Maybe the US consumer isn’t feeling so terrible after all. Despite an underwhelming preliminary read on the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge for October, a
Author: therealheisenberg
Median New Home Price Hits $409,000 As Sales Surge
New home sales were more robust than expected in September, data out Tuesday showed. Sales of new, single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual
McElligott Delivers The Real Takeaway From Tesla Fireworks
At regular intervals, I feel compelled to remind market participants that things don’t really work the way most people think they do. As I put
China Tells Evergrande Founder To Pay Debt With Personal Wealth
China has an idea for Evergrande. Hui Ka Yan should help pay the company’s debt. Out of his personal wealth. It’s a novel idea. Billionaires
The Facebook Papers: We’re Not Asking The Right Questions
It’s difficult for me to get excited about the latest deluge of damning revelations about the myriad deleterious side effects of using Facebook. I realize
‘Persona Non Grata’: Erdogan Recycles Playbook
Last week, following a second consecutive rate cut from Turkey’s hopelessly beholden central bank, I suggested another mini-crisis was imminent and noted that these episodic
Crowded Bearish Rates Trade Poses ‘Major Market Reversal Risk’
Last week, I wrote that seemingly everyone has coalesced around some variation on a bearish rates theme. It was hardly a novel observation. Between inflation
‘Epidemic’ Is A Relative Term
Traders and investors were greeted by proliferating coverage of China’s latest COVID outbreak as the new week dawned. State-run CCTV said more than 35,000 people
Rational Decision-Making
Referendums and elections are always about human feelings, not about human rationality. If democracy were a matter of rational decision-making, there would be absolutely no
‘It’s Come To This’: Beyond The Great Supply Chain Crisis
If rates are losing the plot due to the impossibility of mapping the interplay between inflation, growth and monetary policy in an unprecedented macro environment,
Stagflation Week (Losing The Plot)
The market’s stagflation obsession will be on full display this week as GDP reports out of the US and Europe are parsed for signs of
‘The System Has Become Over-Optimized’
In “Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All,” I contextualized the Bank of England’s rate hike trial balloons by reference to markets which, over a dozen
Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All
I doubt Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan was aware of this when he compelled central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu to cut rates at October’s policy meeting,
Never Call The Top
Global equities enjoyed the largest inflow in five weeks as US stocks trekked towards new record highs. Equity funds took in nearly $25 billion over
US Inflation Shows ‘No Signs Of Abating’ In October
US services sector activity was more robust than anticipated in early October. Or something. It’s hard to say these days. Especially when assessing the situation
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