The last time European gas prices were this insane, Vladimir Putin’s hordes of enlisted convicts and drunken conscripts were marauding around southern and eastern Ukraine. Oh, wait. They’re still there.

Europe’s benchmark surged again on Tuesday as the fate of the LNG market hung in the balance. Production at QatarEnergy, a crucial source of global supply, was halted Monday after an Iranian drone attack. The state-run facility remains closed as of this writing.

Even if it weren’t (closed), there are still grave concerns about stranded product given the risks of transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid what Donald Trump indicated on Monday is still likely to be a weeks-long war despite the swift dispatching of Ali Khamenei and his regime’s top military command.

There’s the chart. Benchmark prices have almost doubled since Friday. Harrowing as that seems, it’s worth noting that during 2022’s existential energy crisis in Europe, benchmark prices were five times that high, equivalent to roughly $600/bbl crude.

No one’s entirely sure how long the shutdown in Qatar will last, but Doha’s no enemy of Tehran’s. Qatar’s neutral. They’re “the Switzerland of the Middle East” — if the Swiss were double-dealing, murderous soccer fanatics instead of purveyors of fine watches and chocolate.

Qatar, you’ll recall, was subjected to a regional boycott in 2017 when, without a shred of shame or irony to account for — well, you know — Riyadh accused Doha of habitually supporting extremism, which I described at the time as akin to McDonald’s boycotting Burger King for endangering the lives of Americans by pushing unhealthy fast food on customers.

The Qatar blockade wasn’t about financing terror. It was about Doha’s determination to pursue an independent foreign policy, which in some cases meant fostering a working relationship with the regime in Tehran. Remember: Hamas’s politburo resides in Doha.

So, it’s fair to assess that the Qataris are a bit indignant at being targeted by Iran. It’s one thing for the IRGC to stage performative “strikes” on the Al Udeid Air Base (the largest American base in the region). It’s another to target LNG production. The Emiri Air Force said it had to shoot down a pair of Russian-made fighter jets flying from Iran on Monday.

It seems unlikely that Iran will continue to menace Qatar directly. More than three-quarters of their LNG goes to Asia, where benchmark prices are also up sharply. China alone accounts for nearly 20%. Earlier this week, reports suggested Beijing’s made it clear to Tehran that China doesn’t want to see gas exports from Qatar disrupted.

Citing unnamed industry executives, Bloomberg wrote that the leadership in Tehran was “asked” by the Chinese to “avoid striking exporting hubs” in Qatar, which by itself accounts for almost a third of China’s LNG. That’s “a significant portion of the total even accounting for output arriving by pipeline and from other sources,” the linked article said. With very few exceptions, Xi Jinping doesn’t “ask.”

Meanwhile, the Qataris implored the Trump administration to wrap it up. According to an “assessment” shared with the Western media, Doha told Washington that ongoing disruptions to regional shipping lanes would very likely result in an even “more significant market reaction for natural gas prices.”

Of course, the US has plenty of natural gas, and Trump’s going to do what Trump’s going to do. But he does owe Qatar a favor for that plane.