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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Downed Fighter Jet Is A Reminder: It’s Time To Go

April 3, 2026April 6, 2026

Take the win and go home. There’s only downside from here. Don’t say I didn’t

Read More

35 Comments on Downed Fighter Jet Is A Reminder: It’s Time To Go

US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.

April 3, 2026April 5, 2026

Overall hiring across the world’s largest economy reaccelerated dramatically last month after a sharp decline,

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2 Comments on US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.

The Dow Was 50,000

April 2, 2026April 5, 2026

They do ring bells at the top. You just have to listen. On February 11,

Read More

10 Comments on The Dow Was 50,000

‘Fired And Forgotten In A Desolate World’

April 2, 2026April 4, 2026

If you’re not using AI, and thereby aren’t apprised of its rapidly-evolving capabilities, you should

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14 Comments on ‘Fired And Forgotten In A Desolate World’

Anyone Hiring?

April 2, 2026April 3, 2026

I’m reasonably (ok, totally) sure no one cares, but I feel like I should mention

Read More

1 Comment on Anyone Hiring?

Iran’s Military Ramps Up Propaganda As Trump Eyes Exit

April 2, 2026April 3, 2026

The US and Israel “know nothing about our vast and strategic capabilities,” an indignant Ibrahim

Read More

15 Comments on Iran’s Military Ramps Up Propaganda As Trump Eyes Exit

Mission Accomplished?

April 1, 2026April 2, 2026

“That’s so far underground, I don’t care about that.” So said Donald Trump Wednesday during

Read More

11 Comments on Mission Accomplished?

Day After Planning

April 1, 2026April 2, 2026

“We have dealt ten plagues upon the Axis of Evil,” Benjamin Netanyahu declared, addressing the

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11 Comments on Day After Planning

Key Factory Price Gauge Goes Vertical Amid War, Tariffs

April 1, 2026April 2, 2026

Don’t look now, but the marquee gauge of US factory activity just printed in expansion

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3 Comments on Key Factory Price Gauge Goes Vertical Amid War, Tariffs

Americans Were Back To Shopping On Eve Of Iran War

April 1, 2026April 1, 2026

For whatever it’s worth — technically a lot in a world where the overall price

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5 Comments on Americans Were Back To Shopping On Eve Of Iran War

Some Folks Were Hired. Allegedly.

April 1, 2026April 2, 2026

Good news: The US private sector added more jobs than expected in March. That’s according

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Leave a Comment on Some Folks Were Hired. Allegedly.

Peace Dividend

March 31, 2026April 1, 2026

Did you listen to Bill Ackman? Did you “ignore the bears” on the way to

Read More

9 Comments on Peace Dividend

Trump Dangerously Close To Right Decision On Iran

March 31, 2026April 1, 2026

Get your own damn energy. Or buy some from us. We’ve got plenty. That was

Read More

79 Comments on Trump Dangerously Close To Right Decision On Iran

Real US Housing Wealth Continues To Shrink

March 31, 2026March 31, 2026

US homes are still getting cheaper. In real terms, anyway. To employ my standard joke:

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Leave a Comment on Real US Housing Wealth Continues To Shrink

US Hiring Rate Dives To 15-Year Low

March 31, 2026April 1, 2026

For the eighth consecutive month, there were more jobless than job openings across the world’s

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2 Comments on US Hiring Rate Dives To 15-Year Low

American Consumers Hang On, But ‘Skew Towards Pessimism’

March 31, 2026April 1, 2026

Against the odds, consumer confidence in America improved in March on what the Conference Board

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Leave a Comment on American Consumers Hang On, But ‘Skew Towards Pessimism’

Bad News Bears

March 30, 2026March 31, 2026

As a reformed macro-market propagandist, I’m a recognized authority on negative economic news. I’ve been

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2 Comments on Bad News Bears

Bill Vs. Bagher

March 30, 2026March 31, 2026

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s

Read More

4 Comments on Bill Vs. Bagher

50%

March 30, 2026March 31, 2026

If it’s worth doing, it’s worth doing big. That’s Donald Trump’s mantra, and we’ve seen

Read More

9 Comments on 509

The Cause Is Dead. Let Iran Try To Be A Nation

March 30, 2026March 31, 2026

“My favorite thing is to take the oil.” That’s a direct quote from Donald Trump

Read More

26 Comments on The Cause Is Dead. Let Iran Try To Be A Nation

Trump Should Take The Win In Iran

March 29, 2026March 30, 2026

“Conventional infantry troops.” That’s not what anybody wants to hear from the Pentagon when it

Read More

32 Comments on Trump Should Take The Win In Iran

Can America’s Teetering Jobs Market Avoid Back-To-Back Losses?

March 29, 2026March 30, 2026

I’d say traders’ focus will turn to the US labor market this week, but that’d

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Leave a Comment on Can America’s Teetering Jobs Market Avoid Back-To-Back Losses?

Restless Wall Street Out Of Patience With Iran War

March 28, 2026March 30, 2026

At the index level, the five-week selloff in US equities is the furthest thing from

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5 Comments on Restless Wall Street Out Of Patience With Iran War

Weekly: The Ghalibaf Question

March 27, 2026March 30, 2026

Israel wanted to kill Bagher Ghalibaf. And the IDF knew his “coordinates.” But Donald Trump

Read More

18 Comments on Weekly: The Ghalibaf Question

TACO Fail

March 27, 2026March 29, 2026

“There’s no clean TACO off-ramp.” That’s what the ER doctor says when you show up

Read More

15 Comments on TACO Fail

Double-Barreled War Risk Bombs Household Mood

March 27, 2026March 29, 2026

Not surprisingly in light of the war’s impact on gas prices, the US consumer mood

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1 Comment on Double-Barreled War Risk Bombs Household Mood

Iran Can’t Bet On American Democracy To Save Regime

March 26, 2026March 28, 2026

It could’ve been worse. A lot worse. That’s Donald Trump’s characteristically tone-deaf message to American motorists

Read More

16 Comments on Iran Can’t Bet On American Democracy To Save Regime

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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