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Author: therealheisenberg

Claims About Jobs

February 9, 2023February 9, 2023

A week later, market participants are still asking questions about an anomalous US jobs report.

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Russia Threatens ‘Consequences’ Over Hersh Nord Stream Tale

February 9, 2023February 10, 2023

A “disgusting crime.” That’s what Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov called the “unsolved” mystery

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6 Comments on Russia Threatens ‘Consequences’ Over Hersh Nord Stream Tale

Meme Melee Cost Credit Suisse $80 Billion In Outflows, Results Suggest

February 9, 2023February 10, 2023

Unfounded rumors about Credit Suisse’s solvency contributed to a larger-than-expected CHF110.5 billion outflow during Q4.

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3 Comments on Meme Melee Cost Credit Suisse $80 Billion In Outflows, Results Suggest

Chinese Balloon Part Of Global Military Spy Program: US Officials

February 8, 2023February 8, 2023

The Chinese surveillance balloon Joe Biden shot down last week was part of a global

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1 Comment on Chinese Balloon Part Of Global Military Spy Program: US Officials

Hope Versus Reality In A Broken System

February 8, 2023February 9, 2023

During his State of the Union address, Joe Biden lamented the slow demise of the

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10 Comments on Hope Versus Reality In A Broken System

Half-Empty

February 8, 2023

It’s hard to know whether to cheer slower consumer credit growth in the world’s largest

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‘Surreal’ Tech Rally Vulnerable To Reality Check, Some Worry

February 8, 2023February 9, 2023

As you might’ve noticed recently, equities aren’t inclined to believe central banks when it comes

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4 Comments on ‘Surreal’ Tech Rally Vulnerable To Reality Check, Some Worry

AI Frenzy Rekindles Story Stock Mania

February 8, 2023

It’s a junk rally! Not in high yield (well, there too now that you mention

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Tragicomedy: UK Stocks Hit Record On BP Bonanza While 7 Million Can’t Pay Bills

February 8, 2023February 9, 2023

I have an affinity for tragicomedy. Probably because my own life blends elements of the

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4 Comments on Tragicomedy: UK Stocks Hit Record On BP Bonanza While 7 Million Can’t Pay Bills

Optimistic, Hopeful, Forward-Looking People

February 7, 2023February 17, 2023

If a house divided against itself can’t stand, I don’t know what happens to a

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3 Comments on Optimistic, Hopeful, Forward-Looking People

A ‘Lost Opportunity’

February 7, 2023February 7, 2023

It wasn’t what he said. It was what he didn’t say. Jerome Powell had an

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1 Comment on A ‘Lost Opportunity’

‘Nuanced’

February 7, 2023February 13, 2023

If Jerome Powell was concerned about the criticism he garnered last week for failing to

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8 Comments on ‘Nuanced’

What Kashkari Knows For Sure That Just Ain’t So

February 7, 2023February 7, 2023

Fed officials are uncomfortable with the combination of easier financial conditions and a red-hot US

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1 Comment on What Kashkari Knows For Sure That Just Ain’t So

What’s Really Behind The Tech Layoffs?

February 7, 2023February 15, 2023

Much has been made recently of the apparent disparity between layoffs in the tech sector

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9 Comments on What’s Really Behind The Tech Layoffs?

An Atypical Development

February 7, 2023February 7, 2023

I doubt markets will make much of this, but it was worth noting on Tuesday

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Chasing The Price And Forgetting The Fundamentals

February 7, 2023February 7, 2023

I’ve mentioned this on several occasions of late, but it’s worth repeating: Career risk is

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No Pausing Down Under

February 7, 2023February 7, 2023

Last week, the ECB and the Bank of England both tipped pauses in their respective

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Japanese Workers See Biggest Pay Gain In Quarter Century

February 7, 2023February 8, 2023

Early last month, I asked if the “permafrost” was finally thawing in Japan. Fast Retailing

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Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds To 25%

February 6, 2023February 6, 2023

Goldman was already on the low end of the range when it comes to recession

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JPMorgan Warns Risks Shifting Towards Even Higher Rate Peaks

February 6, 2023February 7, 2023

“Chaotic.” That’s how JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic described last week’s price action, torn

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3 Comments on JPMorgan Warns Risks Shifting Towards Even Higher Rate Peaks

Terminal Correction

February 6, 2023February 7, 2023

I have some potentially distressing news for those who might’ve gone all-in on the notion

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Rally Music Or Siren Song?

February 6, 2023February 6, 2023

Investors are getting “drawn in.” So said JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka on Monday. “Drawn in” has

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Is The Dow Trying To Tell Us Something?

February 6, 2023February 7, 2023

Is the Dow’s relative underperformance versus the S&P in 2023 trying to tell us something

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Chinese Aid For Russia Suggests Ukraine Is Deadly Dress Rehearsal

February 6, 2023February 6, 2023

One — perhaps the — key geopolitical question in 2023 is whether Moscow is overplaying

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2 Comments on Chinese Aid For Russia Suggests Ukraine Is Deadly Dress Rehearsal

2001, 2015, 2008, 2020 And Right Now

February 6, 2023

It’s not over yet, but with 70% of S&P 500 market cap having reported earnings,

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1 Comment on 2001, 2015, 2008, 2020 And Right Now

Is ‘American Utopia’ A Macro Illusion?

February 6, 2023February 15, 2023

“Immaculate disinflation” has a nice ring to it. Angelic, even. But how about “American utopia”?

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Three Stories For 2023’s Everything Rally

February 6, 2023February 6, 2023

There are three stories driving the market in 2023 and those stories are “distinctly different.”

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4 Comments on Three Stories For 2023’s Everything Rally

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  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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