The death toll in Iran rose near 600 on Monday, as US and Israeli strikes continued across the country.
Donald Trump indicated that military operations against regime targets could carry on for weeks, even as he left the door open for negotiations in the event the leadership in Tehran “returns to its senses,” as the United Arab Emirates put it, chastising the IRGC for missile and drone attacks across the region.
Trump also announced the first US servicemember deaths. Three Americans were killed at a base in Kuwait. “Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends,” he said.
The earliest national polling suggests the war isn’t popular. Not even one in three American adults said they supported the attacks on Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Broken down by partisan affiliation, just over over half of Republicans approved of the strikes. Three quarters of Democrats disapproved.
Americans are instinctually averse to wars in the Mideast. Trump knows that, which is why he campaigned, in part, on extricating the US from conflicts in the region. Now here we are. And in a mid-term year, no less.
Iran continues to lose leaders. Four-dozen senior regime officials and military officers are dead since Saturday, and the IRGC navy’s is in the process of being destroyed. At least nine ships are sunk as of this writing.
Hezbollah’s doing what they can, offering token support for the regime with rocket attacks on Israel. The IDF responded with strikes on Beirut’s Dahiya neighborhood, Hezbollah’s power center where both Hassan Nasrallah and his heir apparent and cousin, Hashem Safieddine, were killed in 2024. The IDF said Monday that Israel intends to kill Naim Qassem who, upon Safieddine’s demise, became Hezbollah’s secretary general more or less by default.
Lebanon closed all its schools, designating many as bomb shelters for hundreds of displaced locals forced to abandon their homes amid the Israeli onslaught. “Do not return to your homes!” the IDF told Lebanese. “Defense Army raids are ongoing.” Three dozen people in Lebanon are dead.
Air traffic in the region ground to a halt with all (or most) flights suspended from major Mideast carriers. There was a small-ish fire at Ras Tanura, the world’s most important oil refinery, which was targeted by a pair of Iranian drones, both of which were intercepted.
Aramco closed the facility as a precautionary measure. The incident drew predictable comparisons with the historic attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais in September of 2019, but this is nothing on that scale. The fire at the refinery was caused by falling debris.
Several US fighter jets crashed in Kuwait, according to the country’s defense ministry, which said no Americans died in the incident. There was no immediate word on what caused the crashes.
In remarks to NPR, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said the country, governed by a triumvirate since Ali Khamenei’s weekend assassination, intends to appoint a new Supreme Leader “within the next few days, I hope.”
Trump, during a meandering interview with The New York Times, sketched a number of possible “day after” scenarios for Iran. In one, the IRGC just walks away. “They would really surrender to the people, if you think about it,” he said.
Hopefully, this ends soon with minimal lives lost, on all sides. A bonus would be to return Iran to the Iranians, not the IRGC or the authoritarian theocracy.
Unfortunately, history has shown us on multiple occasions, that neither bombing or negotiating have proven to be completely effective, without serious downsides. The best solution would be to reduce the US demand for oil.
I read somewhere that as China shifts energy production towards solar and nuclear, their oil imports were down over 5% in 2025 vs. 2024.
We can’t get to nuclear power fast enough. In my lifetime, I am hopeful that population growth continues to decline leading to declining population (save the environment) and we get to SMRs (stop drilling/corruption/wars).
China has solar farms that are capable of powering NYC. Their EV production is so robust that there are literally hundreds of companies making them. While we pivot away from green energy China is becoming the global leader in it.
This is incredible!
https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/chinas-tech-giant-unveils-1900-hp-ev
Holy God that’s beautiful. The video half-way down that article might as well be something out of Tron.
This strikes me as somewhat odd “three quarters of Democrats disapproved” while Iranian-Americans in various cities across the United States have taken to the streets to rejoice and celebrate the attacks, particularly the demise of Khamenei. Might the Iranian people better grasp the goings-on of the situation than say a bunch of people who’ve barely ventured out of their own home states (think Minnesota) – let alone the country. Gives me pause on assigning a value to a statistic of this sort. Is it a fair statement to say the war is “unpopular” with your average Iranian.
