Donald Trump who, as of 8:22 AM in Washington on Thursday, was prepared to hit Iran “very hard” during what would’ve been a second consecutive night of US bombing, postponed additional attacks on the country five hours later.
The “scheduled strikes” were “canceled,” Trump said, on social media, citing “the fact that discussions” with the regime in Tehran “have been brought to the highest level of leadership and approved.”
It was unclear, initially, what that meant, but Trump likely intended to suggest that after weeks of dithering, an extension of the two-month ceasefire which broke down in recent days was at long last decided and agreed.
“Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and others,” Trump wrote, without naming Iran.
The US will continue to blockade Iran’s ports “until [the] transaction is finalized,” he went on, adding that both sides were working Thursday to agree on a “time and place” to sign the MOU we’ve heard so much (and yet so little) about.
Later, in the Oval Office, Trump talked up “a great settlement of the war.” Related “documents” are in the process of being “finalized” and should be signed “over the next few days.”
If tonight’s airstrikes on Iran are “canceled,” I assume the invasion is too. Early Thursday, in an apparent fit of irritability, Trump said the US military was prepared to seize Kharg Island and commandeer Iran’s natural resources, Venezuela-style, if the Guards don’t come to their senses “soon.”
US equities added to gains on news of the canceled attacks. Brent slipped below $90 and Treasury yields fell.
Trump would say this is textbook “art of the deal.” I’d say it’s asinine. Even if, as appears likely, the threat of a return to all-out war and the specter of US troops on Iranian soil lit a fire under a diplomatic process that had flamed out in the smoking remains of dead Lebanese and the smoldering ashes of structures crumpled by retributive missile fire, publicizing every twist and turn only serves to make Trump seem even more mercurial than we all know him to be.
The fact that Wall Street largely ignored his invasion threat on Thursday morning says a lot about how much figurative and literal stock investors place in Trump’s intraday mood swings by now.
“Impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse,” Bagher Ghalibaf warned, two hours before Trump’s change of heart. Energy infrastructure would burn, as would markets, on a return to full-on war, “creat[ing] an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years,” he added.


Smells like Tuesday’s dinner. ?
Trump is truly the master of creating a mess, teaching the market to ignore it, but then slingshot the market forward when he doesn’t follow through on the worst case scenario.
Mood swings ! You nailed it!
Who was front running this time? Trump, Jared, Jr, Eric, Howard, lil’ Marco, big bad Pete(not the Disney character)….what a cesspool.
“Trump would say this is textbook ‘art of the deal.’ I’d say it’s asinine. . . .”
Aside from the fact that people’s lives and livelihoods hang in the balance, whipsawing markets like this cannot be good. Can you imagine where the markets would be right now if we had never initiated this conflict? Decent jobs reports, oil under $60 a bbl. for the foreseeable future, relatively stable inflation, and lower interest rates. The S&P 500 would likely have eclipsed 8,000 by now, and the NASDAQ would be “to infinity and beyond.” I don’t like the man or his policies, but he was about to reap the benefits of his own tax cuts and deregulation policies. Instead here we are. In honor of the World Cup, another classic Trump own goal.
The war can wait another 24 hours. Mustn’t spoil the SpaceX IPO.