Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

The flows rotation out of US shares and into RoW equities paused over the last week.

Or, actually, it’s more accurate to say investors bought stocks across the board, and when there’s across-the-board stock-buying, US equities are going to see outsized inflows given the sheer size of the market.

However you want to frame it, US-focused ETFs and mutual funds took in nearly $20 billion, snapping a four-week run of outflows and bringing the YTD net inflow to almost $157 billion.

But, as the figure above shows, the chunky inflow to US stocks didn’t come at the expense of other markets. Indeed, inflows to Europe and DM-focused funds more generally proceeded apace.

European shares have now seen inflows in 12 of the last 14 weeks. So far for 2025, Europe-focused stock funds have taken in a net $42 billion.

Opinions vary on whether and to what extent the Trump administration’s actions over the past three months risk prompting meaningful outflows from US assets. Certainly, a lot of folks are irritable with or annoyed at Trump. But there aren’t a lot of great alternatives to US equites and there are no good alternatives to USTs and the dollar.

So, who knows. As BofA’s Michael Hartnett — who’s skeptical of “buyers’ strike” narratives — noted in his latest, US-focused funds remain on track for their second-largest annual haul ever, as illustrated by the figure on the left, below.

And yet, as the figure on the right shows, European shares are also on pace for a very large influx in 2025.

For what it’s worth, Paul Singer suspects Trump’s policies risk hurting the dollar’s reputation. In an April letter, Elliott Management said Trump’s risking “capital flight” and “significant” dollar depreciation.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

One thought on “Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

  1. 401(k), etc., if and when an inflation does take hold, at a certain point, today’s household budget will put retirement to a backseat. A recession will have people drawing on those accounts.

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon