Yuck.

That’s one word to describe Thursday’s update on US homebuilder sentiment.

I suppose no one, least of all an incorrigible pessimist like myself, should be surprised. As discussed here on Wednesday, the spring home-buying season isn’t exactly gangbusters in 2025.

Still, 34 on the NAHB headline counts as really rough. Specifically, it’s tied for the worst print since December of 2022.

As the figure shows, the MoM decline in May was the largest in a year.

A big part of this is the affordability crisis bedeviling millions of renters who’re having to redefine — or at least postpone indefinitely — the “American dream” given high rates and record prices.

Builders, you’ll recall, are sitting on a lot of unsold homes. The figure below gives you some historical context for that situation.

As I never tire of reminding readers, there’s a carrying cost associated with that inventory and that cost is a drag on margins. So, builders need to get out from under it, but that entails offering incentives to stretched buyers. And what are incentives? Also lost margin.

Beyond that, no one likes the tariffs. I mean, look, I realize the Trump voters among you are tired of hearing the tariffs scapegoated for everyone’s problems, but bear in mind: If anyone voted with you for Trump, it’s homebuilders. These are people with cardboard cutouts of Trump in their offices. Literally. I’ve seen them.

If the builders are telling you tariffs are a problem, tariffs are a problem. And that’s what they’re telling you.

“Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said Thursday.

The good news is, the NAHB poll’s conducted early in the month, which means May’s lackluster headline doesn’t capture what was surely a collective sigh of relief from respondents when the US and China announced a 90-day truce.

“The overwhelming majority of survey responses came before the tariff reduction announcement,” NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes remarked, adding that “builders expect future trade negotiations and progress on tax policy will help stabilize the economic outlook and strengthen housing demand.”

Here’s hoping, Buddy. But at some point, the “stop-and-start,” to quote Dietz, nature of Trump’s policymaking needs to give way to some modicum of stability. Really it does. Otherwise, businesses can’t plan.