Paul, it’s 2026. Three quarters (or more) of Democrats are going to disapprove of anything Trump does, the same way three quarters of Republicans (or more) disapproved of anything Joe Biden did. And of course hyper-partisanship distorts the polling. That’s not the pollsters’ fault, it’s our fault as a society.
Also, in the context of the Reuters poll, whether the war’s unpopular “with your average Iranian” is irrelevant. What this sort of polling is trying to get at is how a given policy decision, domestic or foreign, is likely to impact US elections, in which “your average Iranian” can’t vote. (If Trump has his way, your “average” American won’t be voting in them either if they’re not going to vote GOP.) — > https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/us/politics/trump-save-act-elections.html
We really went all out with the parentheses! Good thing Donald Trump will fail miserably in that pursuit. A pity it’s a topic at all and at least the NT Times isn’t hyper-partisan. As far as the average American and Iranian, God help them.
” while Iranian-Americans in various cities across the United States have taken to the streets to rejoice and celebrate the attacks”
Emigrees always resent forces which took over/nationalized their homeland and forced them to leave. I remember hearing Eastern Europeans in the USA lamenting the loss of their steel company in Czechoslovakia or a tire factory in Poland or vast estates in Romania. In terms of the impact on US politics, Cuban exiles in Florida take the cake. Or the remnants of Chiang Kai Shek’s defeated army in Taiwan dreaming of returning to the mainland and reclaiming their properties.
A long-winded explanation of why the opinions of emigrees who landed here do not necessarily match the opinions of those who remained.
Did congress approve this war yet or is it a special military operation? Serious question. Just want to understand whether Trump is fully allowed to bomb everything to pieces (and let allies clean up the mess and absorb incoming fire) without having to deliberate with US lawmakers.
The President notified congress within 48 hours, so his obligations are basically met. At this point he effectively has carte blanche unless Congress votes to stop it.
Thank you!
Hopefully not another Iraq. Saddam gone, we had no puppet to install that would be accepted, and it looks like the same thing here. When you break it, you own it. Stirring up these backward societies might be good in the long term, but it will take years, not weeks.
It’s not a “backward” society, Lee. Look up “Persia.” Google’s your friend.
My son-in-law is half Persian, the other half Egyptian. I have a dream that, in my lifetime, I will be able to take he and my daughter to visit “Persia”, see the sights and experience the culture!
He is first generation US born.
That 55% problem you depicted is THE problem. Until that wall of support is broken by something that forces them to see reality for what it is, we’re stuck in this situation.
“The F-15 jets were were “mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defences”, officials announced in a statement on Monday. All six crew ejected safely and have been recovered, they added.”
I’m curious about which air defense system was able to do that?
Good question.
First, what went wrong for not one but three US fighters to be shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses (assuming the reports are correct). Multiple systems including IFF are meant to prevent this. Unless the three were shot down in quick succession, those systems would have been rechecked after the first shoot down.
Second, what was used to shoot them down. Kuwait probably has various air defenses able to shoot down an F-15, from Patriot on down. I saw a video of a F15 seemingly in one piece in a flat spin with pilots ejecting, and (assuming the video was genuine) that may be a hint.
More replenishment orders for the military-industrial complex! The missile makers have been enjoying most of the consumption, about time the airframe guys got a piece.
Lest we forget….. elected government overthrown by coup supported and enabled by US CIA and British MI6 in 1953. Shah installed, oil majors extremely happy. The blowback took 26 years to fully surface: the Islamic Revolution ousts the Shah, upends American election, installs (basically) the current regime, which lasts until…..well, maybe yesterday?
What is happening now will likely have consequences unforeseen (especially for woefully in-over-their-heads American regime) with a timeline that is unknown. Lord only knows what has escaped from the box that President Pandora just opened.
My concern is that Trump and planning don’t fit into the same paragraph, let alone the same sentence. Which means no end game; just like Iraq and Afghanistan (and Somalia).
I am absolutely fine with cutting the serpent’s head off, but the reality show host and talk show host must generate some kind of exit plan to enable success.