The Revolution overthrew a hereditary monarchy. 47 years later, it became one.
Early Monday, Iran’s so-called Assembly of Experts said Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed his father as Supreme Leader, a questionable choice for a number of reasons, not least of which is the irony mentioned above.
In 2024, Ali Khamenei reportedly told the panel of “elected” clerics responsible for choosing the Supreme Leader (you can only be elected to the Assembly of Experts if the Guardian Council approves of your candidacy) that he opposed even the suggestion that one of his sons be considered for the top job.
Khamenei the father understood the absurdity (or if that’s too strong, we can call it a glaring contradiction) of a movement which began as a revolt against inherited power passing a de facto dictator role from father to son with no input from the people.
Alas, here we are, with Mojtaba ascending the throne. If he had any principles about him — or was concerned about his physical well-being — he would’ve turned down the appointment. At least he’s qualified religiously for the job. His father actually wasn’t. Not initially, anyway.
Setting aside that his close relationship with the IRGC could serve as a firewall against a military coup, and forgetting that his considerable (to employ an amusing understatement) name recognition commands loyalty and invokes nostalgia if you’re a hardliner, this was arguably a bad move at a critical juncture.
Most obviously, Donald Trump said last week that Mojtaba’s “unacceptable.” I chafe as much as anybody else at the notion that Trump should wield veto power over a sovereign country’s internal leadership deliberations (even in cases where those deliberations aren’t democratic), but right now, the unavoidable reality is that Mojtaba’s marked for assassination. In selecting him, Iran signed his death warrant.
Israel said as much over the weekend. “We want to tell you that the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor,” the IDF gloated, on its official Farsi social media accounts.
“We warn all those who intend to participate in the successor selection meeting that we will not hesitate to target you either,” the IDF added, threatening to kill all 88 members of the Assembly of Experts. That’s not a bluff. Israel tried to bomb a selection meeting in Qom last week, but nobody was there.
Time and again over the past two years, the IDF has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that Iran’s military-security apparatus is hopelessly compromised. If Mossad doesn’t know where Mojtaba is at this very moment, it’s only because their regime collaborators were accidentally killed last week.
In that context, I’m not sure whether it’s a good or a bad thing that Mojtaba’s so well-connected inside the military-security establishment. It’s full of moles and holes.
In addition to losing his father in recent days, Mojtaba also lost his mother, a sister, a son and his wife, all to the US-Israeli bombardment. Without wanting to come across as unduly macabre, his odds of being reunited with his family in the weeks and months ahead are quite high.
As far as the domestic reception, this is a slap in the face to everyone who was hoping (against hope) that the US-Israeli pressure campaign might force the regime to consider a voluntary restructuring, for lack of a better way to put it. Now, in addition to being a repressive, militant theocracy, Iran’s an overtly ancestral dynasty.
I should mention that on one interpretation, this choice might be more clever than it looks. I don’t put a lot of stock in this narrative, but it’s at least possible that in choosing Mojtaba, Iran’s clerical leadership actually opened the door to selective, or even across-the-board, rapprochement.
The thinking behind that interpretation’s straightforward: His name’s Khamenei. That means he can do whatever he wants.
So, if Mojtaba decides the best course is to cut a deal with Trump, or reach across the sectarian divide to his counterparts in the Sunni monarchies, he can do so without having to fear a military coup or a dressing-down from hardliners.
Take that for whatever it’s worth. Mojtaba was 56. Sorry, is 56.
What happened to the rumor that the Russians were providing intelligence to the Iranians? That should upset the “friendship” with Putin and Trump? In the midst of all this other news that seems to have been lost?
When the desalinators go this will become a horrific situation. I say when not if because it seems to be the trajectory of this special military operation. I already expect oil production facilities to be targets every, the IDF just put all oil production in the crosshairs.
I also expect the Trump regime to commandeere one or more domestic oil production firms to support his special military operation. Gas shortages are likely. 2026 is shaping up to be a uniquely awful year.
“When the desalinators go this will become a horrific situation.”
Indeed. Think of all the money that private credit & equity investors might lose? This is getting serious now.
It is hard to imagine anyone more corrupt than Khamenei (either of them).
Khamenei (the first one) slaughtered tens of thousands of his own people, just months ago, for having the audacity to say that they were tired of his oppressive reign. It is hard to get more corrupt than that.
Until you consider the corruption of Trump. Then it might be about a tie.
Netanyahu doesn’t quite the make the grade, but he is not too far behind.
All these guys are meant for each other. It is a puddle of slime, and a competition to see which one can exude a more toxic stench.
It is nice to think of America standing for truth and justice, but that is no longer the case.
We have taken a dark turn. Where does this all end up?
The road forked a long time ago and the US unfortunately took the wrong path.
Sadly, the US seems to be bound to pick the wrong path, both to the wrong allies and the wrong enemies.
Crude futures are up over 20% ($110 per barrel for WTI) with twelve hours until the market opens. Trump has a long night ahead of him to consider ways to get oil tankers (safely) through the Strait of Hormuz ASAP. Or, he can call for a cease fire. Either way, he’s going to be making big moves tomorrow if the markets don’t firm up soon.
Unfortunately, the son appears spunkier than his dad, even while wearing a bullseye. That doesn’t bode well for anyone within 2000 kilometers of Tehran.
It’s laughable that Fat Don Crumpf would be up all night worrying about anything other than himself 🙂
Mojtaba is the rabbit. He already had a target on his back, and anyone named the new leader would get a massive target placed on their back and be unable to rule. By being the rabbit Mojtaba frees up the regime while he hides in the grass and moves through the underbrush. Surely he knows he can’t actually be the leader, but he can be a martyr.
America has lost its shadow!
I’m disappointed that they couldn’t find a Kheimoni to keep the pattern going.