The first thing to know or, more aptly, to recall, is that The United Arab Emirates has floated the idea of leaving OPEC (later OPEC+) on multiple occasions over the past two decades.

“Floated” isn’t an especially strong word. It’s actually weaker than “suggested.” But it might be too strong in this context, so let’s say instead that the UAE periodically expresses dissatisfaction with the cartel, and particularly with the extent to which the quota system undermines Emirati interests.

The most serious rift came in July of 2021, when Abu Dhabi threatened to veto an agreed-upon supply increase in lieu of an adjustment to the UAE’s baseline production level, raising the specter of a defection.

Long story short, the UAE argued they were being forced into disproportionate cuts because their baseline was established prior to a series of investment initiatives which increased their maximum capacity. They said the same thing late in 2020, after earning a reprimand from Riyadh for daring to produce above their limit.

During the 2020 standoff, it was widely reported that Abu Dhabi was questioning the benefits of staying in the alliance, if only in closed-door settings. Just months before the 2021 spat, ADNOC launched its flagship Murban benchmark, a move that signaled the Emirates’ intent to transition from the cartel model to market-driven pricing.

Around two years later, in March of 2023, the Wall Street Journal said the UAE was still bickering with the Saudis over quotas, and may ultimately exit the alliance so they might ramp up exports. UAE officials denied the reports, as was their wont. The standard line was always the same: Just because the UAE’s working to increase production capacity doesn’t mean it’s leaving OPEC.

Suffice to say, as RBC’s Helima Croft put it half a decade ago, “there has been a distinct question mark over the durability of UAE’s OPEC membership and its willingness to continue idling its expensive spare capacity” for a very long time.

So, no, it wasn’t a “shock” when the UAE made it official on Tuesday: They’re leaving, after more than half a century, on May 1.

“This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production,” the official statement, copied in full below, said, adding that the move “reinforces” the UAE’s “commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets.”

Again, this was years in the making. The UAE wants to expand production by as much as a third. That’s not realistic within OPEC+, and if you think about it, this is a good time to make the move. The implication — i.e., that a huge producer intends to ramp up output — is bearish, but with Brent in the triple-digits, there’s no risk of catalyzing an unwanted drop in prices.

When the Strait reopens, there’ll be pent-up global demand. Emergency reserves tapped during the war will need to be topped up, and so on. As Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Bloomberg, “The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market [which] is undersupplied.”

Obviously, this is a huge blow to OPEC’s sway, which was already diminished by the rise of America as an energy superpower. They’ve just lost a lot of on-paper spare capacity.

Although Mohammed bin Salman was surely given a heads up about the UAE’s plans to formally exit, this does have the potential to create even more friction between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, who haven’t been on the same page since 2018, when the UAE started backing a different horse in Yemen.

To the extent you can interpret the Emirates’ go-your-own-way approach to energy as a broader comment on UAE foreign policy, the three Sunni Gulf powers are now all pursing their own agendas. Qatar’s long prized its foreign policy independence and exited OPEC in 2019.

Naturally, there were questions Tuesday about a possible connection between the UAE’s decision and the Emirates’ recent request for a dollar swap line. I don’t think there’s much there, frankly.

The dirham’s pegged, but Abu Dhabi has plenty of reserves. There’s no shortage of dollars in the UAE. They just wanted to make a point to the Trump administration. Something like this: We’re hosting your military assets and your war’s now causing us a lot of headaches, so we’re going to need commitments from you that acknowledge our sacrifices and assistance — it’s the least you can do.

In remarks to The New York Times, Al Mazrouei was plainspoken about the OPEC calculus. “The world needs more energy, the world needs more resources,” he said. “And the UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups.”

Full WAM statement

ABU DHABI, 28th April, 2026 (WAM) — The United Arab Emirates today announced its decision to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+), effective 1 May 2026. This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets.

This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs.

Sovereign Responsibility in a New Energy Age

While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term.

A stable global energy system depends on flexible, reliable, and affordable supply. The UAE has invested to meet evolving demand efficiently and responsibly, prioritising stability, affordability, and sustainability.

This decision follows decades of constructive cooperation. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and continued its membership following the formation of the United Arab Emirates in 1971. Throughout this period, the UAE has played an active role in supporting global oil market stability and strengthening dialogue among producing nations.

The decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE’s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner.

A Reliable and Responsible Energy Partner

The UAE is a trusted producer of some of the world’s most cost-competitive and lower-carbon barrels, which will play an important role in supporting global growth and emissions reduction.

Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.

With a large and competitive resource base, the UAE will continue working with partners to develop resources, supporting economic growth and diversification.

This decision does not alter the UAE’s commitment to global market stability or its approach based on cooperation with producers and consumers. Rather, it enhances the UAE’s ability to respond to evolving market needs.

We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance and wish them success. During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets. This is what we will focus on going forward.

A Balanced and Forward-Looking Approach

The UAE reaffirmed that its production policies will be guided by responsibility and market stability, taking into account global supply and demand.

It will continue investing across the energy value chain, including oil, gas, renewables, and low-carbon solutions, to support resilience and long-term energy system transformation.

The UAE values more than five decades of cooperation with partners and will continue active engagement in support of stable global energy markets.

---