The macro calendar’s basically empty in the US this week.

The Fed will release minutes from the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but the odds of divining anything truly “new” about the Committee’s reaction function from the account of last month’s proceedings are negligible. Policymakers are divided, and the dot plot refresh would have you believe seven officials see no cuts in 2025. I don’t think that’s a sustainable position, particularly not in the presence of withering criticism from The White House.

A cut at this month’s meeting might be off the table given last week’s optically decent read on US hiring, but frankly, I’m a little surprised at the extent to which macro watchers and mainstream financial media outlets gave the June jobs report a pass. It wasn’t a strong release, and I don’t mean in the sense that if you’re a determined bear, you can always find something to nitpick. State and local governments hired more than the entire private sector. That’s not a nitpick, it’s a glaring issue for Republicans bent on “re-privatizing” the US economy.

With the caveat that cutting could be counterproductive for longer end bond yields as discussed the latest Weekly, I personally think the Fed should move this month. A lot can happen in the long wait between the July FOMC and September’s SEP meeting. Last year, the Fed declined an opportunity to cut in July and within days, the Nikkei crashed 12% and the VIX jumped the most on record.

Anyway, the only other notables on the macro docket this week are the NY Fed consumer poll (Tuesday) and jobless claims on Thursday.

The biggest scheduled event isn’t a data release, it’s a deadline. Specifically, the expiration of Donald Trump’s tariff “pause” on July 9. That’s when the administration will set tariffs unilaterally for any country which hasn’t negotiated a bilateral deal with Trump.

Late last week, Trump said Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent were in the process of sending “letters” to countries which’ll be paying an administered (i.e., a non-negotiated) rate. It seems very likely that major US trading partners who don’t manage to conclude a deal by Wednesday will get some manner of extension.

As a reminder, Trump’s managed to cobble together just two “deals” in 90 days, and I use the term “deal” very loosely. Vietnam and the UK placated Trump, but the arrangements they agreed to are just that: Arrangements. They’re not proper “deals.”

The figure below gives you a sense of how truly farcical this charade really is. What Trump’s threatening isn’t doable.

I don’t pretend to know how this’ll all play out, but I do know it isn’t possible for Trump to raise tariffs that far without destabilizing markets and the global economy.

Remember: He already tried this. Back in April. It didn’t work. The S&P fell 15% in 15 hours of cash trading and the Treasury market seized up. That’s why the can was kicked to July 9. That’s why we’re talking about this today.

Trump last week indicated that whatever tariffs he decides on this week will kick in at the beginning of next month. “The money will start to come into the United States on August 1,” he said.

That’s a willful misdirection. There’s no money “coming into” America. That money’s already here. It’s US importers who pay the tariffs. Trump’s spent decades dancing around that, but like all facts, it’s unavoidable in the end.

The chart below’s just a friendly reminder: Trade uncertainty, as measured by the category-specific EPU, is off the charts under Trump.

He claims this is all “3-D chess” — part and parcel of a grand plan predicated on “the art of the deal.” In fact, it’s just senseless bullsh-t, and everyone, including a lot of the people carrying Trump’s water, knows it.

Obviously, traders will be compelled to grapple in the days ahead with a lot of all-caps pontificating from Trump on TruthSocial, where any and all important trade developments will be broadcast first. This is under-appreciated, but TruthSocial’s just another means for Trump to commercialize the US presidency. His own social media company has a built-in monopoly on important news about US policy, foreign and domestic.

Trump posted 28 times on TruthSocial over the past 36 hours. Only one of those posts was about the floods in Texas.