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‘Judgment Day’
"Here's the truth," Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday, addressing the UN General Assembly. "Israel year
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“Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.”
— Matthew 26:52
Hezbollah should have considered, and Iran probably is considering, Netanyahu’s position. He is backed into a corner, trapped by public opinion and his own legal risks, where his logical action will almost always be to escalate.
Two minutes ago, from the NY Times:
“The initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies, based on the number and the size of the bombs used and information gathered from inside the militant group, is that Mr. Nasrallah has been killed, the officials said. But they cautioned that conclusion may yet change.”
I guess NYT should change its story title “Who is Hassan Nasrallah” to “Who was Hassan Nasrallah”.
Now question is, will Israel ground forces go into Lebanon? What will Iran do?
Guessing “yes” and “nothing much”. Netanyahu has between a month and three months while the US is firmly navel-gazing, he wants Hezbollah’s missile caches, and Israelis are less likely to oust him while IDF is fighting in Lebanon. What can Iran do when, as Dr H says, their choice is between humiliation and destruction. Send more drones to the Houthis?
And of course the most salient question, for investors if not for human beings: will anything send oil prices up? C’mon already.
What could go wrong for Israel and the US now? How about a real hothead decides to boost his chances of assuming Nasrallah’s role by doing something wild & outrageous? Which, of course, would provoke a similar response from Jerusalem?
A not insignificant swath of Hezbollah’s leadership has been killed by Israel over the last week, and it’s now apparent the group has been thoroughly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. Reading reports out of Beirut this morning, it seems like the biggest short-term danger is the outbreak of conflict between Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah elements within Lebanon itself.
If Lebanon is freed from Hezbollah- what a great outcome for the Lebanese.
I got two Lebanese friends saying this is the best thing to happen to Lebanon in a while…
Do those Lebanese friends actually live in Lebanon?
Not anymore, though they visit regularly and have remaining family there.
And, sure, the fact the Hezbollah was instrumental in a civil war that destroyed their country might color their views…
And ended decades of rule by the Maronite Christian minority.
In order to continue to keep downward pressure on the price of oil and to therefore reduce oil revenues to Iran and Russia from the sale of oil, the US can continue ramping up oil production (currently at a record high 13.2M BPD- which is about 6.5% over 2023 production rate) and continue to reopen/build new nuclear power plants to meet growing electricity demand.
Not a bad outcome for the US economy/people, as well.
Anyone else thinking Heisenberg has lost Internet/electricity on account of a certain weather event?
What are you talking about? I published a 3,000-word ad hoc Monthly Letter this morning (it’s right there on the home page) and I just sent a 1,500-word Weekly to the inboxes of every Plus subscriber 30 seconds ago. I’m not anywhere near those “weather events.”
Bad guess, shrug emoji.
Just finished reading the monthly, didn’t have anything in my inbox when I started reading it.
This is H during the last 24 hours:
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