The Fed’s in their self-imposed communications blackout this week ahead of a September policy meeting
Author: therealheisenberg
CPI, Jobs Revisions Are Make Or Break For Super-Sized Fed Cut
It’s CPI week in the US, but the relevance of the BLS inflation update for
Ishiba Exits As Japanese Voter Angst Grows
Shigeru Ishiba’s done. He was actually done months ago, in July, when a lackluster result
ADP’s Revenge
I suppose we all owe ADP an apology. For most of the post-pandemic era, macro
Silver Lining (As Easy As 1, 2, Recession)
Donald Trump may not be happy with Friday’s jobs report, but he should be pleased
Dark Comedy
Comedy. It’s a fixture of autocratic regimes. Dark comedy, sure. But comedy all the same.
Goodbye US Hiring
Somebody’s fired. Again. If Donald Trump was trying to send a message to the BLS
Thank A Robot ($191.5 Billion)
If we’re going to scapegoat “the machines” for escalatory selloffs as we so often do
28 Weeks Later
I suppose the Donald Trump macro “golden age” quips are tired by now. If not,
Mighty American Services Sector Is A Good News, Bad News Story
How about some good news? Anybody interested in that? Not really? I didn’t think so.
US Labor Market Teeters As Jobless Claims Jump, Layoffs Rise
And the hits just keep on comin.’ Jobless claims in the US jumped to 237,000
Private Hiring Slows Again As US Employers ‘Whipsawed’
“Whipsawed by uncertainty.” That’s the US labor market in 2025. The description comes from ADP
Don’t Say It Out Loud
Wall Street’s beginning to think the unthinkable. And to say it aloud, just not always
Policy Errors And Politicization
Is the Fed making a policy mistake by cutting rates at this month’s meeting? Note
When You Lose The Acyclical Jobs…
I should say a few more words about Wednesday’s update on job openings across the
One-To-One No More
There were considerably fewer open jobs across the US economy at the end of July
Little Men, Big Parades
Earlier this week, in “Autocrats On Parade,” I spent some time talking about the importance
In US Housing: An Emergency
As a general rule, you don’t want to be spending more than a third of
Welcome To September
It was notable that the long-end of the US Treasury curve saw no relief Tuesday
‘We’re Bringing Back Factory Jobs’!
Hiring. Tuesday’s update on America’s marquee gauge of manufacturing activity was all about hiring. Specifically:
Signs Of The Times (Gold And Gilts)
Call them signs of the times. On Tuesday, long-end UK yields were the highest in
Autocrats On Parade
The more autocratic you are as a leader, the more important optics tend to be.
No Bad News Allowed
It’s a big week on the macro front in the US, where traders will return
Midnight In America
Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal. Or something. This — the court battle over the legality
Enjoy It While It Lasts
All’s well that ends well? That’s a question. I don’t know the answer. Stocks slipped
Fed Politicization Is A 2026 Story, Traders Bet
It could’ve been worse. Indeed, I’ll argue it should’ve been worse. “It” is the bond
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