I suppose we should all know better than to instruct a man who was reelected to the highest office on Earth despite being convicted of 34 felonies between his first and second terms on political strategy, but I’m not sure “I love it” is the best answer for a politician if the question is “What do you think about the fastest inflation in three years?”

But that’s the answer Donald Trump gave on Wednesday when queried on the first four-handle headline CPI print since the man he mercilessly derided for, among other things, presiding over a generational inflation spike, was president.

To be “fair” (as if that’s a courtesy Trump affords anyone else), his rejoinder was partially sarcastic and anyway doubled as a setup for a meandering monologue about clandestine oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Still — and setting aside Trump’s penchant for defying electoral odds — the only thing less popular than a senseless Mideast melee is inflation. Trump has both on his second-term resume, and the latter (rising inflation) is a direct result of the former (the Mideast melee).

The figure below shows Trump’s single-issue approval rating for inflation. Each point represents a different poll. The trend (in red) is clear.

The shaded pink area represents Trump’s average approval rating on inflation since the start of the war on February 27: It’s below 30% now.

Note that Trump’s average single-issue inflation polling since the war began is lower than all but four of the individual-poll results over the course of his second term.

He plainly believes this isn’t going to torpedo the GOP in November, and maybe he’s right, but… well, suffice to say this is a good time to update the real earnings chart.

With Wednesday’s CPI release, we can now compute the inflation-adjusted annual rate of pay growth for May. It was, as expected, negative for a second month, and the “corrosion” rate, if you will, was considerably quicker versus April.

This is part and parcel of the household angst that manifested earlier this week in the worst read on households’ personal finance perceptions in 43 months.

The latest installment of the New York Fed’s consumer poll found the total share expecting to be either “much” or “somewhat” worse off in a year rose to 36%, the highest since “Liberation Day,” while the share expecting to be better off slipped below 23%. The spread — negative 13% — represented the most pessimistic assessment of household financial conditions since October of 2022, when the S&P troughed.

The figure above plots real earnings growth with the personal saving rate which, you’ll politely recall, dropped to 2.6% in the last BEA personal income and spending release.

That 2.6% figure was tied for the second-lowest of the post-pandemic era and counted among the lowest prints on record in data back to 1959 if you exclude the lead-up to the GFC.

This is why Trump needs the stock market to stay afloat and the AI boom to continue apace. As long as the vaunted “wealth effect” bolsters the upper-half of the “K,” consumer spending can hold up. And as long as nonresidential investment’s buoyed by AI capex, so can GDP.

As for Main Street… well, what can you say? Should’ve thought about all of this before reelecting the silver-spoon convicted felon who favors golden plumbing fixtures.