Much to the chagrin of — let’s round up or, who knows, maybe I’m actually rounding down here — the one-third of American society inclined to anemoia for the Antebellum Era, it’s a holiday-shortened week in the US.

Friday’s Juneteenth, and if the choice is between an extra day off for summer hamburger grilling and celebrating the enforcement of the Emancipation Proclamation… well, let’s just say it’s a close call for a lot of white Americans, even if a bonus three-day weekend ultimately wins out.

Unfortunately, I’m not kidding. Juneteenth’s a controversial holiday and stripped of the faux nuance, that controversy boils down to the unspoken contention among some Americans that the nation would do better to forget its founding in forced labor.

What can you say? You don’t have to say anything if you live in a blue state. If you live in red states, as I do, you humor your neighbors, even as you internally lament their hopeless, bigoted ignorance. Not because you want to encourage bad behavior, but because you know there’s no chance of changing their minds and, as a practical matter, because if you live in a nice neighborhood, they’re the people drilling your teeth, caring for your pets and, should you need some manner of life-saving procedure, handling your vital organs.

So, it’s best to play along. The fate your cavity, your pet’s infected lick granuloma and/or your clogged arteries might just depend on it. (“Hell Lee, don’t let it get ya down like that. We’ll get some of that Weber Kansas City BBQ seasoning you love so much and grill us up some chicken.” “Gosh, you mean it, neighbor?” “I sure do, buddy. And you know I don’t drink, but I’ll be sure to pick you up some Yuengling while I’m out.”)

Anyway, the June FOMC meeting’s obviously this week’s marquee macro event. You can (and probably should) read both of the previews I penned, “Kevin Warsh’s Audience Of One” and “‘Which Warsh?’ What To Expect From The June FOMC.”

Long stories short, the Fed will likely drop the easing bias from the policy statement this week, the dot plot refresh will probably reflect no cuts in 2026 and Kevin Warsh will be pressed by reporters to reconcile his boss’s rate-cut demands with the prevailing inflation profile which, if anything, argues for rate hikes.

Five and a half hours before the Fed decision, traders will get US retail sales data covering May. The headline’s expected to show nominal spending rose 0.5% last month, a decent showing in the face of still-dour (if improving) household sentiment and pervasive concerns about inflation’s corrosive effect on incomes.

The retail sales control group — i.e., the aggregate that counts for GDP forecasting — has remained strong in recent months despite the “I drink your milkshake” effect from soaring pump prices.

Sooner or later, you’d expect negative real income growth to chip away at consumption, particularly as cash buffers dwindle (recall that the saving rate fell to a rock-bottom 2.6% in April). Or maybe not.

As the figure below reminds you, real retail sales flatlined once the “stimmy” buzz wore off, but never caught down to the ongoing plunge in a key gauge of Main Street moods.

That disparity’s presumably explainable by the figurative and literal fortunes of well-to-do American homeowners possessed of financial assets (i.e., the upper-half of the “K”) who are able to spend come hell or high inflation.

That’s why the US equity market’s increasingly described as “too big to fail.” That and the fact that it’s twice the size of the real economy.

Also on deck this week in the US: Homebuilder sentiment for June (seen below the threshold separating net optimism from pessimism for a 26th month), new construction data for May (starts and permits are both seen posting declines) and pending home sales (seen notching a fourth straight gain).

Overseas, China will release activity data for May (that’ll be eyed closely in the wake of a disastrous April), a rate hike from the BoJ and a likely hold from the BoE.

Happy Juneteenth to those who celebrate. To those who don’t, grin and bear it. It’s the least you can do.