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Author: therealheisenberg

Turkey’s Lira Confronts Lose-Lose Reality In New Erdogan Term

June 7, 2023June 7, 2023

It’s back to lamenting the lira. When it became clear last month that Recep Tayyip

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Canada Restarts Rate Hikes, Warns Inflation ‘Could Get Stuck’ Higher

June 7, 2023June 7, 2023

It’s becoming clearer by the day that even in economies where rate increases should be

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1 Comment on Canada Restarts Rate Hikes, Warns Inflation ‘Could Get Stuck’ Higher

Chinese Economy Can’t Win For Losing

June 7, 2023June 7, 2023

“Weak demand!” Screamed Chinese trade figures released on Wednesday. The numbers, which were disappointing, extended

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There’s Always A Disconnect Somewhere

June 6, 2023

Stocks are disconnected from the macro. How often have you heard that in your investing

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Lessons From The Apparent Nord Stream Coverup

June 6, 2023June 6, 2023

All’s fair in love and war, which I suppose means we can forgive Ukraine if

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6 Comments on Lessons From The Apparent Nord Stream Coverup

Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds, ‘Undoing’ SVB-Inspired Revision

June 6, 2023June 7, 2023

Good news! The increase in US recession odds associated with SVB’s collapse was a false

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1 Comment on Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds, ‘Undoing’ SVB-Inspired Revision

‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case

June 6, 2023

As most readers have doubtlessly surmised, the tech-driven rally in US equities has done exactly

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2 Comments on ‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case

Dam It

June 6, 2023June 7, 2023

While thousands of overprivileged upper-middle class citizens across the world’s most advanced economies excitedly acclaimed

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3 Comments on Dam It

When A Pause Is Just A Pause

June 6, 2023June 7, 2023

While previewing this week’s data void in the US, I jokingly noted that traders concerned

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Concentrating On Concentration

June 5, 2023

Just how concentrated is the US equity market? Well, the most concentrated ever on at

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Under The Lacquer, A Benighted Market

June 5, 2023June 6, 2023

At this point, the narrative is so familiar that just about anybody could pen a

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4 Comments on Under The Lacquer, A Benighted Market

Young Retail Investors Spotted In New Tech Frenzy

June 5, 2023June 6, 2023

Retail investors may be back at it in US tech shares. You don’t so much

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3 Comments on Young Retail Investors Spotted In New Tech Frenzy

As Summer Beckons, Surveys Paint Divergent Picture Of US Services

June 5, 2023June 6, 2023

US services sector activity decelerated to the brink of contraction in May, in what counted

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Top Strategist Sees ‘Moment Of Recognition’ For US Stocks

June 5, 2023June 5, 2023

For just the fifth time in nearly a quarter century, the forward earnings growth forecast

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S&P On Brink Of Bull Market Brings Out The Bears

June 5, 2023June 6, 2023

The bears are out. With the S&P on the brink of a bull market, many

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1 Comment on S&P On Brink Of Bull Market Brings Out The Bears

In Effect Until Recession

June 4, 2023June 5, 2023

If you’re inclined to suggest the recession crowd is treading dangerously close to Boy Who

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4 Comments on In Effect Until Recession

Contextless Void

June 4, 2023June 5, 2023

It should be a very quiet week for US traders. The data docket is nearly

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20 Comments on Contextless Void

Zeitgeist 2023

June 3, 2023June 5, 2023

A funny thing happened this week. Or you might call it a very unfunny thing

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9 Comments on Zeitgeist 2023

Quixotic Bears Tested In 2023 Stock Melt-Up

June 3, 2023June 5, 2023

It’s easy to confuse forced capitulation with a loss of conviction. Think of Bill Ackman

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4 Comments on Quixotic Bears Tested In 2023 Stock Melt-Up

Cheating Gravity With The ‘Magnificent 7’

June 2, 2023June 4, 2023

Just how dominant is big US tech in 2023? Or, put differently, how magnificent are

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6 Comments on Cheating Gravity With The ‘Magnificent 7’

Imminent Global Liquidity Drain Estimated At Up To $1.5 Trillion

June 2, 2023

It’s time for your weekly liquidity warning. Late last month, I walked back through a

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2 Comments on Imminent Global Liquidity Drain Estimated At Up To $1.5 Trillion

Tide Suddenly Turns For US Stock Fund Flows

June 2, 2023June 2, 2023

The flows story of 2023 is the massive influx of cash into… well, into cash.

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‘FOMO’ Morphs Into ‘FOCUS’ Amid A.I. Frenzy

June 2, 2023June 4, 2023

“This cross-asset price rally is about to become a ‘wealth effect’ problem for them again,”

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5 Comments on ‘FOMO’ Morphs Into ‘FOCUS’ Amid A.I. Frenzy

US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

The US economy added a hefty 339,000 jobs in May, hotly-anticipated data released on Friday

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4 Comments on US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

Monopolies

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

Not surprisingly, money poured into tech-focused equity funds over the latest weekly reporting period, a

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1 Comment on Monopolies

Déjà Vu: Money Market Assets, Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hit New Records

June 1, 2023

Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster? Pick your favorite Phil Connors quote to

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3 Comments on Déjà Vu: Money Market Assets, Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hit New Records

A.I. Came For Thousands Of Human Jobs Last Month

June 1, 2023

Lost in the proverbial shuffle Thursday: What might’ve been the first A.I. cameo in a

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Monthly Letter+

  • Deterioration, Dissolution And Default

    May 29, 2023May 29, 2023

Week’s News

Dam It

June 6, 2023June 7, 2023

Zeitgeist 2023

June 3, 2023June 5, 2023

US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

Rallies And Epochs

May 31, 2023June 1, 2023

China’s Rebound ‘Over’ Amid Dour Data, ‘Miserable’ Stocks

May 31, 2023June 2, 2023

Most Read

  • Zeitgeist 2023
    Zeitgeist 2023
  • Lessons From The Apparent Nord Stream Coverup
    Lessons From The Apparent Nord Stream Coverup
  • Dam It
    Dam It
  • Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds, 'Undoing' SVB-Inspired Revision
    Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds, 'Undoing' SVB-Inspired Revision
  • Chinese Economy Can't Win For Losing
    Chinese Economy Can't Win For Losing

Recent Comments

  • John Liu on Canada Restarts Rate Hikes, Warns Inflation ‘Could Get Stuck’ Higher
  • fredm421 on Lessons From The Apparent Nord Stream Coverup
  • John Liu on ‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case
  • John Liu on ‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case
  • Emptynester on Dam It

Monthly Letters

Deterioration, Dissolution And Default

May 29, 2023May 29, 2023

Reinventing Wheels

April 23, 2023May 29, 2023

Lost At Sea

March 11, 2023April 29, 2023

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