Boy, I’ll tell you what: US housing’s in a bad, bad way.

I realize this is repetitive, but every day there’s another reminder.

Take Wednesday, for example. This week’s MBA update showed the average 30-year fixed fell to just 6.09% over the last week. So, we’re one meaningful 10-year rally from five-handle mortgage rates.

And yet, as the figure above shows, purchase activity fell again, both on a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis.

Although MBA VP Joel Kan was quick to point out that the purchase gauge rose 12% versus the same period a year ago, that’s a low bar. Rates were 80bps higher then and prices were still rising in inflation-adjusted terms, which is to say the market was much less forgiving.

The fact that the lowest mortgage rates since — checks notes — September of 2022 and a near 50% imbalance between sellers and buyers can’t unfreeze the market speaks volumes about just how intractable this situation is.

Redfin data out this week showed nearly 14% of sale agreements were canceled last month, the highest share for any January on record in data going back nearly a decade.

“[Buyers are] second-guessing the wisdom of making a huge purchase when there’s a fear in the back of their mind about the state of the economy and the uncertainty of their finances,” a Los Angeles-based agent told Redfin’s Dana Anderson, for a piece published on Tuesday.

“That’s particularly true when they’re first-time buyers who don’t have equity from a previous home sale, and they’re using most or all of their savings on a down payment,” the same agent said.

There you go. As usual, Redfin’s coverage is straightforward and dead on. Consumers, and particularly younger Americans, just don’t have the confidence to make this kind of commitment.

As noted here late last week, the 12-month rolling average of the University of Michigan’s forward-looking measure of expected household finances hit a new record low this month.