Well, you know what they say about rock bottom: It’s a solid foundation.

After hitting their lowest levels in 48 years of monthly data in May, all three University of Michigan sentiment indicators moved up in the initial readouts for June.

The headline, 48.9, remains objectively abysmal, but at least managed to top estimates in Friday’s only notable US macro update. Consensus was 46.

The 9% MoM gain was the largest in a year and yet, as the simple figure makes abundantly clear, households remain deeply concerned about the economy and their prospects in it.

Both the current conditions and expectations gauges posted meaningful gains, with the latter up nearly 12% as inflation expectations abated at both horizons.

Still, and as survey director Joanne Hsu was quick to note in the editorial accompanying the release, the year-ahead outlook for consumer price growth, 4.6%, “substantially exceeds” levels observed just prior to the onset of the war.

At the five-year point, inflation expectations were 3.4% in the first temperature check for June. As the figure reminds you, the upward inflection in expectations beginning in 2021 never subsided. Not entirely, anyway.

That’s something the Fed should be, and notwithstanding public assurances about “still-anchored” expectations, is, quite wary of.

With headline CPI just a touch below the unemployment rate, risks to the Fed’s dual mandate are plainly asymmetric. As it turns out, households agree.

The figure above, from the Michigan release, illustrates the point. The shaded area shows the impact of the war.

“Even with June’s early gains, views of the economy are still relatively dour,” Hsu went on. “Consumers remain focused on kitchen table issues [and] feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation [which they] worry could remain stubborn going forward.”

I’m sorry, but I can’t help myself: “I love it!”