US retail sales came up short where it counted on a day when Walmart warned US shoppers to expect meaningful tariff-related price hikes starting this month.

Although the headline print from the Census Bureau’s release showed nominal spending ticked up in April versus March, a key underlying measure betrayed a surprise decline.

So-called “control group” sales slipped 0.2% last month against expectations for a 0.3% advance. That miss should weigh on Q2 GDP tracking.

On the headline, sales managed a 0.1% uptick. Economists expected no change. The release came packaged with historical revisions.

Recall that nominal spending was buoyed in March by a pull-forward effect ahead of Donald Trump’s auto tariffs. Sales at car dealerships ticked lower in April after rising nearly 6% the prior month. Excluding autos, sales rose slightly, disappointing economists hoping for a more pronounced increase.

Just five of 13 categories in the April report showed a gain. That’s not great. The only meaningful advances were in building materials & garden equipment (think spring) and restaurants & drinking places, the report’s only services sector category.

Overall, this wasn’t an especially auspicious release. It wasn’t a disaster by any stretch, and indeed I doubt it’ll garner many headlines considering everything else going on in the world, but it suggests the consumption impulse was cautious last month amid a deluge of foreboding tariff news.

On Thursday morning, Walmart CFO David Rainey told Bloomberg that price hikes are inevitable. “If you [haven’t] already seen it, it will happen in May,” he said. “And then it will become more pronounced.”

But hey, look at the bright side: As long as volume holds up, higher goods prices will boost nominal sales! #Winning