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Oil To $100?
Markets are, I'd argue, largely desensitized to geopolitical conflict.
Part of that's the 24-7, "al
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As I looked for the transmission channel to stocks and bonds, I realized the there were few direct links, aside for a hopefully brief oil price rise. The I realized, Xi could threaten or effect a Taiwan maneuver, or blockade to stand by their ‘ally’ Iran. That would wake the stonks up. I looked and have not seen much reaction from Xi and his subjects.
I wanted to add that my comment above is not trying to make light of these events. In fact, in my line of work the geopolitical volatility has risen and as that occurs outlier event potential has risen dramatically. That the administration has no actual plan for stability and by default is running the Libya ‘strategy’ opens up potential for numerous unintended consequences. It also seems likely that Cuba could face regime change, and who knows what else. The autocratic giants will react eventually.
Americans are about to fall in love with EV’s. I’ve always argued that the marketing around these vehicles should have centered on economics and not the environment.
Yeah, I keep telling friends that I haven’t driven in almost two years now, as I have a robot that drives me around and costs about $8 to fill up at home. Somehow it never seems to sink in. Americans are a stubborn lot.
I urge you all to listen to Geopolitical Cousins with Marco Papic. Available on Spottily and elsewhere
The sell-off in TLT is what has me surprised.
BKE impact from higher oil prices + wars are expensive & funded at the long-end + screaming hot ISM Manu Prices print
Here’s that ISM Prices story. It got lost in the melee today, but it’s notable: https://heisenbergreport.com/2026/03/02/key-factory-price-metric-soars-most-since-2020
Not surprised if you ascribe to Ray Dalio’s analysis. I have come to realize Jaime Dimon has a similar take.