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Featured

‘Vol Cubed’ Explodes, Eclipsing ‘Even Volmageddon’

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Trial Balloon

    November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Nvidia Beats, Raises, Hikes Buybacks And Dividend

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Surprise: Nvidia topped estimates and guided ahead of consensus for current-quarter revenue in hotly-anticipated results

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4 Comments on Nvidia Beats, Raises, Hikes Buybacks And Dividend

Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Good luck, Kevin. You’re gonna need it. That’s a concise summary of the April FOMC

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6 Comments on Kevin Warsh Versus ‘Vast Majority’

War Triggers Fastest US Mortgage-Rate Spike In Years

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

Not surprisingly, and as tipped here last week, US mortgage rates posted another sharp increase

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2 Comments on War Triggers Fastest US Mortgage-Rate Spike In Years

‘Very Quickly And In A Very Nice Manner’?

May 20, 2026May 21, 2026

A couple of hours after four GOP senators broke ranks to help Democrats advance a

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2 Comments on ‘Very Quickly And In A Very Nice Manner’?

Strategic Partners, War Powers And A Plan Gone Awry

May 20, 2026May 20, 2026

A resumption of open military hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran is “unacceptable,” Xi

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2 Comments on Strategic Partners, War Powers And A Plan Gone Awry

Scott Bessent Has A Bond Problem

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

“Rates are too high, Scott,” Donald Trump said, while hosting a high-level delegation from Riyadh

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7 Comments on Scott Bessent Has A Bond Problem

Hope Floats As Home Contract Signings Rise Third Month

May 19, 2026

Hope springs eternal. Contract activity in the still-frozen, but hopefully thawing, US housing market managed

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Leave a Comment on Hope Floats As Home Contract Signings Rise Third Month

Beware The Market’s Negative Convexity Problem

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

If and when a meaningful equity pullback finally comes calling, market participants may be “treated”

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1 Comment on Beware The Market’s Negative Convexity Problem

Kevin Warsh Should Tell Trump The Truth

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

My advice to Kevin Warsh — not that he asked for it — is to

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9 Comments on Kevin Warsh Should Tell Trump The Truth

$450 Billion Goes ‘All In’ As Stock Bets Soar Most Ever

May 19, 2026May 20, 2026

Professional capital allocators with more than $450 billion in AUM cut cash levels and lifted

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Leave a Comment on $450 Billion Goes ‘All In’ As Stock Bets Soar Most Ever

‘The One Big Trade’

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Customers of Wall Street’s most prestigious firm, not to mention investors in general, are worried

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Leave a Comment on ‘The One Big Trade’

Iran War Hammers US Builder Mood

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Well, it could’ve been worse. The first of this week’s sparse US macro data offered

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Leave a Comment on Iran War Hammers US Builder Mood

Breadth Metrics Plunge, Fanning Narrow Market Worries

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

If you like your rallies broad and your breadth “healthy,” you’re not enamored with 2026’s

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Leave a Comment on Breadth Metrics Plunge, Fanning Narrow Market Worries

Xi Jinping’s Economy Just Had A Very, Very Bad Month

May 18, 2026May 19, 2026

Exports. That’s all Xi Jinping’s economy has going for it. On Monday, apparatchiks at the

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2 Comments on Xi Jinping’s Economy Just Had A Very, Very Bad Month

That Bear’s Got A Match!

May 17, 2026May 18, 2026

You missed it, didn’t you? The rally, I mean. The 30% Nasdaq surge from the

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2 Comments on That Bear’s Got A Match!

Summer Unofficially Begins With War, Ebola, Rates Panic

May 17, 2026May 18, 2026

Summer, and the lackadaisical torpidity that often accompanies it, are right around the corner. In

Read More

15 Comments on Summer Unofficially Begins With War, Ebola, Rates Panic

The Fastest Way To Lose Voters

May 16, 2026May 18, 2026

It’s an election year in the US, in case you needed a reminder. In more

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10 Comments on The Fastest Way To Lose Voters

Weekly: Bonds Call Time-Out

May 15, 2026May 18, 2026

I’m both a rally skeptic and not. I harbor a deeply-engrained pessimism about more or

Read More

7 Comments on Weekly: Bonds Call Time-Out

Are Chip Stocks The Biggest Bubble Since 1700?

May 15, 2026May 17, 2026

Stop the presses: As of noon on Friday in the US, red-hot semis were on

Read More

9 Comments on Are Chip Stocks The Biggest Bubble Since 1700?

The Big Squeeze

May 15, 2026May 17, 2026

Thank God for the upper-half of the “K.” I mean, not in the sense that

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Stock Rally Menaced Anew By Inflation, Surging Bond Yields

May 15, 2026May 16, 2026

Eventually, stocks will correct. That was one message from BofA’s Michael Hartnett who, in the

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2 Comments on Stock Rally Menaced Anew By Inflation, Surging Bond Yields

The Buyers Were Still Higher

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

Buyers are still higher in equities. Perhaps you noticed. The S&P headed into the US

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1 Comment on The Buyers Were Still Higher

Cisco Surge Is Pure Dot-Com Déjà Vu

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

As if the sense of dot-com déjà vu wasn’t strong enough already. On Thursday, investors

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13 Comments on Cisco Surge Is Pure Dot-Com Déjà Vu

The US Consumer Refuses To Crack

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

Nominal spending on gas and groceries rose in April in tandem with price increases for

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1 Comment on The US Consumer Refuses To Crack

‘Constructive Strategic Stability’

May 14, 2026May 15, 2026

“Collision or even clashes.” That’s what’ll happen in the unfortunate event America “mishandles” the Taiwan

Read More

8 Comments on ‘Constructive Strategic Stability’

Kevin Warsh Is In A Pickle Already

May 13, 2026May 15, 2026

Not to rub it in or otherwise belabor the point, but Kevin Warsh can forget

Read More

1 Comment on Kevin Warsh Is In A Pickle Already

War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates

May 13, 2026May 14, 2026

Purchase activity in America’s gridlocked US housing market moved up over the last week. Just

Read More

2 Comments on War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • therealheisenberg on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)
  • John L on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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