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Author: therealheisenberg

Market Breadth Warnings Are Back

July 8, 2025

We’re back to fretting over market breadth. It’s an all-too-familiar concern for US equities, and

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Goldman’s Kostin Knows How To Play The Game

July 8, 2025July 8, 2025

If you’re a sell-sider with responsibility for the official house S&P call, there’s really only

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As America Hits ‘Debt Wall,’ Get Ready For Shorter Cycles

July 7, 2025

What happens to business cycles when fiscal policy’s constrained such that it can’t act as

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Melee

July 7, 2025July 7, 2025

Did you get your letter? Shigeru Ishiba and Lee Jae Myung got theirs. Donald Trump

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Fiat Money And The Bonds

July 7, 2025July 8, 2025

How bad of an investment are bonds? I’m not making an especially profound observation when

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How Seriously Should We Take Elon Musk’s ‘America Party’?

July 7, 2025

On a lot of levels, Elon Musk’s an unserious person. So, even if he’s serious

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One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins

July 6, 2025July 8, 2025

If it seems to you like corporate America — and here I mean big corporate

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Unpaused

July 6, 2025July 7, 2025

The macro calendar’s basically empty in the US this week. The Fed will release minutes

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The Context For Trump’s Fed Takeover Bid

July 5, 2025

There are a few different ways to think about Donald Trump’s increasingly brazen efforts to

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The Dollar’s Relationship To US Stocks Is Changing

July 5, 2025July 7, 2025

If you’re immersed in the market zeitgeist, you’ve probably heard all you care to by

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Letters And Deadlines

July 4, 2025July 7, 2025

“We’re going to start sending letters out to various countries tomorrow.” So said Donald Trump

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Persona Non Grata

July 4, 2025July 6, 2025

Now we’ll never know where the bomb fuel is. 22 years on from Mohamed ElBaradei’s

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So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

July 3, 2025July 6, 2025

Wall Street headed into Friday’s US holiday on track for another solid weekly gain. And

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8 Comments on So… What’s The Bear Case Now?

‘Solid’ US Jobs Report Is Optical Illusion

July 3, 2025July 5, 2025

The US economy added more jobs than expected last month, and you can thank state

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Decent PMI Headlines Belie Underlying Stagflation

July 3, 2025July 4, 2025

The last of this week’s top-tier US macro releases sent mixed messages about the largest

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Hustle

July 2, 2025July 2, 2025

2025 Georgia in the summer. What can you say about it? It’s hot. The whole

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Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World

July 2, 2025July 4, 2025

I suppose this goes without saying, but there’s still a lot of angst out there

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Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

Private sector employers in the US — that’d be the businesses on whose shoulders job

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2025 Is Worst Year For Job Cuts Since Pandemic

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

There was good news and bad news from Wednesday’s monthly update on job cut announcements

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Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock

July 2, 2025July 3, 2025

Quick, refi! Mortgage rates in the US slipped below 6.80% on the MBA’s gauge in

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Trump Tax Bill Hands Richest 0.1% A $120,000 Annual Raise

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

You gotta hand it to Republicans: Four decades on from the Reagan Revolution, they’ve distilled

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Foreigners Are Still Saying ‘No Thank You’ To US Stocks, Bonds

July 1, 2025

In “US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?” I recapped H1 equity fund flows on the

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Blame Game

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

Jerome Powell on Tuesday blamed Donald Trump for the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in

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Restaurant, Hotel Job Openings Soar Second-Most Ever

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

Don’t look now, but job openings across the US economy just jumped the most since

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Another Month, Another Discouraging Read On American Manufacturing

July 1, 2025July 2, 2025

US manufacturing activity contracted again last month amid subdued hiring and pervasive upward pressure on

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A Quarter To Remember

June 30, 2025

Here’s hoping you bought the dip. US equities on Monday closed out Q2 with a

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By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates

June 30, 2025July 1, 2025

In my macro preview for this week, I suggested Jerome Powell might be facing a

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Hustle

July 2, 2025July 2, 2025

Imagined Pasts

May 31, 2025June 16, 2025

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