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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Viktor Orban Ousted In Stunning Hungary Landslide

April 12, 2026April 13, 2026

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s over for Viktor Orban’s “illiberal democracy” in Hungary. On Sunday, Orban’s

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25 Comments on Viktor Orban Ousted In Stunning Hungary Landslide

Trump Announces Naval Blockade Of Iran, Strait of Hormuz

April 12, 2026April 13, 2026

Donald Trump has an idea. When that’s the starting point, things tend to get dicey

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15 Comments on Trump Announces Naval Blockade Of Iran, Strait of Hormuz

‘Buckle Up’

April 12, 2026April 13, 2026

The official macro docket’s pretty light in the US this week, but the next several

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No Deal

April 11, 2026April 13, 2026

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement,” JD Vance said, after

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18 Comments on No Deal

When In Pakistan…

April 11, 2026April 12, 2026

This weekend, a US delegation led by ostensible “America First”er JD Vance had an opportunity to

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3 Comments on When In Pakistan…

Weekly: All Eyes On Islamabad

April 10, 2026April 12, 2026

Generally speaking, it’s not a good bet that benchmark US equities will fall six weeks

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9 Comments on Weekly: All Eyes On Islamabad

The Home Sellers Are Desperate

April 10, 2026April 11, 2026

In the US housing market, sellers are desperate. Amid an enormous imbalance favoring buyer leverage,

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5 Comments on The Home Sellers Are Desperate

15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low

April 10, 2026April 12, 2026

Congratulations to Donald Trump: He’s now the proud owner of the lowest consumer sentiment readout

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2 Comments on 15 Months Into ‘Golden Age,’ American Mood Hits Record Low

Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge

April 10, 2026April 11, 2026

Headline inflation in the US jumped sharply last month, as surging oil prices pushed the

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6 Comments on Trump Makes History With Near-Record Energy Cost Surge

Confusion Reigns As Netanyahu Sends Mixed Signals On Lebanon

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Or not. Under what I imagine was intense pressure from The

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6 Comments on Confusion Reigns As Netanyahu Sends Mixed Signals On Lebanon

Cursed

April 9, 2026April 9, 2026

I   “Monks, suppose this great earth were totally covered with water, and a man

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17 Comments on Cursed

Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

Underlying US inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure was uncomfortably warm for a third month

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2 Comments on Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth

Lebanon As Linchpin

April 9, 2026April 10, 2026

“Israel’s right to defend itself does not justify inflicting massive destruction.” So said Kaja Kallas,

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13 Comments on Lebanon As Linchpin

Day One Violations

April 8, 2026April 10, 2026

If you were still unclear as to who’s actually in charge in Iran — and

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18 Comments on Day One Violations

Iran’s MIA Uranium And A ‘Beautiful Thing’

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

We’ve all heard enough from Pete Hegseth, but considering he’s America’s war czar and the

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12 Comments on Iran’s MIA Uranium And A ‘Beautiful Thing’

Mechanical Stock-Buying In Play On ‘Face-Ripper’ Rally

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

By now, all regular readers should be able to write their own script re: mechanical

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V-Day (Everybody’s A Winner!)

April 8, 2026April 9, 2026

Risk sentiment was predictably buoyant Wednesday, as markets around the world cheered a two-week ceasefire

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8 Comments on V-Day (Everybody’s A Winner!)

Apocalypse Later

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

Donald Trump’s a peacemaker at heart. No, he never won a Nobel Peace Prize, but

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21 Comments on Apocalypse Later

‘Genocidal Lunatic’: Did Trump Finally Go Too Far?

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

“This is sickening.” So said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk on Tuesday

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11 Comments on ‘Genocidal Lunatic’: Did Trump Finally Go Too Far?

War Spreads Beyond Pump Prices For Anxious Americans

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

The biggest domestic political risk for Donald Trump from the war in Iran is obviously

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2 Comments on War Spreads Beyond Pump Prices For Anxious Americans

Dear Iran: Just Cut Trump In

April 7, 2026April 8, 2026

“Way” back on March 14 — technically that was less than four weeks ago, but

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28 Comments on Dear Iran: Just Cut Trump In

‘Please Keep Bombing!’ Trump Says Iranians Beg For Airstrikes

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Fearing the world hadn’t met its daily crazy quota, Donald Trump convened an afternoon press

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33 Comments on ‘Please Keep Bombing!’ Trump Says Iranians Beg For Airstrikes

Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Bad news. (I know, I know: “What other kind of news is there these days?”)

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2 Comments on Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot

Doomsday Deadline

April 6, 2026April 7, 2026

Ibrahim Zolfaghari was back at it Monday. If America strikes Iran’s civilian infrastructure, “subsequent phases”

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8 Comments on Doomsday Deadline

Oh Hell

April 5, 2026April 7, 2026

Judging by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, this could be an “interesting” week, to employ a polite

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9 Comments on Oh Hell

Team 6 Mythos Grows In Wild Airman Rescue

April 5, 2026April 6, 2026

Who you gonna call? The missing American Wizzo whose plane was shot down during a

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19 Comments on Team 6 Mythos Grows In Wild Airman Rescue

Weekly: Back To Normal

April 4, 2026April 6, 2026

I realize many (most?) readers don’t like this framing, and in a lot of important

Read More

14 Comments on Weekly: Back To Normal

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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