Core Inflation Comes In Cool Again, As Good News Accumulates

Good news. More of it.

Core inflation in the US ran cooler than expected in April, this week’s marquee macro release showed.

Underlying price growth was 0.2% (0.237% unrounded) last month, the BLS said Tuesday. Consensus was 0.3%.

Coming as it does on the heels of a very benign March readout, the release suggests price pressures had indeed eased when Donald Trump braved a rewrite of the global trade rules. Core inflation was steady at 2.8% measured on a YoY basis in April.

The details of Tuesday’s release were pretty favorable. The grocery gauge showed the first meaningful decline since March of 2023, and the largest drop since September of 2020. Eggs helped. That index dropped almost 13%, in news that’ll please Trump. (He’s obsessed with eggs. Or, “EGGS!!!” as he’d put it.)

In the core categories, new car prices were flat, used vehicle prices fell again, as did apparel costs. All of those indexes will be impacted by the tariffs, though, so maybe take the declines with a few grains of salt (sprinkled atop a relatively cheaper EGG!!!).

The shelter index posted a 0.3% advance after a very low 0.1% increase the prior month. The unrounded OER and rent of primary residence prints were 0.357% and 0.268%, respectively. The transportation services gauge posted its first MoM increase since January, but at 0.1% it was benign.

All in all, this was a favorable release. For markets, for consumers, for the Fed and, I dare say, for Main Street. The headline, all-items YoY CPI print — i.e., “inflation” as regular people define it — was 2.31129%, the coolest since February of 2021.

Oh, and although the CPI-derived “supercore” measures were warmer on a MoM basis versus March’s declines, they remained consistent with 2% annual, underlying services price growth at 0.2% (rounded down).


 

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