appearance of negotiating in good faith yet they include the poison pill related to uranium knowing it will be rejected.
The theoretical oil crisis (as opposed to the currently priced supply disruption) is about to get real in about 1-2 weeks for Asia and will be global by the end of May unless the Strait is opened. Then chip manufacturing comes under pressure in late summer if helium supplies are not restored.