Steel yourself. This could be a tediously slow week on the macro front.
The data docket in the US is almost completely empty, and it’s mid-May. No data and hot weather makes Jack a dull boy.
On the “bright” side, Donald Trump’s a dependable source of volatility. Maybe he’ll break up the monotony with some new trespass. A quick check of the presidential social media feed found Trump up early Sunday wading through a motley collection of unhinged musings from his TruthSocial followers including “Democratsux63” who’s worried about James Comey promoting political violence and “SpiritualStreetfighter” who, in addition to a comic book depiction of Trump wielding a broadsword, posted a picture of Barack Obama with the caption “Retruth if you want public military tribunals.” (The irony of lamenting Comey’s Instagram post while calling for Obama to be hauled in front of a death panel was surely lost on the president.)
As a quick aside, Comey was questioned by the Secret Service at Kristi Noem’s direction and Tulsi Gabbard, who I suppose had to take down the Bashar al-Assad oil painting in her office after Trump met with Ahmad al-Sharaa last week, wants Comey imprisoned. All for arranging some sea shells to read “eighty-six forty-seven.” If you’ve ever been around any kitchens — or really just any chefs — you know how absurd this Comey kerfuffle is. If a chef shouts “eighty-six scallops!” he’s not calling for scallops to be murdered, he’s telling the waitstaff to stop selling the scallop dish because he’s out of scallops.
Hillary Clinton voters will attest that Comey can exercise poor judgement at times, this debacle being just the latest example. But as an Ivy League scholar of slang told The New York Times, “without any very specific indication that [malice is intended], you’d never assume” malice from someone who uses the term “eighty-six.” The same scholar described the idea that Comey was calling for Trump’s untimely demise “completely preposterous.”
It’s also some kind of preposterous (maybe not “completely,” but at least a little bit) that “scholar with a specialty in slang” is a paid profession. Amusingly in the context of “Trump 2.0,” this particular academic is an adjust at Columbia. Maybe Trump should break someone’s knees up there or cancel a grant until the university’s world-renowned slang department agrees to testify against Comey at “SpiritualStreetfighter”‘s military tribunals. (The jokes really do write themselves.)
Anyway, there are just three US macro releases worth mentioning this week, one of which is the preliminary S&P Global PMI for May, due Thursday.
As a reminder, those gauges are clinging to the slowest of expansions. Both the factory and services indexes are loitering just above the 50 demarcation line. Consensus expects US manufacturing slipped into contraction this month, while the services measure is seen holding at or around 51.
Also on Thursday, the NAR will release existing home sales data covering April. The spring home-buying season’s been described by housing aficionados as lackluster. Economists expect a 2% increase in contract signings for previously-owned properties. You might recall that existing home sales plunged nearly 6% in March, the worst showing since 2022.
On Friday, when anyone who’s anybody will be on a beach somewhere getting an early start on Memorial Day weekend, the government will release new home sales data. That’s expected to show a 5% decline.
And that’s about it, folks. If it’s excitement you seek this week, you’ll have to source it from Trump or get it from the geopolitical arena, where Vladimir Putin’s bombing buses and Israel’s readying a new offensive in Gaza codenamed “Operation Gideon’s Chariots.”
“Eighty-six” is also used to refer to customers who have been banned or booted. If the bar manager says, “Eighty-six that loud-mouthed jackass,” it means kick him out.
GOP can bengazi for years. But now they’re even more anti-democratic and bafooninsh. Not to mention more thuggish. Imagine Comey in an El Savador gulag. Maybe we won’t have to imagine that.
Bessent interview says Liberation Day tariffs likely to be reinstated for many countries.
“Welker asked Bessent about Trump’s recent comments that trading partners should expect letters from administration officials outlining what the tariff rate will be and if that signals that negotiations are over.
“This means that they’re not negotiating in good faith. They are going to get a letter saying, ‘Here is the rate.’ So, I was expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith,” the secretary said.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5306258-bessent-warns-tariff-liberation-day-rates/
If the “deals by letters” upends the market’s expectation/hope for a 10/50 tariff tax regime, that could count as excitement.
Can we guess who has not been, in the WH’s mind, negotiating in good faith?
My guess is EU, Japan among them.
Japan’s frustration is so palpable. They tried, God knows they did. I’m a Japanophile. Lived there for a year. I can see them being on the list, but I hope not.
The EU is definitely on the list. Vance and the other Russophiles all have it in for the EU.
I anticipate that Vietnam will not like the letter they get. Apart from their obvious role as a trade barrier circumvention hub for China, I suspect that deep down, Trump’s embarrassed about his shin splints and blames Vietnam for them.
Beyond that? Columbia maybe. South Africa. That island where those fascist seals are lording it over the oppressed penguin freedom fighters.
Not Russia though.
South Korea probably too.
Gosh, who isn’t on the list of likely bad faith negotiatees?
I think “Liberation Day: The Sequel” will be as much of a flop as the OG.
Will caebon-based investors & specs simply shrug off DJT’s threat against Walmart on Saturday? As T-Dog nicely laid out in “Where’s the Next Bull Market”, the company did not appear to be acting rapiously like Pepsico did a few years back as Covid waned.
Or will the street “analysts” so beloved by our Dear Leader, continue to parrot the riduculous assertion that Trump is business-friendly?
If you had to pick the company least vulnerable to Trump retribution, WMT might be it.
The GOAT “scholar with a specialty in slang?”
Surely Sugarpuss O’Shea…
https://youtu.be/eDjYPOk5wMg?si=8Sije0DnTPtDlk61