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Author: therealheisenberg

From Melt-Up To Bubble Watch

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

It’s fair to say the melt-up materialized. That’d be the equity melt-up I spent the

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15 Comments on From Melt-Up To Bubble Watch

I’m Doing Great, How Are You?

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

I’m doing great, how are you? One of the great tragedies of Donald Trump’s populism

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8 Comments on I’m Doing Great, How Are You?

Free Rein

July 25, 2025July 27, 2025

I’m pretty tired by now of hearing about what Donald Trump “can” and “can’t” do.

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28 Comments on Free Rein

Caution: Men Working

July 24, 2025July 26, 2025

I promised myself I wasn’t going to write about Donald Trump’s publicity stunt at the

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11 Comments on Caution: Men Working

Before The Fall, A Blow-Off Top?

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

Are US equities approaching a “blow-off” top ahead of the traditional late-summer vol expansion and

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7 Comments on Before The Fall, A Blow-Off Top?

America’s New Home Inventory Bloat Reaches Epic Proportions

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

The pace of new home sales in the US barely rose in June leaving the

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2 Comments on America’s New Home Inventory Bloat Reaches Epic Proportions

About Those ‘Urgent’ Rate Cuts…

July 24, 2025July 25, 2025

There wasn’t much Thursday in the way of evidence to support a US slowdown narrative.

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‘This Guy’s Gotta Go’

July 24, 2025July 24, 2025

“This is literally the government of Japan giving Donald Trump and the America people $550

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6 Comments on ‘This Guy’s Gotta Go’

What Even Is Tesla These Days?

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Remember Tesla? That’s the car company Elon Musk runs when he’s not… well, when he’s

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6 Comments on What Even Is Tesla These Days?

Alphabet’s Spending Plan In Focus After Very Solid Quarter

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Alphabet kicked off Magnificent 7 results with what looked like a solid beat. The company

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1 Comment on Alphabet’s Spending Plan In Focus After Very Solid Quarter

The Fed’s Probably Lost To Us

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s “disenchanted” with Jerome Powell. That’s Johnson’s word. “Disenchanted.” He used it

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7 Comments on The Fed’s Probably Lost To Us

Existing Home Prices Soar To New Record. Sales Torpedoed

July 23, 2025July 23, 2025

Surprise! Existing home sales in the US fell far more than expected last month, according

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5 Comments on Existing Home Prices Soar To New Record. Sales Torpedoed

A Concept Of A Deal

July 23, 2025July 24, 2025

Japan will invest $550 billion — equivalent, roughly, to a bazillion, gagillion yen — in

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16 Comments on A Concept Of A Deal

What A Weak Dollar Means For Corporate Bottom Lines

July 22, 2025July 22, 2025

These are the sessions — hot summer sessions when everybody who’s anybody is on vacation

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Should The Fed Just Give Up? After All, Everyone Else Has

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

More or less everyone’s lost their minds in America. I get that. And most people

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19 Comments on Should The Fed Just Give Up? After All, Everyone Else Has

The Fundamentals Are Sound

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

The fundamentals are sound. Said everyone in the days and weeks before every market crash

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1 Comment on The Fundamentals Are Sound

Resilient And Serene

July 22, 2025July 23, 2025

“Economic vitals are proving resilient” and markets are “oddly serene.” That sentence is spliced together

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4 Comments on Resilient And Serene

What’s The Bet?

July 21, 2025July 21, 2025

It’ll all work out ok in the end. That’s how US equities — which powered

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1 Comment on What’s The Bet?

Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

July 21, 2025July 23, 2025

Equity investors, for better or worse, have stopped listening to Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The

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1 Comment on Stocks’ Advice On Tariff Man: Just Ignore Him

What Do Trump, Bessent And Warsh Have In Mind For The Fed?

July 21, 2025July 22, 2025

The writing’s on the wall, and it’s so large by now that Stevie Wonder could

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8 Comments on What Do Trump, Bessent And Warsh Have In Mind For The Fed?

Powell Persecution Is Martin Niemöller Moment For Wall Street

July 21, 2025July 22, 2025

Nobody has to “explain” anything to Donald Trump. Not you, not me and certainly not

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7 Comments on Powell Persecution Is Martin Niemöller Moment For Wall Street

The Japan Canary

July 20, 2025July 22, 2025

“I continue to have a number of duties I must fulfill for the nation,” Shigeru

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2 Comments on The Japan Canary

ECB Takes Center Stage As Tariff Clock Ticks

July 20, 2025July 21, 2025

This’ll be a pretty light week on the data front in the US, which is

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Watch Tokyo

July 20, 2025July 21, 2025

We may have a problem in Tokyo. Last week, I contextualized another steep selloff in

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1 Comment on Watch Tokyo

‘Who’ To Thank For Stocks’ Blind Eye To Powell Drama

July 19, 2025July 21, 2025

I try to strike a healthy balance between characterizing (“caricaturing” is probably more apt on

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6 Comments on ‘Who’ To Thank For Stocks’ Blind Eye To Powell Drama

Sorry, Chris. He’s Still Not Going To Pick You

July 18, 2025July 20, 2025

Poor Chris Waller. If there’s anything more pathetic than a man pandering to another man

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3 Comments on Sorry, Chris. He’s Still Not Going To Pick You

When You’re In A Hole, Stop Building

July 18, 2025July 20, 2025

The first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, you stop digging. US

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2 Comments on When You’re In A Hole, Stop Building

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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