The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most rapid drawdowns in a century.

I’ve been over this before, so I won’t recapitulate other than to remind readers that during 15 hours of cash trading from the opening bell on April 3 through noon on April 7, the S&P 500 was down 15%.

So, Donald Trump’s tariff threats succeeded in lopping 1% off the benchmark for every hour the market was open for two and half business days after “Liberation Day.” As noted here previously, had stocks closed at or near the lows on April 7 (they didn’t), Trump would’ve held the land speed record for fastest time to -15% since 1940 barring only 1987.

We’re probably supposed to consider that water under the bridge at this point, stocks having retraced their 2025 losses to trade within 5% of their February highs and such. But it really isn’t — water under the bridge, I mean.

“Does this mean the risks have evaporated?” Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer asked, in a note published Wednesday. By “this” he meant the easing of US-China trade tensions and a commensurately better (i.e., less foreboding) global growth outlook.

Oppenheimer’s question was rhetorical. The risks have not, in fact, “evaporated.” “Despite the welcome news on tariffs, they remain higher than before ‘Liberation Day,’ with the US effective rate settling at 13%,” he wrote.

The figure below’s useful, I think, if for no other reason than it gives you some context for just how squirrelly stocks really were in April.

The drawdown (in orange) was tracking the average bear market trajectory (in navy blue) right up until Trump’s April 2 tariff unveil, at which point the down-trade blew through the lower band (blue shaded-area).

“While the equity market correction, which was unusually rapid, has been consistent with an ‘event-driven’ bear market, the average profile of these bear markets remains flat at best for some time after the initial fall,” Oppenheimer went on, suggesting any gains from here are “likely to be limited.”

In addition, he cautioned, “there remain significant risks that as hard data deteriorates, investors put a higher probability on a recessionary outcome leaving markets vulnerable to another correction.”

For whatever it’s worth to you, Goldman remains Overweight cash and Neutral stocks in their model portfolio.