Gosh. It was worse than I expected. Considerably worse, actually.

Last weekend, while previewing this week’s macro slate, I suggested University of Michigan sentiment, and the inflation expectation series which accompany the report, would show some improvement in the preliminary readouts for May.

“I hesitate to say things can’t possibly get any worse on those metrics, but the April vintage had a solid claim on being the worst release ever,” I wrote, before joking that based on extensive personal experience, “rock-bottom’s a solid foundation for a recovery.”

I should’ve heeded some of the wisest words ever spoken: Things can always get worse. And they did on Friday, when the initial read on Michigan sentiment printed 50.8, erasing the upward headline revision in the final print for April and missing consensus by a mile. The expectations gauge sank to 46.5. That, friends, is awful.

As the figure shows, that measure of Americans’ outlook has now recorded back-to-back 45-year lows.

The survey period did capture the US-China trade truce. Interviews were conducted from April 22 to May 13. That means at least some responses incorporated the dialing-down of tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

And yet, as survey director Joanne Hsu remarked, “signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs were too small to alter the overall picture [and] consumers continue to express somber views about the economy.”

Before you write this off to partisanship, note that sentiment among Republicans fell 7% in May, fully offsetting a “slight” improvement among independents. Hsu emphasized that household assessments of personal finances dove 10% as Americans fretted over the prospect of lower incomes.

It’s hard to overstate how quickly the bottom fell out for the expectations gauge mentioned above. Just after Trump was elected, that index sat at 76.9. It’s down nearly 31 points since then.

As the figure shows, we’re now witnessing the second-most pronounced (i.e., rapid) deterioration in household expectations for the US economy in half a century.

Consider this: The share of consumers now expecting more joblessness over the next year is for all intents and purposes the same as it was during the most forlorn days of the financial crisis. The same’s true of medium-term (i.e., five years out) job loss perceptions.

Simply put: If you thought the so-called “vibecession” was bad under Joe Biden, you hadn’t seen anything yet. Of course, unlike Biden, Trump’s almost surely going to preside over an actual NBER-defined recession. In fact, America’s probably already in one.

And do note: The inflation expectations series in the Michigan poll worsened again this month. That situation’s so bad now that it demands its own dedicated article, which I’ll deliver posthaste.