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Anomaly
Is the US in a recession? Who knows. Probably. Some sort of recession. The sun's setting on somethin
See FTSE USD IBOR Cash Fallbacks data
https://www.lseg.com/en/ftse-russell/benchmarks/usd-ibor-cash-fallbacks/usd-ibor-consumer-cash-fallbacks-sofr-compound-in-advance-summary
On 02 May 2025, the 12-month rate was 4.47740%
On 15 May 2025, the 12-month rate was 4.80518%
Seems like the immediate effects of tariffs are the Stag (see above) and the obvious tail effects will be the flation. By the time Trump either fires Powell or he leaves at the end of his term the Fed won’t be able to lower rates enough to get us out of this manufactured mess.
My impression of my milieu (middle class and upper-middle class millennials) is that we are all despondent over the state of the world but having two or three kids anyway and are now coming into our prime earning years and firing bazookas and machine guns into the economy – cars, houses, appliances, furniture, electronics, bikes, toys, clothes, fuggin sunglasses and espresso machines and PS4s and soccer cleats. Like so much crap. And we’re all doing it. Millennials are a large demographic group, too. Meaning I wonder if there is an inelastic demand impulse hidden beneath the suspect survey data. Perhaps the rise of the millennials will propel the American economy into the post Boomer epoch.
As a millenial parent, I was going to argue that I hate all the crap, but then I remembered how much the kids’ grandparents, aunts, uncles, and even my wife seem to buy the things you listed. Granted, we are among those fortunate enough to have plenty of disposable income.
If it were up to me, I’d rather save that money and retire early into a teaching or small business owner career, but others are clearly addicted to hitting that checkout button.
Fellow older millennial here can confirm… I have or will have purchased virtually all the items you outlined whether I want to or not due to kids. Two of them… My little broke blessings! 🙂