Not a day goes by.
When Donald Trump doesn’t make me chuckle.
Dejectedly, disdainfully, despairingly, sure. But chuckle all the same.
On Wednesday, following the quickest annual headline CPI print in more than three years, Trump was asked at a White House event whether he’s “concerned about the latest inflation numbers.”
“No, I love it,” a sleepy-sounding, possibly sarcastic, Trump drawled. “The numbers were great.” Before the inquisitive reporter could follow up, Trump delivered an — what’s the right word? — interesting monologue. Here it is, verbatim:
You know what I really love? I love the inflation, you know why? Because as soon as this war is over — you know I can say it now, something you didn’t know. Do you know we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil? Nobody knows it — you know who doesn’t know about it? Iran, until right now. I’m just announcing it for the first time right now. We’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Millions of barrels. Every night, we took out oil. But now I’m gonna tell you because they just figured it out. So now that they figured it out I can tell you. It was very hard for me — I wanted to say it so badly, I didn’t want to ruin it but — millions of barrels of oil ha[ve] come out, and that’s why it’s at $85 or $90 a barrel instead of $250.
It wasn’t immediately clear what Trump meant by “taking out,” but one can only assume he was referring to the same dynamic Bloomberg documented on Wednesday when Weilun Soon, Salma El Wardany, Prejula Prem and Alex Longley noted that “a growing number of tankers are turning their transponders off to lift oil flows” through the Strait of Hormuz.
That “stealth” effort to “sneak” by the IRGC undetected is bringing a meaningful share of stranded supply to market. When considered with much smaller volumes freed up by the US Navy’s initiative to shepherd vessels through the blockaded waterway, the total amount of liberated supply amounts to “millions of barrels” and the flow through the Strait has gone from “a trickle to a stream,” as the same linked article put it.
I doubt Iran’s actually unapprised. And I’m certain they’re not completely unaware, as Trump suggested. Moreover, the dark flows aren’t a fix, they’re a last resort. No one wants to drive a tanker through a (possibly mined) waterway at night, with the lights off, to avoid being shot at, boarded, commandeered or all three, by the IRGC. This isn’t a sustainable strategy.
The gist of the Bloomberg piece is that some two million barrels per day of product are slipping through the IRGC’s quarantine. Between that “extra” (versus the near total cessation of flows observed during the worst of the crunch) supply, stepped up US energy exports, pipelines that bypass the Strait and the dramatic decline in Chinese imports mentioned here on Tuesday, the world’s managed to avert an existential price spike. So far.
But, again, this is far from ideal. And now that Trump’s celebrating, publicly, the so-called “dark transits,” the Guards can be expected to step up enforcement efforts. How effective they’ll be at plugging the proverbial leak’s an open question, but what’s not up for debate is the fact that flows won’t resume at anything beyond a fraction of their peacetime levels absent an actual, durable peace deal.
In the same Wednesday remarks, Trump said the US military intends to follow up on Tuesday’s retaliatory strikes for the downing of an Apache near the Strait.
“We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today,” he said. “We’re going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard.”
Peace through strength. Truce through violence. Price relief through inflation.


I dunno, but I see this as his proclivity for seeing anavoidable trends and jumping on them. Afterall he was a Democrat once espousing the same line if not to the left of Democrats on some issues as I recall.
Those campaign consultants for the mid-terms won’t have to work very hard to come up with attack ads this year.
The world uses 100 million barrels a day. So in one 3 month war, you can sneak out a one day supply of crude oil., in 6 months, 2days….etc…
Kind of silly, the radar on even a cheap, small boat can see across the straight of Hormuz. It’s not like you need a military grade aviation type radar to see a ship on the water. The Houthis have been using $3,000 Simrad radars for years to target ships.
https://loosecannon.substack.com/p/back-in-the-fight-houthis-use-simrad
China has been using its reserves and Overland routes. Fortune speculates that when China steps back into the market crude may go to 200. Iran must’ve been passively, allowing this or engaged in some way.
This is also a very temporary solution. If I’m a ship owner/captain/crew stuck in a Kuwait harbour for 3 months, I might finally be motivated to take risk to leave. But I’ll be damned if I am coming back before there is a full settlement.
Not precisely on point, but don’t you think this captures the current Drumphie IRGC standoff?
Watched an American leader speak eloquently yesterday in multiple languages , in a place created to bring a societies disaffected industrial working classes back from extremest reactionary views , to turn them away from the anarchist violence and anti-clerical hostility and extremism. And also saw another American leader string together nouns, verbs and adjectives in such a confused manner , its made Paulie Walnuts sound like an intellectual giant. The first one was the pope, the 2nd one needs no explanation.