If you were looking to US factory floors for evidence to support a bullish domestic
Author: therealheisenberg
Revisionist History
Job creation across the US economy slowed to a relative crawl over the last three
Apple Impresses. Amazon Worries With Profit Guide
Amazon topped estimates and guided ahead of the Street for current-quarter sales, but I don’t
Mission Accomplished?
Deals, Donald Trump’s got ’em. Although Trump on Thursday unveiled steep levies on a hodgepodge
US Labor Costs Are Warming Up Again…
For whatever it’s worth, the Fed’s preferred measure of labor costs in America rose more than
Warm Inflation, Cool Spending Hint At Tariff Impact
Technically, the market already had Thursday’s marquee US macro release in hand. The BEA’s personal
Claims Versus Cuts: Who You Gonna Believe?
Jobless claims are low, job cuts are high. Who you gonna believe? I’m just joking.
Meta, Microsoft Deliver Blowout Quarters
Q2 2025 (it’s actually Q4 for the company’s fiscal year) was Microsoft’s 50th anniversary. The
No Surrender
A “reasonable base case” for tariffs is that their impact on US inflation is a
Fed Keeps Rates On Hold. Waller, Bowman Dissent
The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected, and much to Donald Trump’s chagrin.
Pending Home Sales Disappoint As America’s Housing Malaise Persists
Contract activity in the beleaguered US housing market slipped in June, partially reversing the prior
Trade Distortion Masks A Slowing US Economy
The US economy expanded a brisker-than-expected rate in the second quarter, the first read on
Private Hiring Rebounds In America, To Sighs Of Relief
Private sector employers in the US added 104,000 jobs in July, ADP said Wednesday. That
A $125 Billion Mechanical Bull
Over the past six or so weeks, I’ve been on at length about re-allocation flows
Time To Hedge?
The S&P came into Tuesday having gone 16 straight sessions without an up or down
Tragicomic US Housing Succumbs To ‘Broad-Based Fatigue’
Homes. If you think they’re expensive to buy, just wait until you find out how
Ambiguous JOLTS
Job openings across the US economy mostly reversed the largest gain of 2025 in June,
American Consumers Reticent Amid Lingering Tariff Angst
A key update on US consumer moods managed to beat estimates in data released Tuesday,
Bubble-Spotters
Everyone knows the problem with bubble pronouncements, right? If not, it’s simple: Declaring risk assets
Don’t Hate The Players, Just The Game
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Like most pithy maxims, that old adage prescribes
‘Disappointed’
Donald Trump’s “disappointed” in Vladimir Putin. That’s his word. Trump’s. And I’m sure Putin’s heartbroken.
Fundamentally Speaking…
I’m going to dwell, for another beat, on the fundamentals. How quaint, right? First thing
Gosh, It’s Good To Be A Corporate
At the risk of jinxing things (there’s no such risk; superstition’s for the mentally desperate)
The Busiest Week Of The Year
To say the US macro-market docket will be “busy” in the days ahead would be
‘It’s The Biggest Trade Deal Ever’
“It was the best we could get.” So said Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday,
Dissent(s) Ahoy!
It’s tempting to say there’s no chance of a Fed cut at what, whether anyone
That’s It, I’m Moving To Switzerland
[Editor’s note: I’m making the Weekly available to all readers this week, as I think
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