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Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’
SocGen's Albert Edwards knows a thing or five about macroeconomic apocalypses, having predicted all
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I’ll know you’re serious when you exchange your wardrobe for Patagonia and join a nighttime fight club.
Until then, I’ll continue doing what I’ve done with Avgo for the past decade- buy the dips. 🙂
Or trades in the Mercedes for a Range Rover!
Oh God, I’d never do that. The Mercedes is stressful enough in terms of being finicky. A Range Rover would be even worse in that regard. I’m seriously considering trading down to an Acura TLX Type-S for the reliability. I’m doing a lot more driving these days, and that AMG I have isn’t supposed to be an everyday driver.
What the jobs narrative ignores is the potential and some say real world ability of AI to reduce market friction. I used it the other day when trying to determine landlord quality when looking at 25 listings. I typed in ‘Does ____ company enjoy a good reputation in _______ apartment rental marketplace?’ The results were surprising. I think I ended up with a responsible manager. Time will tell, but at least I avoided some who were labeled slumlords.
I have seen other examples where market friction is reduced. I recently installed a free database in my linux computer using an ai engine to troubleshoot some installation problems. IT was bumpy but got the job done without spending a dime.
I am also cognizant of how it might replace jobs. However nothing I have used it for yet has replaced any human function. I note that the people I talk with are using it in a less advanced way than me. Therefore they are not there yet either. There are quite a number more advanced but a security consultant told me that AI in the hands of a hacker makes her job more labor intensive. So go figure.
I mean, at the end of the day it’s really hard to beat the Japanese manufacturers for reliability.
Just don’t succumb to the temptation to get an NSX. That beast’s a widow-maker.
The groundwork is definitely here for an economic apocalypse. On the other side are numerous forces that will try to delay it, particularly during an election year, so call it a slow rolling apocalypse. It seems certain now that AI will eat numerous traditional forms of employment while not creating an equal number of quality alternatives. If I’m reading H correctly here, I’m in agreement that an even bigger and more fundamental problem is and will continue to be a nation of “dumbasses” without a liberal arts degree. Who needs to be able to think critically when a machine can do it for you.
I’ve never been a fan of investing in gold because I couldn’t understand why, now I own my fair share as a component of the apocalypse trade.
I think if we learned anything from the GFC, it’s that the market will be the last thing to react to a severe economic downturn. Trump’s new Fed chair slashing rates to near nothing will only prolong the market’s resilience, even if the news is wall to wall coverage of people in bread lines.
My prediction is that Trump forces the credit card issuers to drop credit card interest rates this summer. Just in time for the midterms.
Since we’re respecting the recently deceased, Rest In Power to Oliver Grant as well… Too young.
You can still be a dumbass with a four-year degree … just sayin
Oh, absolutely. I’d never deny this. In fact, I’m continually amazed at how dumb I am despite being over-educated.
Zadie Smith talks about this all the time — how much there is to know, and how every, single time you delve into something you discover how little you actually know about the world.
A person only develops wisdom when it becomes obvious how little knowledge said person has.
Fear always finds a receptive audience, which is why I don’t find the Edwards missives helpful. You’ve done a great job covering the Citrini apocalyptic scenario, which is clearly the work of a shortseller. Any thorough analysis would consider multiple possible future scenarios, not just the doomerist view.
You mention the Brits. They did vote for Brexit prior to the US voting for Trump (twice). Not sure that makes the less educated among them unbearable – but if they are into their drinking, you are probably not going to get a lot of thinking.
” . . . like Harrison Ford, Nick Faldo, and a young Dennis Quaid.”
Which one of you is (most like) the salty English golfer that takes forever to get around the course?