It’s another holiday week in the US, where Americans will celebrate that fateful day when a cabal of disgruntled settlers declared their willingness to die rather than kick money up to a monarchy an ocean away.

That murderous aversion to taxation lives on in America, even as most of the founding virtues are lost to posterity. (Which is fine. The Founders were among history’s worst hypocrites anyway.)

Congressional Republicans worked through the weekend to resolve intra-party disagreements around Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” the centerpiece of which is, of course, an extension of tax cuts for people who don’t need them.

As a quick reminder, the House version of Trump’s signature legislation would, among other things, reduce annual incomes for the poorest Americans by $1,600 in order to give the richest Americans an extra $12,000 every year. So, it’s hopelessly regressive. I can’t imagine the final bill will be any less absurd on that front.

The US data docket’s full, and it’ll be compressed into four trading days. The June jobs report will be released on Thursday. Economists expect 110,000 from the NFP headline.

Recall that headline hiring surprised to the upside for May even as revisions lopped 95,000 from the prior two months. Assuming no revisions (there are always revisions) and a consensus print for June, the three-month moving average would slip to 132,000.

I’d say headline hiring needs to fall below 100,000 for the Fed to seriously consider a July rate cut but frankly — and I’m not trying to be alarmist here — it feels like Jerome Powell’s losing some of his sway.

I could be wrong, but it felt rebellious for Chris Waller and Miki Bowman to come out publicly in favor of a cut in July when Powell’s given exactly no indication that a move at next month’s meeting is on the cards. Waller’s a somebody. Bowman even more so.

If this round of top-tier US data, including the jobs report for June, ISM manufacturing and, obviously, CPI on July 15, are amenable to a dovish interpretation through the monetary policy lens, I’d expect the messaging to shift in the direction of the July FOMC meeting being “live” for a cut.

Trump’s had (more than) enough of Powell, and he looks poised to announce his pick for Fed Chair “early,” where that means at best, Powell will have to deal with his replacement publicly questioning the Committee’s judgment for as long as eight months. At worst, Trump might try to remove Powell.

Anyway, it’s probably about time the hard data “catches down” in earnest. “There is a rotation occurring from an environment in which the primary source of weaker economic sentiment came from the soft data to a backdrop in which the hard data is beginning to show signs of strain,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked, referencing last week’s weak reads on consumer spending. “The degree to which this translates into materially slower economic growth is unknown, at least for the time being.”

Pretty much all of this week’s data is actually crammed into just three days: Tuesday (ISM manufacturing, JOLTS), Wednesday (Challenger job cuts and ADP which, notably, is seen printing sub-100k for a third month and a fourth in five) and Thursday (NFP, jobless claims and ISM services).

Powell will speak on Tuesday in Sintra, where the ECB’s hosting their annual resort party for central bankers. I wasn’t invited this year, how about you?

Oh, and no one tell Trump that July 4 is a just one giant “No Kings” protest. If he figures that out, he might send troops to your backyard barbecue.